SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings

 

NORTH MELBOURNE vs ADELAIDE

Marvel, 1.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: Under the roof.
BOOKIES: Adelaide $1.36 favourites, 180.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Cunnington can only do one thing and that’s smashing skulls at centre bounces, so his 79% CBA share did some damage to his teammates… Or it would have if Anderson’s injury hadn’t been an in-game circuit breaker. Still, Stephenson can say goodbye to anything more than a cameo with most of his onball teammates fit, and 53% for LDU is probably about right log-term. Powell (12% share) and Phillips (9%) haven’t really been given a crack at their preferred positions yet, and it’ll be interesting to see if Noble flicks the “turbo rebuild” switch with that pair at some point as North’s record worsens. It’s hard to take too much out of that flogging from the Bulldogs in terms of form, which is pretty much what North deserved after picking only 4 genuine defenders – one of which was Ziebell (139 AF, 7 self kick-ins), who’s only been doing the job for a month. Polec (hamstring) started across half back before being subbed out of the match – with Hall (99 AF) covering him thereafter – while Walker and Zurhaar played out the game in defense. Stephenson/Scott (wing/half forward), Powell/Phillips (wings) and Lazzaro (high half forward) were the other roles of note.

Just regular fluctuations for the Adelaide midfield group, who’ve nutted out a clear hierarchy with their onballers – although Schoenberg’s critically low TOG is worth pointing out again. Reilly O’Brien punched out a much-needed 96 AF, but be aware that he scored most of that after Witts ruptured his ACL in the third quarter and he was left without a sparring partner in the ruck. Seedsman and Sholl owned their wings, with Brodie Smith finally showing up with 100 AF as the designated kicker in defence. McPherson’s scoring continues to be stifled as he’s forced to play tall and lockdown with Adelaide’s backline injuries. Consistent roles elsewhere… including the big Texan, who’s going absolutely bonkers (6.3 for 139 AF) as a lead up forward in the new world order. 

TEAMSHEETS

North: McDonald, Bonar, Hayden IN – Polec, Anderson, Young OUT
Notable outs: Anderson, Polec, Dumont, Tyson, Tarrant, Corr, Young. 

  • McDonald/Bonar replaces Polec/Young in defence, which means that one of Hall/Zurhaar needs to remain down back. I’ve gone with Hall because I don’t think that North can survive with just Larkey up forward, and they need still need Walker to play tall in defence.
  • Anderson’s injury opens up some midfield time that was already getting scarce. LDU, Stephenson, Powell and Phillips are in the running to get a little midfield boost, while Hayden has played a range of roles over the past couple of years, including inside midfielder in the AAMI.
  • Careful with Ziebell this week – his kick-in numbers could be diluted somewhat by McDonald returning.

Adelaide: Fogarty IN – Sloane OUT
Notable outs: Crouch, Sloane, Hately, Talia, Milera. 

  • Fogarty was playing a MID/FWD role in the reserves, and with an obvious CBA hole with all of Crouch, Sloane and Hately missing, I think he partially covers the void left by his skipper.
  • Schoenberg’s KPI’s have been pretty dire so he likely steps into more game-time and more centre bounces to assist.

TRENDS

North has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
North has conceded the most points to GEN FWD’s this year.
North has conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s this year.
North has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s this year.

Adelaide has conceded the 3rd-least points to MID’s this year.
Adelaide has conceded the least points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

McDonald – 148
Hall – 140
Goldstein – 103, 93, 85
Davies-Uniacke – 98

Laird – 101, 115, 138
O’Brien – 101, 84
Seedsman – 101, 102

 

MELBOURNE vs GEELONG

MCG, 3.20pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$20,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 35 max)
WEATHER: 13 degrees and mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Geelong $1.85 favourites, 165.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The 70% ruck role for Gawn is slightly concerning, but I’m not going to complain if it results in 2 goals and 9 marks a game when he drifts forward. Oliver was tagged by de Boer then Ward once the former went down, so you can disregard his low score… Until you remember that O’Connor is next up. The midfield rotation is pretty set for the Demons with their current mix, and it’s encouraging to see Jordon still having an impact with only a rough 30% CBA share. Sparrow? Not so much, lost in a half forward rotation. The Giants only kicked 2 behinds last week so May wasn’t able to cash in on the designated kicker’s boost, but he’ll be right back in the thick of it when Geelong pepper the goalfront. Hunt (98 AF, 25 touches) had another strong game off half back, so I probably sent him off to the glue factory a little too early a fortnight ago. And forgive me for jinxing it, but is Brayshaw finally warming up in his pure wing role with 92 AF? Pickett upswung with 4 goals and a few CBA cameos; but to score only 75 AF given those hits is a significant worry as far as ceiling is concerned. 

