SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings

 

NORTH MELBOURNE vs MELBOURNE

Blundstone Arena, 1.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and mostly cloudy, small chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Melbourne $1.03 favourites, 161.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Kayne Turner’s CBA’s dropped with a Andrew Brayshaw tag this week, given that the youngster spends plenty of time on the outside as part of Fremantle’s midfield rotations. Tarryn Thomas (+35% CBA share) was the surprise beneficiary ahead of Davies-Uniacke, who was eased back into senior footy with just 32% CBA presence – that was north of 50% earlier in the season and I’d expect that to stabilise over the next few weeks. Tom Powell continues to get the job done regardless of where North starts him, racking up 102 AF from just 5 CBA’s with plenty of time spent across half forward. Stephenson was promoted up to a wing role as expected, and his 88 AF coming from just 18 touches shows how high his ceiling is in that role (and we all remember Round 1’s effort). North’s makeshift defence was peppered all day long, with Bonar (94 AF), Menadue (81) and Bosenvulagi (77) all reaching value behind Ziebell’s 170-point pisstake. Once again, the skipper had his plate full as the backline general with other wiser heads in Tarrant, McDonald and Hall all missing through injury. Lachie Young snuck up to a wing again but was far less influential in fantasy this week, managing just 53 AF and has to be on shaky ground. Phillips produced another stinker of 37 AF and probably needs a long stint in the VFL if the Roos aren’t going to gift him a much-needed midfield role.

When you’re 5-0 and coming up against the reigning Premiers, you tend to keep things simple, and Melbourne did just that by rolling out their battle-tested blueprint. Yes, Viney (-30% CBA share) spent a few extra minutes on a wing and Jordon’s TOG was critically low at 56%, but the broad strokes remained the same in the midfield. May (90 AF) returned ahead of schedule and didn’t miss a beat, wrestling back his kick-in role from Christian Salem – not that it affected the incumbent’s output, with the silky user running riot against Richmond’s non-exist forward press with 141 AF. Jackson (100 AF) played his best game for the year, upswinging on the back of the 35/65 ruck split he’s been running with Gawn for the past month. Consistent roles across the board as you’d imagine, with a watch on Tom McDonald – he was a genuine key forward in this one with 3 snags and 80 AF, but might have to move up the ground to squeeze a fit Ben Brown into the side. 

TEAMSHEETS

North: Lazzaro, Hall IN – Davies-Uniacke, Menadue OUT
Notable outs: McDonald, Anderson, Dumont, Polec, LDU, Tarrant, Corr. 

Melbourne: B Brown IN – Jones OUT
Notable outs: Harmes, Jones, Weideman. 

TRENDS

North has conceded the 3rd-most points to MID’s this year.
North has conceded the 3rd-most points to RUC’s this year.

Melbourne has conceded the fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the fewest raw points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY


 

 

ESSENDON vs CARLTON

MCG, 3.20pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 22 degrees and partly cloudy, small chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Carlton $1.73 favourites, 175.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Stringer was back to his old tricks, playing predominantly as a forward option but starting at every centre bounce he was on the field for. Hollow CBA’s, but they really hurt Archie Perkins’ output – he dropped from 56% CBA presence to 0% for his 59 AF, and while he still played up the ground, that’s almost 20 opportunities to lay a tackle or get a first possession that he was missing out on. Phillips returning to the side weirdly had a positive effect on Wright’s output, with the former Sun scoring better as a key forward (114 AF from 10 marks and 2 snags) than he did with full ruck time. With Parish/Merrett/McGrath dominating the inside core and Langford/Cox on the wings, Devon Smith was reduced to a pure half forward role once again and looked to have an elbow issue early on. Consistent roles elsewhere, with Heppell (142 AF), Laverde (106 AF) and Hind (94 AF after a quiet first half) all cashing in on Collingwood’s leaky forward press. 

So much for the midfield role of Zac Williams at Carlton – when a career wingman and lifelong battler in Cuningham is sneaking in ahead of you at the CBA’s, you know things are looking grim. His CBA’s mostly came at the expense of Sam Walsh, who has proven already over his short career that he can get the job done on the wing if required and his 123 AF against the Lions certainly qualifies. Ed Curnow didn’t have a dedicated tag this week, and that showed in his score of 131 AF as a full-time inside midfielder. Murphy (84 AF) had his best game of the year in his half forward role, but still sits behind Cottrell/Newnes/resting midfielders, which dashes any hopes of joining the wing rotation while they remain. Stocker was quiet in his season debut (40 AF) after dominating in the VFL the week prior, which is to be expected when you sit below Docherty, Saad and SPS on the defensive distributor totem pole at Carlton. 

TEAMSHEETS

Essendon: Bryan, Ridley, Stewart IN – Phillips, Zerk-Thatcher, Francis OUT
Notable outs: Shiel, Caldwell, Draper, Hurley, Stewart, Francis. 

Carlton: Dow, Owies, Parks IN – Murphy, Williams, Petrevski-Seton OUT
Notable outs: Murphy, Williams, SPS, De Koning, Martin, Fisher, C Curnow, Marchbank, Newman. 

TRENDS

Essendon has conceded the 4th-fewest points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Essendon has conceded the 4th-fewest points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Essendon has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Essendon has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN FWD’s this year.

Carlton has conceded the 4th-fewest points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY


 

 

WEST COAST vs FREMANTLE

Optus Stadium, 4.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$20,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 35 max)
WEATHER: 22 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.68 favourites, 160.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

I say this every week, but West Coast is a systems-based team and hence they rarely mix up their structures, even with key personnel missing. Arguably their biggest change was in the ruck, where Kennedy’s absence saw Oscar Allen promoted to the second banana up forward, which then allowed Vardy to play a full game as a traditional chop out ruckman in attack. Duggan remained in defence this week as Nelson tried a Selwood tag, but that plan was nixed once McGovern (groin) went down. With Barrass (shoulder) in doubt this weekend, it seems likely that Duggan remains in defence in the short term. Kelly copped an O’Connor tag but was far from the Eagles’ worst. O’Neill and Brander remain in the wing rotation behind Gaff, but X has been down for a few weeks now and might be in danger of being replaced. Witherden maintained his kick-duties and that helped him to top the fantasy scoring of the West Coast defenders, but just beware of a dilution (or even a complete removal) once Hurn returns from his calf issue. 

With Cerra injured early on into Fremantle’s Round 5 clash, we already had a clear example of what to expect with Fremantle’s midfield rotations. Fyfe (95% CBA share) as a full-time midfielder alongside Serong, Brayshaw and Mundy was the solution again, and Blakely only snuck his 2 CBA’s after coming into the game as the medical sub. Lobb took a few extra centre bounces this week, but overall ruck contests were roughly in the same ballpark and it’s not like Darcy suffered scoring-wise with another ton on the trot. Crowden played more as a half forward rolling up to a wing than a midfielder per se, while Treacy probably punched his ticket back to the WAFL with another uninspiring performance. Aish moved back into defence to cover for the injured Cox in the last quarter, but he’s needed on the wing long-term. Consistent roles elsewhere. 

TEAMSHEETS

West Coast: Kennedy, Petruccelle, H Edwards IN – Barrass, O’Neill, McGovern OUT
Notable outs: Shuey, Yeo, Hurn, Ryan, Kennedy, McGovern, Barrass. 

Fremantle: Tucker, Watson IN – Ryan, Treacy OUT
Notable outs: Pearce, Hamling, Cox, Ryan, Cerra, Young. 

TRENDS

West Coast has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to RUC’s this year.

Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN FWD’s this year.

HISTORY


 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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