SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings

 

ADELAIDE vs FREMANTLE

Adelaide Oval, 1.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Adelaide $1.73 favourites, 175.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Rory Sloane’s (eye) loss was (almost) everyone else’s gain, with Keays and Laird on full-time inside duty, followed by the wingman Seedsman (38% CBA share), the TOG-gated Schoenberg (34%) and the incoming Fogarty (34%) on the next rung down. I thought Schoenberg (98 AF) was a lock for more midfield/ground time but it seems like there’s an underlying fitness issue there that prevents the Adelaide coaching staff from using him more often. Seedsman’s vacated wing time was covered by committee rather than any individual receiving a role boost, but Sholl (130 AF) made up for it with an absolute thumper on the opposite wing in 95% game-time. O’Brien (135 AF) is starting to get going, capitalising on a surprisingly leaky Goldstein – although much of that can probably be attributed to North’s defence just throwing the ball on their foot and the opposition ruckman snaffling it up when sitting a kick behind the play. All other roles as expected.

As expected, a top-heavy forward line with Walters at their feet allowed Fyfe to spent the majority of his time in the midfield, and that absorbed a lot of the CBA’s from the hybrid types in Brayshaw (-24%), Cerra (-24%) and Aish (-14%). The wing structure returned to Fremantle’s established norm this week with Acres/Aish the permanent wingmen and Cerra/Brayshaw covering the overlap. The ruck also evened up as Darcy improves his match fitness, increasing last week’s 40-60 split in overall ruck contests with Meek to a 50-50 – I can see Meek being phased out over the coming rounds. Chapman played better than his 67-point score in defence and should improve his fantasy output over the coming rounds, but it was a quiet week for Frederick who lost his high half forward role in covering for Schultz and Switkowski by playing deeper in attack.

TEAMSHEETS

Adelaide: Unchanged.
Notable outs: Crouch, Sloane, Talia, Milera. 

Fremantle: Lobb, Schultz, Logue IN – Meek, Sturt, Watson OUT
Notable outs: Pearce, Hamling, Young, Meek. 

TRENDS

Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Adelaide has conceded the 3rd-least points to MID’s this year.

Fremantle has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.

HISTORY

Laird – 109, 95
O’Brien – 103, 120
B Smith – 94, 80
Lynch – 88, 106

Brayshaw – 133
Cerra – 110, 84, 111
Aish – 103
Mundy – 99, 112, 88
Ryan – 93, 112, 107

 

HAWTHORN vs MELBOURNE

MCG, 3.20pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and mostly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Melbourne $1.24 favourites, 159.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Clear straight swaps for Hawthorn last week prevented us from having to cover any huge changes in the KPI’s, with Hartley taking over from Burgoyne in defence (and more importantly, the kick-ins) the most notable change structurally. The minor changes were Breust stealing a few of Wingard’s CBA’s and McEvoy conceding a few extra ruck contests to Ceglar, but those are well within weekly fluctuations. I’m much more interested in Worpel’s tagging role on Brayshaw, which was something I flagged with his lack of form and CBA’s, and the fact that it resulted in his best score of the year (96 AF) is very intriguing. Could Clarko run it back with a job on Oliver against the Dees, or does his heavy inside role prevent this? Jiath (102 AF) and Impey (97 AF) continue to form a potent combination across half back for the Hawks and it could be worth trying to correlate these two across your line-ups. Morrison (wing), Howe (wing), Moore (half forward) and Scrimshaw (Day’s job in defence) were the other roles of note.

Why change a winning formula? Melbourne’s only significant structural change was a forced one with May copping an elbow to the peeper and having to be subbed out early. That brought an extra midfielder in Sparrow into the match – which had the unintended consequence of putting Jordon’s TOG on life support with just 56% game-time as Melbourne opted not to swap anyone else back into defence to cover (outside of some Angus Brayshaw assistance from a wing). Tomlinson (lockdown defender), Melksham/Jones (half forward), Pickett (deep forward with cameos) and Spargo/Neal-Bullen (forward pockets) were the other roles of note. Hopefully Clayton Oliver breaking the O’Connor tag wide open with 34 touches and 128 AF might make future opposition coaches think twice about tagging him again.

TEAMSHEETS

Hawthorn: Nash, Koschitzke, Hanrahan, Burgoyne IN – Ceglar, Hartley, Lewis, Brockman OUT
Notable outs: Sicily, Day, Grainger-Barrass, Gunston, Ceglar. 

Melbourne: Petty, Hibberd, M Brown IN – Fritsch, May, Jetta OUT
Notable outs: May, Harmes, B Brown, Weideman, Fritsch. 

TRENDS

Hawthorn has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s this year.

Melbourne has conceded the most points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the 5th-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the 4th-least points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the least points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the least raw points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

Shiels – 66, 102, 137
Mitchell – 85, DNP, 83
O’Meara – 96, 83, 126

Oliver – 145, 97, 105
Gawn – 145, 121, 127
Petracca – 120
Viney – 103
Salem – 79, 97

 

GEELONG vs NORTH MELBOURNE

GMHBA, 4.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 17 degrees and cloudy.
BOOKIES: Geelong $1.04 favourites, 163.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

A last-minute change had little effect on Geelong’s structures with Narkle doing exactly what Parfitt was doing anyway, playing a compromised-TOG and part-time midfield role. O’Connor was nowhere near as successful in his tagging duties (both defensively and offensively) this week, and his Oliver tag was dropped late as Geelong slid Duncan back into the inside rotation as the 4-points slipped from their grasp. Expect O’Connor to return to defence with Dangerfield back this week. Clark played across half forward this week with Zach Guthrie’s (back pocket) inclusion and Menegola’s return bumping him from a wing, and the points didn’t flow any easier from there. Henry remained up forward but that could be short-lived with Rohan due to return from injury. Blicavs (key defender), Tuohy (half back) and Close (forward pocket) were the other roles of note.

A late withdrawal for Josh Walker and early injuries to defenders in McDonald (pectoral) and Zurhaar (concussion) once again put North’s defense under immense strain. Luckily, backman Lachie Young was the medical sub and he eased the potential pain somewhat, but it still forced the Roos to get creative with defensive roles for Hayden and the turbo-charged Hall (123 AF). He shared the kick-in duties with Ziebell and could be worth a long look in DFS if he maintains this role (in other words, if Noble refuses to pick actual defenders). Powell was extremely impressive with the extra inside time (15% to 45%) and I can’t see that dropping following his performance. Turner was given a cooling role on Laird after his busy first term which explains his 35% CBA share, but Stephenson (wing/half forward), Scott (half forward), and Thomas (half forward) were told to get comfortable on the outside. 

TEAMSHEETS

Geelong: Parfitt, Rohan, Dangerfield, De Koning IN – Clark, O’Connor, Narkle, Z Guthrie OUT
Notable outs: Higgins, Cameron, Clark, O’Connor. 

North: J Walker, Bosenvulagi, Young IN – Zurhaar, Davies-Uniacke, McDonald OUT
Notable outs: Dumont, Anderson, McDonald, Zurhaar, Polec, Tarrant, Davies-Uniacke. 

TRENDS

Geelong has conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN DEF’s this year.

North has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
North has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN FWD’s in L3.
North has conceded the 3rd-most points to MID’s this year.
North has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

Duncan – 120, 104, 142
Guthrie – 119
Menegola – 115
Hawkins – 99, 105, 81
Stewart – 78, 80, 89
Dangerfield76, 114, 96 (forward role)

Simpkin – 101
Goldstein – 83, 95, 79

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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