SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings

 

HAWTHORN vs ADELAIDE

UTAS Stadium, 12.30pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 16 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Hawthorn $1.64 favourites, 167.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

A newly solo McEvoy gave Hawthorn’s CBA’s it’s spice this week, with Hartigan given the back-up ruck role out of nowhere with a 20% share of the overall ruck contests. The Hawks were pretty settled outside of the ruck though, with Worpel given another assignment in quelling Petracca – sadly, it didn’t come with the same increase in scoring offensively for the out-of-form/out-of-favour midfielder. Morrison sat on the defensive wing again with Burgoyne slotting back into defence, and was again busier than his contemporaries in Howe and Phillips on the outside. Jiath had a really poor week as DFS chalk but nothing changed structurally, while Nash isn’t worth covering given how quickly he should be out of the side. Consistent roles elsewhere, and it’s consistently producing mediocrity – I don’t expect Clarko to sit on his hands for long. 

Berry was the man tasked with covering for Sloane/Crouch-sized midfield holes this week, with Seedsman sliding back over to a more familiar wing role. Both he and his opposite wingman in Sholl hit 103 AF, so at least the Crows don’t have to worry about any weaknesses on the outside. Key forward-turned-midfield hybrid Fogarty had another crack at the CBA’s, but failed to have a fantasy influence for the second week running. Taylor Walker was humming towards another slate-breaking score before a calf injury stopped him in his tracks just before half-time, which left him playing on one leg thereafter – should we project him as back to his former self in the near future? No other surprises structurally for the Crows.

TEAMSHEETS

Hawthorn: Cousins, Lewis IN – Howe, Nash OUT
Notable outs: Gunston, Ceglar, Sicily, Day. 

  • Lewis to replace the myth Nash up forward. This leaves Hawthorn with a three key talls up forward, which Clarko said in the pre-season that he was open to trying. O’Brien and Lewis took the back-up ruck duties last year and should do so again here – no more weird ruck Hartigan shenanigans.
  • Cousins replaces Howe in the midfield rotation, but might have to kick off his season with wing time… unless Shiels slides over to the outside instead – Cousins (48%) actually attended more centre bounces than Shiels (45%) in the games they played together last year.
  • Worpel has been tagging lately, and Laird looks like the only inside midfielder you’d worry about from Adelaide currently.
  • That should be it structurally, although just be aware that Clarko can wrench Burgoyne out of defense with a weird role at any time, in which case Morrison (wing) would slide back.

Adelaide: Himmelberg, Hately, Thilthorpe IN – Frampton, Berry, Lynch OUT
Notable outs: Sloane, Crouch, Talia, Milera. 

  • Himmelberg for Frampton, forward and back-up ruckman L4L.
  • Thilthorpe for Lynch, third tall forward L4L, or close enough. Highly athletic, Adelaide will have no problem unleashing him up the field and he could even challenge a few ruck contests at 201cm and 102kg. Walker was sore last week with that calf issue, and might prefer to stay closer to home with Riley goes on adventures.
  • Hately for Berry, inside midfielder L4L. Berry had a significant 46% CBA presence last week, and I can’t see Schoenberg or Fogarty being preferred to their prized off-season recruit. Besides, Hately has plenty of experience on a wing at GWS anyway. The MID/DEF status in Draftstars is weird, but his price of $11,630 means he needs to be considered with the guaranateed midfield role down at Pig Park.

TRENDS

Hawthorn has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Hawthorn has conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s this year.

Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY DEF’s this year.

HISTORY

Scrimshaw – 108
Mitchell – 105, DNP, 120
O’Meara – DNP, 106, 114
McEvoy44, 101, 76 (key defender)

O’Brien – 128, DNP, DNP
Laird – 89, 103, DNP
Keays – 88
Walker69, 54, 41 (before he turned into Wayne Carey)

 

COLLINGWOOD vs ESSENDON

MCG, 3.20pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$30,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 50 max)
WEATHER: 16 degrees and mostly cloudy, chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Collingwood $1.75 favourites, 167.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

