SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
$1,000 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 2 max)

 

ESSENDON vs FREMANTLE

Marvel, 1.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: Under the roof.
BOOKIES: Essendon $1.64 favourites, 176.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Phillips for Bryan in the ruck was the obvious and expected change for Essendon, with the unexpected being a hamstring issue for Stringer that allowed impressive rookie Perkins to get more involved at the CBA’s. The Bombers’ midfield group is set outside of those changes, with Devon Smith’s attendances probably just due to being a rotation down with the Stringer issue (and the fact that the forward Guelfi was his replacement as the medical sub). But perhaps the most relevant structure quirk we had in this game was a surprise change-up at the kick-ins, with Redman taking over from the out-of-sorts Ridley as the main man- with the latter looking like he had a more accountable defensive role than usual on top of that. His stocks drop sharply if this continues. The broad strokes were identical to the past few weeks for Essendon though, with Parish a full-time inside MID and flourishing, Devon Smith heavily forward, Langford a pure wingman and Snelling busy in a high half forward role being the more relevant ones worth highlighting. 

We knew that the Dockers were struggling for defenders and overflowing with inside midfielders, so Longmuir opted to kill two birds with one stone by moving Darcy Tucker back to defence – not Aish, as I predicted. An early injury to Frederick had a big effect on Fremantle’s planned rotations this week, with pure inside MID Blakely entering the game as the medical sub – that saw both Fyfe and Mundy play forward slightly more, with Brayshaw spending more time on the wing for optimal inside/outside balance. The Dockers are very much a systems-based side so all other roles were as expected, with Wilson benefiting massively from Ryan’s absence with 8 freebies from the kick-ins. 

TEAMSHEETS

Essendon: IN: Zaharakis, OUT: Stringer, Cox
Notable outs: Shiel, Caldwell, Draper, Hurley. 

Fremantle: IN: Cerra, Switkowski, OUT: Blakely, Frederick, Conca
Notable outs: Hamling, Pearce, Ryan*, Chapman, Young, Hughes. 

TRENDS

Essendon has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN DEF’s this year.

Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY DEF’s in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the most points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Fremantle has conceded the 5th-most points to MID’s this year.
Fremantle has conceded the 6th-most points to RUC’s in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

MELBOURNE vs CARLTON

MCG, 3.20pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$12,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 13 degrees and mostly cloudy, chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Melbourne $1.30 favourites, 162.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

With Viney still missing, the dominoes fell as planned for the Demons at selection this week. Baker out, which moved Brayshaw back to a wing and Harmes back into that midfield role that he claimed to start the season. We also got our first look at Melbourne’s top-heavy forward structure with Petty replacing Tomlinson in defence rather than another throwback for Tom McDonald, whose 4 goals in a BOG performance suggests that an unbeaten Melbourne are probably pretty happy with how they’re structuring up. The Gawn/Jackson ruck split is officially a concern, with the 65/35 split hurting Gawn’s ceiling – a three-week average of 96 AF is just not acceptable at his price-tags. A two-week broken finger for Jackson looks huge for Gawn in the short-term. Winning, healthy teams don’t fix what ain’t broke, so consistent roles elsewhere – although keep an eye on Salem and May for who reigns victorious in the weekly battle for kick-ins. 

An early injury to Zac Williams forced him forward much more than Carlton would’ve planned for, but his woes were Cuningham’s wins with another big week at the CBA’s (61% share). Could that Williams niggle be what convinced Teague to abandon Ed Curnow’s regular Bont tag? Or is Cripps’ form too poor to take a midfielder who’s actually racking up the pill out of an offensive-minded role? He didn’t dump the idea of a tag completely though, with Fogarty following Caleb Daniel around to great effect, particularly early. McKay looked unstoppable at times but 4 snags for just 68 AF isn’t the kind of ratio we love in DFS. Carlton bent strongly to the Bulldogs’ will in a DvP sense in this game, with the midfielders understandably finding it tough while the defenders excelled – Docherty (9 marks for 123 AF) and Weitering (13 marks, 117 AF) sparked all of their counter-attacks in Round 8. 

TEAMSHEETS

Melbourne: IN: Weideman, OUT: Melksham, Jackson
Notable outs: Viney, Tomlinson.

Carlton: IN: Murphy, Newman, Setterfield, OUT: Newnes, Silvagni, Gibbons, Petrevski-Seton
Notable outs: Martin, Fisher, Williams*, Dow, Silvagni. McGovern. 

TRENDS

Melbourne has conceded the 5th-fewest points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the fewest raw points to RUC’s this year.

Carlton has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Carlton has conceded the 5th-fewest points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Carlton has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.

HISTORY

 

 

WEST COAST vs ADELAIDE

Optus Stadium, 4.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 22 degrees and cloudy, no chance of rain.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.10 favourites, 172.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

West Coast went away from their insulated lines this week – more due to necessity through Duggan’s injury than by choice – opting instead to rotate small forwards in Ah Chee and Jamaine Jones through the CBA’s as part-timers. The same goes for Oscar Allen, who was forced to remain in defence while wunderkind Bailey Williams chopped out Naitanui in Vardy’s usual role – a calf injury to Josh Kennedy likely ends that run however. Defenders aren’t exactly in the healthiest state for the Eagles at the moment, and that kept Nelson in the backline rather than being used as a cooler (as he has at times this season). Not a lot else changed – Witherden is still taking the kick-ins, Brander is still crunching value on a wing and Gaff is still playing huge minutes (95% TOG) in an attempt to carry this wounded club through a rough patch health-wise. 

Adding a big figure like Sloane to your midfield in no simple task, and the Crows basically had to start from scratch to git him in – Keays and Laird were full-timers, Sloane eased into it with a hybrid role, Sam Berry had a tagging assignment on Boak and that left Schoenberg and Fogarty to fight over the scraps. I daresay that Sloane will start to crank up those CBA’s in the coming weeks, so I’m not bullish about anyone getting just midfield cameos at this point. Early injuries to forwards in McHenry and Murphy put the Crows in an awkward position given they had defender McPherson as their medical sub – he came on and did his best in a half forward role. Meanwhile, it’s time to move on from Taylor Walker as a premium DFS option following his 20 AF – throw him back into the upside-only forward bracket. 

TEAMSHEETS

West Coast: IN: McGovern, Barrass, OUT: Edwards, Foley, Langdon 
Notable outs: Hurn, Duggan, Yeo, Shuey, Ryan, Kennedy. 

Adelaide: IN: Frampton, Jones, O’Connor, McAdam, OUT: McPherson, Himmelberg, Murphy, McHenry, Walker
Notable outs: Crouch, Talia, Lynch. 

TRENDS

West Coast has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to KEY FWD’s this year.
West Coast has conceded the 4th-fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to RUC’s this year.

Adelaide has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY FWD’s in L5.

HISTORY

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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