RICHMOND vs GEELONG

MCG, 7.50pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$3,000 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 7 max)
WEATHER: 16 degrees and mostly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Richmond $1.58 favourites, 154.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The loss of Dusty through concussion allowed Collier-Dawkins to finally make his debut and, unlike Collingwood with their young midfielders, Hardwick actually unleashed the young bull on the inside with a team-high 68% CBA presence. A late hamstring injury to Trent Cotchin (55% CBA share) means that Dusty should be a straight-swap for his skipper this week, leaving a clear path for RCD to play at least another game or two as an inside enforcer. Bolton added another 101 AF to his recent scoring flurry, but just be aware that he spent a lot of time forward and needed 3 snags to reach that total. Ross (48 AF) and Graham (68 AF) had a big opportunity with the injuries ahead of them but both failed to grasp it, although they weren’t exactly gifted favourable roles with just 11 CBA’s between them. Pickett was once again used as a makeshift ruckman at times but sat mostly on a wing, with McIntosh on the opposite side and Ross covering the overlap; leaving Graham to fend for himself across half forward. Baker switched forward in the Lambert role as expected and performed admirably, and I’d expect that to continue for as long as the veteran remains out. I’ve noticed a clear role difference between Short and Houli lately, with Short skulking around closer to goals as looking for switches and fast exits out of the backline, whereas Houli has been floating more across half back and racking up as an outlet option instead. 

Injuries to both Dangerfield and O’Connor at the same time, who’ve played interchangeably through the midfield this year, forced Geelong into a different look at the CBA’s. While they could’ve pivoted to a hybrid role for Duncan (7% CBA share), they opted not to mess with his blistering form on a wing and instead gave bigger workloads to Parfitt (+22% CBA presence) and the incoming Narkle (47%). The other significant change was Chris Scott finally spitting the dummy with whipping boy Rhys Stanley, dumping him as a ruckman in the final quarter and instead going back to the well on Mark Blicavs as a more dynamic option. The Cats have a lot of puzzle pieces that fit into multiple spots, so to clarify those – Henry (defence), Tuohy (half back), Atkins (half back) and Clark (utility) were the way the chips fell this week. All other roles as expected, with a big watch this week on Blicavs as potentially the ruckman (and what that means for Geelong’s ever-changing backline). 

TEAMSHEETS

Richmond: Martin, Vlastuin IN – Cotchin, Grimes OUT
Notable outs: Cotchin, Prestia, Soldo, Lambert, Grimes.

  • A couple of straight swaps for the Tigers, which means that we get another week of full-time inside midfielder Collier-Dawkins.
  • News not so good for Ross/Graham, who would dearly love those CBA’s.
  • Seems like the kind of night where Martin plays as a full-time midfielder; no Prestia, no Cotchin, fresh after a week off and strolls into a big-time game with the Grand Final replay – this is Dusty’s DFS sweet spot.
  • Expect to see Pickett chopping out in the ruck again, especially with Geelong not having anyone you’d fear in the hitouts department.

Geelong: Simpson, Higgins, Z Guthrie IN – Miers, Clark, Narkle OUT
Notable outs: Dangerfield, O’Connor, Clark, Narkle.

  • I have Simpson and Higgins both down for hybrid roles as a conservative example, but realistically Simpson probably plays further up the ground more often – particularly with the small forward Miers out and Higgins potentially needed close to the sticks for team balance.
  • Things are murkier than ever in the ruck for Geelong – not only did Blicavs slide back into the ruck equation at the expense of Stanley late last week, but Henry has been used as a chop out and Mitch Cleary’s tweet saying that Ratugolea is playing on Friday night suggests a late swap is brewing.
  • I have Zach Guthrie playing forward with Geelong’s current named side, as he’s done a few times this year, but he would be the first one moved back in any potential late withdrawal restructure.

