SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$4,000 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 9 max)


 

COLLINGWOOD vs GOLD COAST

MCG, 1.45pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 23 degrees and cloudy, no chance of rain.
BOOKIES: Collingwood $1.50 favourites, 163.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

What a disaster this team is. For a team with serious midfield issues (Adams, De Goey, Greenwood, Elliott missing on top of last year’s devastating off-season losses), to play young midfielders in Macrae (just 12% CBA presence) and Rantall (0%) as forwards, and to swing Crisp (41% CBA presence from Rounds 1-5) into defence should be punishable by public humiliation. But to throw career-forward Josh Thomas (55% CBA share) in ahead of them?! That’s a fireable offence. On the flipside, Daicos (+25%) and Sidebottom (130 AF with +55%) are trending in the right direction with full-time midfield roles. Hoskin-Elliott snuck up onto a wing as expected, so it was no surprise to see his output reflect that with 9 marks amongst his 97 AF. Will Kelly started back to allow Moore to pretend he’s a forward, but that was shut down again mid-game with the pair switching places in the second half. Noble (half back), Murphy (half back), and Cal Brown (half forward) were the other roles of note.

The Suns are playing like a poor man’s Harlem Globetrotters, racking up more fantasy numbers than any other team this year, but lacking the win-loss record to reflect it. Miller (142 AF), Anderson (120) and Swallow (114) all built their big totals on the back of heavy inside roles, but Nick Holman rolled back his sleeves and laid 13 tackles to hit his 135-point monster in a high half forward role. The roles of Ellis and Lukosius have stabilised themselves back on the wing after the pair dabbled with stretches in defence in recent weeks. I feel bad for poor Caleb Graham, taking the majority of Gold Coast’s ruck contests extremely undersized, then only managing a team-low 29 AF for his troubles. Bowes lost sole control of the kick-in role, with Powell stepping up as the deep small defender while Bowes patrolled the flanks further up. Ainsworth returned a nice 105-point total, but that was purely an upswing with 3 snags from a permanent forward role; similarly with Ben King’s 5 goals and 95 AF.

TEAMSHEETS

Collingwood: Poulter, Mayne, De Goey, Keane IN – Madgen, Rantall, Ruscoe, Kelly OUT
Notable outs: Adams, Elliott, Howe, Cox, Kelly. 

Gold Coast: Unchanged
Notable outs: Rowell, Witts, Day, Z Smith. 

TRENDS

Collingwood has conceded the most points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the most points to MID’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the most points to ELITE MID’s this year.

Gold Coast has conceded the 5th-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Gold Coast has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s this year.
Gold Coast has conceded the 2nd-most points to ELITE MID’s this year.
Gold Coast has conceded easy points to RUC’s since Witts went down.

HISTORY


 

ADELAIDE vs GWS

Adelaide Oval, 2.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 25 degrees and mostly cloudy, no chance of rain.
BOOKIES: Adelaide $1.86 favourites, 170.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Hately for Berry was the prevailing Teamsheets change for the Crows, and that translated perfectly to the table above. However, Fogarty (hybrid MID/FWD) and Seedman (wing) taking Schoenberg’s CBA’s wasn’t a forced change and probably reflects where the second-year midfielder is at currently. Consistent roles across the ground for the Crows, although Sholl did push back into defence once Hamill went down with an ankle in the 3rd quarter, with medical sub Tom Lynch covering his vacated wing time. Thilthorpe kicked 5 on debut and won a lot of fans, but his 94-point score has destroyed his DFS relevance through a big price-hike this week. 

Outside of the insulated Flynn for Mumford swap, this is probably the most settled GWS’s midfield rotations have been all year. Daniels continues to wriggle his way into significant minutes up the ground, although it didn’t pay off this week with just the 46 AF. We thought that Perryman coming back would be like throwing a fox into Lachie Ash’s henhouse, and while Harry did reabsorb some of his kick-in duties, Ash was the free man and racked up 15 marks and 146 AF alongside him. Could Nick Haynes’ early hamstring issue have had an affect on his planned role, sending Perryman into a more lockdown mindset? Interestingly, O’Halloran (60 AF) was the man sent back to cover the rotations, with Finlayson and Himmelberg retained up forward. Stone and the medical sub Bruhn were cardboard cutouts up forward essentially, with stand-in skipper Toby Greene carrying the small forwards (and the team as a whole) once again with 4 snags, and none of them came easy. Kelly remains in a high half forward role and his 78 AF is about on par for expectations with him these days. 

