What does ‘hitting value’ mean? What number should we assign a player in order for them to achieve value?
Chriseddy, 19th August.
Following up from last week’s 150-Rule, this week’s study session goes one step further into the DFS concept of player value.
Without doubt, you would’ve heard the DFS folk constantly refer to a player “hitting value”.
But, what must occur for a player to be deemed “value”?
In this article we’ll revisit a few high-school maths concepts! But don’t worry, it’s nothing too dramatic.
By the end of this article, you should have an answer to the following:
- How do we calculate value?
- Is there an easy formula or process that provides a ‘pass or fail’ mark depending on a player’s salary and score? (hint: yes)
- How does the ‘pass-mark’ figure change for players of different salaries?
- What kinds of figures do our players need to achieve to win a GPP? (next week)
- What about a H2H? What about a 6-man? (next week)
The key takeaway from this article – never think in terms of SCORE again, always think in terms of VALUE.
Righto, no messing about. Let’s dive straight into it!
Value as a simple mathematical formula
This is the one to put up on your bedroom wall:
Let’s use an example to clarify this equation:
Lance Franklin scores a whopping 120 points at the price tag of $11,110. What’s his value?
Let’s do the math!
Value = (120/11,110)*1,000 = ???
…waiting 2 minutes for you to dust off that old calculator and check this yourself!
Did you get 10.8 as your answer?
Great! This is Lance Franklin’s value returned from his 120 point score at a salary of $11,110!
So this is how we assess a player’s performance when looking back on it.
Now, what about when we’re assessing a player’s upcoming performance?
Luckily for us, the formula is exactly the same!
You just use a projected score instead of an actual score, since the player hasn’t actually played yet.
Easy, right? It’s the exact same formula.
You’ll notice our ‘value’ column in the Lineup Genius is exactly this; a simple function of the player’s projected score and salary!
All good with that?
Let’s crack on to the nexty…
What is an acceptable value return?
Right, so now that we know how to calculate a player’s value (or projected value), how do we actually use this to improve our DFS strategies?
The first port of call is to understand what typical value figures are expected from each player.
For those who prefer to skim read, the 150-rule a nutshell:
Take any Draftstars player’s salary and divide it by 150. Use this figure as a loose guideline to what the player needs to score in order to “hit value”.
* applies to AFL contests only
Using a little bit of algebra on the value equation, we find that the 150-rule equates to a value of 6.67x
A value return of 6.67x provides a nice, loose reference point to measure our players’ performances.
Consider it the yardstick that you can constantly refer back to with ease.
Here’s how I personally assess whether or not a player is ‘value’ in 3 simple steps:
- Take the player’s salary and divide it by 150 – let’s call the answer to this X.
- Take your X figure and compare it with the player’s projected score, P.
- Make an assessment on the player based off P and X.
You’re analysing the slate when one of your mates slides into your inbox,
“NicNat’s $12k this week mate, reckon he’s value or what?”
Let’s do the maths!
$12,000/150 = 80
This is our X figure.
- Now, we just need a projection to compare it to!
So we head over to the Lineup Genius, where the projections are nice and tight.
We see that NicNat is projected to score a measly 67!
- We know that NicNat needs 80 just to break even, yet he’s only projected to score 67.5?
His projection is well away from his required output here, it’s a pass from us.
“Nah mate” you respond with confidence.
“Needs 80 to breakeven and the boys at the Studs only have him projected for 67. PASS!”
As you probably know, minimum priced players at $5,000 often exceed values of 10x, whereas a $20,000 would be thrilled with achieving a 6x return.
So, how do we assess value based on a player’s salary?
As us geeks like to say, the breakeven points (based off salary) of players is non-linear.
Put simply and intuitively:
A $5k guy needs MORE than 6.67x to hit value and,
A $20k guy needs LESS than 6.67x to hit value.
Remember, the 6.67x (or 150-rule) is just a LOOSE guideline.
If you’re after precision for each salary level, here’s an awesome table by our friends at DFS Australia:
Stick this one up on the back of the toilet door.
“$20k needs 100 points to breakeven. $15k needs 80-odd. $10k needs 55. $5k needs 33.”
Study these numbers until you’re not even thinking about a player’s absolute score. But rather you’re thinking about the score he needs to breakeven.
Score is irrelevant without a salary – VALUE is all that matters.
As with most things DFS related – there are no hard and fast rules behind value figures, they simply provide us guidelines. It’s never as simple as saying, “okay, player Z achieved a value of 7x, that’s great!”. In fact, there are many cases when 7x won’t be a good return at all.
Other factors like field ownership % and positional scarcity play a massive part in determining actual strength of a player’s performance on a given slate.
There are a few more topics we’ll cover in next week’s Study Session, but we’ll leave it there for now as this one is getting THICC.
Hope you guys learn something from this article, next week will be a little more math-heavy, but nothing that you can’t handle!
Enjoy and good luck on the weekend.