Jason ‘Broady4_’ Broadbridge
As a follow up to my earlier article examining the processes behind a strong MME player, this article will focus on my own process after having one of my biggest days in DFS.
On Wednesday last week I was lucky enough to take out both the Draftstars AFL $50,000 Lions vs Suns and the Draftkings AFL Showdown $6K Saw Tooth. The following piece will walk you through my thought process behind each decision I made towards winning upwards of $15k profit.
Before creating my lineups for each slate, I like to take a step back and analyse it from a macro point of view.
What is the field likely to do?
What is the field unlikely to do?
How can I take advantage of week-to-week variance?
This initial stage of analysis shapes my approach for the slate and is always completely unbiased.
On this particular night, my process led me to a few different strategies.
My first strategy was to load up on the Lions.
This seemed pretty obvious with the Lions heavy favourites over the Suns, but it wasn’t your typical ‘stack your team full of Collingwood or Geelong players and hope they chip the ball around’.
I wanted to target the Brisbane goalkickers, in the hope they pile on goals against a Suns side that is clearly getting worse the longer the season goes on.
My second strategy was to go well under the field on Keidean Coleman, as noted in my Game Plan for the slate.
I wanted to pivot off him after a brilliant debut at what was sure to be high-ownership, considering that he doesn’t exactly have a history of high scoring (70 avg in the NEAFL). A dud game from him would catapult me up the leaderboard and, perhaps even more importantly, it would differentiate my Brisbane stacks.
Take the cheap ruckmen whenever possible. I wanted to grab a fair few shares of Sam Day and Archie Smith not because I was bullish on their scoring potential, but because I wasn’t keen on McInerney. McInerney had a tough matchup and normally loses ruck time when Smith’s included in the Brisbane side. The Big O was coming off a hot run and was expected to be quite popular. I saw that as another profitable way of differentiating to the field.
Here’s how I dissected both slates (both on Draftstars and DraftKings)…
On Draftstars, 53 of my 100 lineups consisted of at least 6 Brisbane players, and my top three highest owned players all exceeded or met salary-based expectations, and were all owned considerably higher then the field (check the picture on the right). This laid the foundation for a very successful core.
The strategy of fading, or under-owning Coleman set the stage for my winning lineup. With half the field containing Coleman in a midfield-spot, not many (or any) lineups would’ve had the combination of Cameron, Hipwood, Neale, Lyons, Robinson, and Zorko – who all returned huge scores.
Plenty of my non-Coleman Brisbane teams contained Jack Payne, who returned the second best point per dollar score on the entire slate at only 13% ownership. Being available as a defender helped to create the aforementioned unique lineup construction that led to a 1st and 2nd place finish.
Mitch Robinson had come off a month of very poor scoring but he is always quite unpredictable and a price tag of $9,150 is very cheap for him. I expected Robinson to fly under the radar a fair bit so decided to make him a core piece of my GPP strategy in the hope he had an upswing.
Some other notable plays I made were fading Lester, who returned a great score but was very high owned. I forecasted that Rich being back in the lineup would affect his scoring and it enabled me to take Jack Payne instead.
Also went under the field on Ainsworth, Greenwood, Anderson, Bowes, who didn’t fit my strategy of capitalising on a big Brisbane win.
On Draftkings, 7 of my 17 teams had at least 6 Brisbane players, 5 of 17 (29%) teams had Charlie Cameron (compared to the field at 13%), and only 2 teams featured Coleman.
Macpherson was in 13 of 17 (76% compared to the field at 39%) as I took advantage of his role change and bargain price. He snuck into a full Brisbane stack and this was enough for me to differentiate from the field and comfortably end up in first place.
This slate is an example of a day where almost all of my plays went well. This doesn’t always happen, but the more thought you put into each slate and each important player in that slate, the more likely you will win in the long run.
I hope this helps some of you on your DFS journeys, looking forward to writing up some more in the future.