TEAMSHEETS

Adelaide: Mackay, Murray, Berry IN – Hamill, Brown, Fogarty OUT
Notable outs: Sloane, Crouch, Talia, Milera. 

GWS: Hogan, Whitfield, Reid, Mumford IN – Riccardi, Haynes, Stone, Flynn OUT
Notable outs: Coniglio, Haynes, Davis, de Boer, Preuss, Flynn. 

TRENDS

Adelaide has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Adelaide has conceded the 4th-fewest points to MID’s this year.

GWS has conceded the 5th-fewest points to MID’s this year.

HISTORY


 

 

ST KILDA vs HAWTHORN

Marvel, 4.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: Under the roof.
BOOKIES: St Kilda $1.63 favourites, 168.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Seb Ross is a DFS gem whenever he lands the right role, and a full-time midfield gig ahead of Zak Jones (39% share) was the magic password that unlocked his huge 141-point belter. Bytel’s omission was the key there, so we’ll track that closely moving forward. Marshall reminded us why he’s a fantasy darling with 124 AF as a solo ruck, but the DFS goodness might be short-lived with Ryder on the comeback trail. Sinclair started quietly in defence, but was much more lively once he was moved up into the midfield in the second half – Brad Hill’s foot injury sparked that restructure and Battle spent some time down back to help out with rotations despite starting as a forward this week. Billings remains across half forward in a sign that he’s still playing sore, so keep an eye out for a score boost should he regain match fitness in the coming weeks. 

Nothing crazy from the Hawks this week, although Clarko was somewhat handcuffed by his wildcard in Burgoyne suffering an ankle injury in the first half. Cousins was jammed into an already-packed midfield rotation with long stints across half forward – ultimately, his presence hurts the DFS relevance of both he and Shiels, who surrendered some of his limited inside time. No tag for Worpel this week with Adelaide lacking an inside game-breaker, while O’Brien/Lewis covered the ruck overflow – rather than Hartigan – as expected. Phillips was the ‘pure’ wingman this week, with Shiels and Morrison supplementing their wing time with stints up forward. The Hawks three-tall forward line paid off this week with 8 snags between them, so I expect to see Clarko try and stretch St Kilda’s defence in a similar fashion in Round 7.

TEAMSHEETS

St Kilda: Webster, Ryder, Byrnes, Bytel IN – Long, Carlisle, McKenzie, Lonie OUT
Notable outs: Gresham, Hannebery, Hill. 

Hawthorn: Jeka, Gunston, Maginness IN – Wingard, O’Meara, Burgoyne OUT
Notable outs: Wingard, O’Meara, Sicily, Day, Ceglar, Burgoyne. 

TRENDS

St Kilda has conceded the most points to KEY DEF’s in L5.
St Kilda has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
St Kilda has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
St Kilda has conceded the most points to GEN FWD’s this year.
St Kilda has conceded the 5th-most points to MID’s this year.
St Kilda has conceded the 3rd-most points to RUC’s this year.

Hawthorn has conceded the 3rd-most points to ELITE MID’s this year.

HISTORY


 

 

BRISBANE vs PORT ADELAIDE

Gabba, 7.25pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and showers, thunderstorms earlier in the day.
BOOKIES: Port $1.75 favourites, 152.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

A settled Brisbane midfield won’t be so settled for long, with Neale’s ankle surgery about to result in a big fantasy boost for some. Could it be Zorko, who already pushed himself clear of the Berry/Bailey/Robertson logjam to attend a season-high 68% of centre bounces for his 111 AF? Does McCluggage (29% CBA share) come in off a wing, or does Bailey and/or Robertson finally carve out solid inside roles for themselves? Outside of the midfield, Darcy Gardiner’s early injury provided a structural shake-up, with Ah Chee – rather than the like-for-like McStay – switching back into defence as coverage. Rich benefited greatly from the kick-in role this week, with 24 of his 95 points gifted from Carlton misses. Consistent roles elsewhere. 