An early injury to De Goey again warped Collingwood’s CBA’s, with his broken face ruining what looked like a planned full-time midfield role with Darcy Moore starting forward. Sier was his replacement so at least the Pies didn’t need to do anything crazy structurally. Pendlebury was leaned on massively in the midfield as expected, but the Pies played quite wide from there with 7 other midfielders hitting 6+ CBA’s. Macrae truthers would’ve been happy with his 32-point last term and the 33% CBA share, but Sidebottom’s 33% and Daicos’ 23% wasn’t enough to return DFS value. Greenwood tagged Kelly and needed his 47% CBA share to do so effectively, with Crisp the one who had to flip to the outside to accommodate him – not that his buyers would’ve cared following his team-high score of 124. Grundy’s rucking numbers were a season-low – which we flagged, given how Collingwood like to attack Naitanui with Cameron – but he pushed forward for 2 goals to make up for it amongst his 120 AF total. Maynard (75 AF) hasn’t put it together in fantasy yet, but taking 86% of the kick-ins means we’ll need to pay attention to him moving forward; especially with Howe (hamstring) out and Moore potentially playing forward again. This club is a mess at the minute, through both injury and form, so don’t be surprised to see a completely refreshed structure on ANZAC Day. 

The Bombers opted to play a straighter bat in the midfield this week, with Stringer’s CBA’s this week much more accurately reflecting his heavily-slanted forward role. McGrath already had the midfield role but received the ghost CBA’s this time around too, but the big midfield mover was Archie Perkins with a monstrous +56% boost at the centre bounces – it was no surprise to see him smash DFS value with 82 AF in that new-and-improved role. Snelling has now bumped Devon Smith out of the wing rotation, with the former Giant spending all his time across half forward in a telling sign of his current form. Ridley’s early concussion brought in Guelfi as a replacement in defence, although Heppell soaked up the kick-in role with 45% of the cheapies on offer. Worth keeping in mind with the concussion protocol ruling out the Ridler on ANZAC Day. Consistent roles elsewhere, although maybe not for long with Wright looking like he could use a rest in the ruck. 

TEAMSHEETS

Collingwood: Rantall, Murphy, Ruscoe, Kelly, Hoskin-Elliott IN – De Goey, Greenwood, Mayne, Howe, Keane OUT
Notable outs: De Goey, Adams, Elliott, Howe, Greenwood, Mayne, Cox. 

  • A heap of changes. Key takeaways:
  • Moore likely to remain forward with no De Goey and Elliott as scoring threats – at least, Bucks will start out that way. Will Kelly has been training as a defender lately and will get his shot in defence to replace Howe.
  • Mayne out opens a spot on a wing, which Hoskin-Elliott should grab with the extra key forward. Daicos should also see some midfield minutes here for a similar reason and has runs on the board off a wing.
  • Murphy is a half-back preferably, but whether he plays an attacking role ahead of Maynard/Noble/Quaynor is another question.
  • Rantall is an inside midfielder at VFL level, which the Pies are sorely lack with Adams/De Goey/Sier/Greenwood all missing. About as safe for midfield time as you can get on debut.
  • Macrae was impressive in the last quarter against the Eagles and will hold his hybrid midfield role at a minimum, with scope for improvement (depending on the slants of Sidebottom/Daicos)
  • I can’t really see how Crisp can play anywhere but the midfield here, at least without a big restructure. Too many injuries and 8 (if you include Moore) other defenders named in the side.

Essendon: Zerk-Thatcher, Phillips, Guelfi IN – Ridley, Waterman, Reid OUT
Notable outs: Ridley, Shiel, Caldwell, Draper, Hurley, Stewart. 

  • Zerk-Thatcher/Guelfi to replace Ridley/Reid in defence. Heppell assumed Ridley’s duties in-game last week and probably gets the same treatment again on ANZAC Day.
  • Phillips gives Wright a spell in the ruck, moving into the forward line at the expense of Waterman. Not great for the midfield time of mid/forwards like Stringer and Smith, who will be tethered more to the Forward 50 for tall/small balance.
  • Snelling and Ham have been playing further up the ground lately, but might see those minutes would back slightly for similar reasons.
  • Perkins was super impressive in 56% CBA presence last week, and no midfield change in the Teamsheets suggests he gets another crack.

TRENDS

Collingwood has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the most points to MID’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-least raw points to RUC’s this year.

Essendon has conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Essendon has conceded the most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Essendon has conceded the 3rd-most points to ELITE MID’s this year.