TRENDS

Richmond concedes the 2nd-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Richmond concedes the 2nd-fewest points to KEY FWD’s this year.

Geelong concedes the fewest points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Geelong concedes the 4th-fewest points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Geelong concedes the 2nd-fewest points to MID’s this year.

HISTORY

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Joel Selwood – M – $12,870 DS

Much in the same way that I talked up Dustin Martin ($12,860 MID/FWD) above, Selwood is a renowned big-game player looming large ahead of a Grand Final replay without Dangerfield alongside him in the midfield. In fact, a glance at Morts’ With/Without tool shows that Selwood has scored 73 and 69 with Danger in the side this year, with his output cranking up to 102 AF per game without him – including a lowest score of 87 from those games. Huge.

Geelong loves to in-game rest their veteran skipper when they’re up and about, but Richmond isn’t that kind of opponent and this isn’t the kind of stage that Selwood is happy being part of the supporting cast on. Smash him in all game scripts.

BEST VALUE: Riley Collier-Dawkins – M – $6,350 DS 

I could easily talk about the criminally underpriced pair in Nick Vlastuin ($7,980 DEF) and Jeremy Cameron ($7,900 FWD) here, but they’re so obvious (and somewhat outcome dependent). So let’s look at someone more risky instead – the highly AFL Fantasy-relevant Riley Collier-Dawkins.

A team-high 68% CBA presence (for midfielders) for last week’s debutant is extremely hard to ignore, and you could make an argument that last week’s 63 AF was on the skinny side when compared to the eye test. Geelong are about as tough as it comes for midfielders in terms in DvP, but most of that is through limiting the easy pill, ranking dead last for uncontested possessions conceded this year. 

That’s why RCD feels safe to roll out in all game scripts with this role, because he’s hardly an outside threat – 11 of his 16 possessions late week were contested. On the flip side, Geelong gives up the 6th-most tackles this year and Collier-Dawkins will have plenty of opportunities to lay a few of his own on Friday night.  

BEST RUCK: Toby Nankervis – R – $13,080 DS

Barring an (annoyingly) likely late change in the ruck, Nankervis wins the “Cash” ruck battle in a landslide. 95, 91, 119 and 101 in his last month of action, on top of a match-up against an out-of-favour Stanley and his fleet of chop-out rucks, virtually ensures another score in that neighbourhood. 

In GPP’s though, it’s much tighter than you’d think. The extra $2.4k you get by rolling with Stanley is always handy, but it’s the lower score required to reach the value point that thrusts the whipping boy into play. Look at it this way: Stanley has scored 81+ in 3 of 7 games this year. Value-wise, that’s comparable to Nank hitting 99, which is a mark he’s reached in just 2 of his 7 games. It’s close.

BEST STAT: Tom Stewart – D – $14,500 DS 

The only favourable DvP trend in this game has paid dividends in the past, with Stewart scoring 109, 114 and 105 in his last three outings against the Tigers. These backline Generals continue to rack it up against Richmond across the league – last week it was Daniel (112), the week before it was Salem (141), then you have Houston (110), Lloyd (119), and Hardwick (139) over this young season already.

There’s no doubt Stewart will be good here, so it’s just up to you to decide how good – $14,500 is a big spend up for a player that hasn’t shown a “ceiling”, with just 3 scores over 115 AF in his career so far.  

BEST RETHINK: Mark Blicavs – M/D – $9,190 DS

If there is a late change in the rucks, and specifically if Stanley is dropped and Ratugolea comes in, Blicavs rockets into DFS contention.

Blitz and Esava formed a ruck duo without Stanley in 4 games in 2020; Rounds 8, 9, 17 and 18. In those games, they ran a 67/33 ruck split in Blicavs’ favour, and from those games, Blicavs scored 104, 86 and 118 before copping a rib injury in the last game. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a bigger swing based on a single selection, so make sure you’re paying attention to the announcements as the countdown clock ticks past 60 minutes.

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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