A simple AFL Daily Fantasy Trick used by the top professionals

Chris, 14th August.

Hey guys,

Ever hear our content writers refer to “hitting value” and wonder what they mean?

Well, this 2-minute article is going to give you a laser-sharp, effective way to figure out what AFL Fantasy score a player requires to “hit value”.

And you wouldn’t believe just how easy it is.

Before I move onto the trick, let’s define what value actually is…

Defining ‘value’

A score without a salary is meaningless.

A player scores 100 – so what?

This doesn’t really tell us anything about how the player fared – we need a salary to compare it to.

To illustrate this, consider Demon’s star Max Gawn, priced at $19,000.

If Max Gawn scores 100, is it even a ‘good’ score? It doesn’t seem great.

Now consider a base-priced rookie coming in at $5,000 who scores 100.

That’s a score that will win you a slate 9/10 and everyone knows it!

Well, what about a player at $15,000?

Hmmmm, now it gets tricky. I have no idea.

The problem we need to solve is:

How do we officially determine if a player’s score is good or bad based off their salary?

Here’s a cheeky little DFS strategy I use almost every time I look at a player…


Firstly, you simply grab the player’s SALARY and divide it by 130.

And then, you want to..

Oh, wait…

That’s it. That’s the entire trick.

Let’s use a quick example to see how effective this can be…

Here’s Jack, with a Steeley look in his eye.

Let’s say Jack Steele is priced at $16,000, but we have no idea if he’s “good enough” for that price tag.

Well, let’s let the maths make the decision for us.

16,000/130 = 123.1.

What does this tell us?

This tells us Jack Steele’s breakeven point here is 123.1.

Whenever you divide a player’s salary by 130, you get a good estimate of their breakeven point

Anything drastically below that, and he’s fared poorly.

Anything drastically above it, and he’s fared excellently.

Wrapping up

Surely it can’t be so simple and so effective?

Think again!

Personally, I use it for literally every player I’m assessing.

After a few hundred iterations, it becomes second nature to think in terms of value.

Remember – a score without an accommodating salary means nothing.

You must always be thinking in terms of value, not score.

The Study Session coming out next Wednesday (19th of August) will cover the topic of value in much more depth.

Stay tuned!

Leave a Comment

Scroll to Top