Houston and Drew were either side of the medical sub last week, so both experienced significant KPI boost with full games in Round 6. As expected, Amon slid back over to a full-time wing gig to allow them back in, although Houston (wing), Drew (half forward) and Rozee (deep forward) had to make small role sacrifices too. A huge first half as the sweeper formed the backbone of Amon’s massive 136-point total, recording 15 marks as he connected up with the long list of Port defenders to fill the fantasy leaderboard on Sunday evening. Port ran a rare 8-man backline rotation this week, which allowed Woodcock to slide up onto a wing alongside Amon and the resting midfielders. Frederick was dynamic in defence but just take care with how you project him moving forward – his score was boosted by the Port pile-on in defence.  

TEAMSHEETS

Brisbane: Madden, Mathieson IN – Gardiner, Neale OUT
Notable outs: Neale, J Berry, Andrews, Gardiner, Payne. 

Port Adelaide: Powell-Pepper IN – Boak OUT
Notable outs: Boak, Butters, Duursma, Bonner, Ladhams. 

TRENDS

Brisbane has conceded the most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Brisbane has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Brisbane has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s this year.

Port has conceded the fewest points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Port has conceded the 4th-fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.

HISTORY


 

 

SYDNEY vs GEELONG

SCG, 7.25pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and humid, scattered thunderstorms.
BOOKIES: Geelong $1.47 favourites, 158.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Sinclair stepped into the Hickey-shaped hole left in Sydney’s side, and didn’t Gold Coast roll out the red carpet by failing to select a ruckman again and allowing him to cruise to 110 AF. Rowbottom’s midfield time came at the expense of Florent, as it so often has over the past couple of years, with the pair on opposite wings while McInerney initially flipped back to defence. Hewett (half back) suffered concussion and Blakey (wing) copped a big thigh corkie in the first quarter, which sparked a series of role changes. Campbell was able to cover Hewett in the backline, but Blakey parked himself in the goalsquare and that opened up a void in the wing rotation – McInerney to a wing, Mills to half back and Warner (tagging Miller) soaking up the extra CBA’s were how the structural dominos fell. Brand’s fourth-quarter calf issue didn’t help proceedings either, as he was sent forward to nurse himself amongst Sydney’s walking wounded. 

O’Connor returned to Geelong’s midfield with a timely tagging role on ex-Cat Tim Kelly, but he’ll be straight back out following a late hamstring issue. That’s great news for Parfitt (-20% CBA share), who felt the squeeze with an untagged Selwood stepping back into full-time inside work, while Duncan only had 7% CBA presence himself… but does he even want it? 4 goals and 13 marks (from just 26 touches) for his 146 AF suggests probably not. Atkins continues to blossom with 9 marks and 105 AF in a half-back role, while Isaac Smith capitalised on West Coast’s DEF leakiness with some cheap link-ups off a wing. Henry (back-up ruckman), Blicavs and Tuohy all played in Geelong’s 8-man defence, and the open forward line suited the Hawkins/Cameron combo just fine. Jordan Clark came on as the medical sub in the last quarter when the game was already over, so it was hard to nail down his exact role.

TEAMSHEETS

Sydney: Hickey, O’Riordan, McCartin, Stephens IN – Reid, Hewett, Brand, Blakey OUT
Notable outs: Reid, Naismith, Rampe, Franklin, Hewett. 

Geelong: Narkle, Clark IN – O’Connor, Kolodjashnij OUT
Notable outs: Dangerfield, Higgins, O’Connor. 

TRENDS

Sydney has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Sydney has conceded the fewest points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Sydney has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to MID’s this year.
Sydney has conceded the fewest points to ELITE MID’s this year.
Sydney has conceded the fewest points to RUC’s this year.

Geelong has conceded the fewest points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to MID’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to ELITE MID’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY


 

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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