HISTORY

Grundy – 141, 149, 123
Pendlebury – 101, 108, 148
Crisp – 66, 93, 116
Treloar – 131, 109, 105
Adams – 96, 123, 120

Merrett – DNP, 92, 108
McGrath – 81, 104

 

PORT ADELAIDE vs ST KILDA

Adelaide Oval, 6.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 17 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Port $1.21 favourites, 168.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

A shoulder injury ruined Houston’s game at half-time, which was a shame as he’d just wrestled back some midfield currency. Drew came in as his replacement and took off from where Dan left off with that midfield role, but that still left Port with Butters’ midfield time to cover. That’s where Amon came in, playing that hybrid midfield that was mooted in the pre-season and that came to fruition here with 110 AF, plus small boosts for Gray (+17%) and Rozee (+21%). Darcy Byrne-Jones top-scored with 111 AF from 9 marks and seemed to really benefit from having a few regular distributors missing from Port’s defence this week. Mayes patrolled a wing as expected, with Hartlett looking like he was set to join him before suffering a nasty cork that limited him to heavy forward stints in just 45% TOG. Woodcock (81 AF) looked like he was the beneficiary with a few extra minutes up the ground, while Bergman (half-back) and Jonas (designated kick-in duties) were the other roles of note.

St Kilda’s CBA’s matched their late withdrawals, with Hunter replacing Marshall in the ruck and Dunstan sliding into Jones’ (half of a) midfield role. That left Crouch and Steele as full-timers and Bytel close enough to, but Hunter Clark was removed entirely and Ross’ scoring is on life support in a wing role that doesn’t suit his skillset. McKenzie and Hill joined him in the wing rotation, but the former was a turnover machine and the latter was invisible. That left Billings rotting across half forward in an 86-point drubbing against the best defense in the land, so the scoring (57 AF) was lacking and St Kilda have since confirmed that he’s been playing injured on top of all that. Battle remained in defence to allow Carlisle to chop out in the ruck from a key forward post, and we saw once again just how much his floor improves when he’s flicked back. Dougal Howard had another big night with opposition behinds, taking 10 kick-ins and is only a soft-marking match-up away from another slate-breaking performance.

TEAMSHEETS

Port: Drew, Frederick IN – Jones, Mayes OUT
Notable outs: Butters, Duursma, Bonner, Ladhams. 

  • Drew to replace Mayes in the midfield rotation, which returns Amon to a pure wing gig and probably has Houston spending time extra time on the outside too. Scoring-wise, that won’t be a problem for either.
  • Frederick for Jones, lockdown defender L4L. Unlike his twin brother from Freo, Frederick is a genuine key defender and you shouldn’t expect him to score a heap on debut.
  • Port are a defender heavy and a midfielder short, which means that one the half-backs in Byrne-Jones/Burton/Hartlett will have to rotate through that wing again.
  • Be very wary about a late withdrawal here – both Hartlett (corkie) and Houston (shoulder) are coming in under injury clouds from last week, and Rockliff is licking his lips waiting in the wings as an emergency. Mayes as a wingmen too. Either changes would solve their “one midfielder short” issue too.

St Kilda: Marshall, Jones, Long, Joyce IN – Hunter, Bytel, Webster, Dunstan OUT
Notable outs: Gresham, Hannebery, Geary, Frawley, Ryder.

  • I strongly considered a structure where Battle remains in defence and Hunter Clark runs around in the guts, but I think the structure in the table above is more balanced, and therefore more likely.
  • Jones usually plays a hybrid inside/outside role, but Seb Ross is the real wildcard. Has been in the doghouse lately, so I can see anything from half an inside gig, to pure wing time, to banishment to a half-back flank.
  • St Kilda will benefit greatly from having Carlisle in the ruck as little as possible. Marshall should play big minutes up the ground in this one.
  • Billings played hurt last week, including a lot of time up forward. Wide range of outcomes depending on how he’s tracking health-wise.

TRENDS

Port has conceded the 5th-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Port has conceded the 4th-least points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Port has conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Port has conceded the 4th-least points to MID’s this year.

St Kilda has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
St Kilda has conceded the most points to GEN FWD’s this year.
St Kilda has conceded the 3rd-most points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

Lycett – DNP, 99
Byrne-Jones – 83, 89, 95

Steele – 105, 72, 95
Marshall – 119, 126

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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