O’Connor stalked Mitchell (71 AF) like a crazy ex-girlfriend, a week after holding Neale to 51 AF. Geelong seems to be using him as a Dangerfield placeholder until his suspension is up, so expect the Irishman to have another week in the trenches with the scent of Clayton Oliver thick in his nostrils. Duncan returned but showed he doesn’t need midfield time to rack it up, scoring 130 AF with a sweeping wing role – he even took the most kick-ins for the Cats. He linked up repeatedly with Guthrie, who was spoon-fed a lot of his 43 touches through short kicks out of defense and the 11 marks that they resulted in. Geelong still hasn’t completely decided what they’re doing with their long list of defenders, but this week it was Blicavs and Tuohy back, Clark on a wing and Henry switching ends once the Cats lost forwards in Evans and Higgins during the game. Holmes was impressive on debut, particularly early as he linked up from a high half forward post, but drifted out of the game as it wore on.

TEAMSHEETS

Melbourne: Melksham IN – Sparrow OUT
Notable outs: Harmes, B Brown, Weideman. 

  • Melksham for Sparrow doesn’t change too much for the rolling Demons, outside of potentially a few more CBA’s to go around for Jordon if they don’t treat it as a straight swap. Overall though, Melbourne won’t try and fix what ain’t broke after logging a 3-0 record to start the year.

Geelong: Menegola, Close, Z Guthrie IN – Evans, Holmes, Higgins OUT
Notable outs: Dangerfield, Cameron, Higgins. 

  • Geelong surprise us in some way every week, and adding another defender to the 9 they already had is a great start. I’ve played it safe with Blicavs (key defender), Tuohy (half-back), Clark (defensive wing), O’Connor (tagging), Henry (forward) and the incoming Zach Guthrie playing the small forward role from a couple of weeks ago, but there’s obviously plenty of scope for those to change.
  • Close replaces Evans as a dedicated small forward.
  • O’Connor likely to tag Clayton Oliver, which would follow the inside midfielder (Neale, Mitchell) blueprint he’s worked off so far. Petracca not out of the question either, but Oliver the hot favourite.

TRENDS

Melbourne has conceded the most points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the least points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the 5th-least points to RUC’s this year.

Geelong has conceded the 3rd-least points to MID’s this year.

HISTORY

Gawn – 124, 113, 91
Oliver – 98, 130, 136
Petracca – 95, 69, 110
Brayshaw – 88, 117, 88
Viney – 85, 115

Guthrie – 133
Menegola – 133, 94, 115
O’Connor – 128
Duncan – 120, 108, 124
Parfitt – 110, 93
Selwood – 96, 92
Stewart – DNP, 115, 81

 

FREMANTLE vs HAWTHORN

Optus, 4.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$20,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 35 max)
WEATHER: 22 degrees and showers.
BOOKIES: Fremantle $1.21 favourites, 154.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Fremantle have been extremely consistent with their midfield over the past 12 months and a disappointing loss at the hands of Carlton didn’t cause Longmuir to change his structures. Walters snuck into the rotation without Fyfe, and Cerra played a few more minutes, but that’s about it. Giro was the top-scoring Docker with 88 AF in a defensive wing role, joined by Aish and Acres in the outside rotation. Meek and Darcy ran another 60-40 ruck split, but that could be short-lived with Meek beaten and Treacy waiting in the wings. Frederick (high half forward) and Chapman (half back) looked solid at either end and should be locked into their roles with Young (hamstring) and Schultz (concussion) in-game injuries for the Dockers. Ryan has first dibs at the kick-ins and that helped float his score up to 82 AF despite a relatively rough day at the office. 

Wingard in and Burgoyne (who tagged Dusty the previous week) out was the prevailing structural change for the Hawks midfield, with the veteran shifting to a defensive post this week. Next week he might be a forward, or a back-up ruckman, or an astronaut. Who knows. O’Meara enjoyed the freedom in the midfield with Mitchell tagged, but Worpel (53 AF) still couldn’t get going without the slew of CBA’s he’s enjoyed over the previous two seasons. McEvoy’s 66% ruckshare was his highest so far this year, and 98 points was the reward for his extra proximity around the footy. Jiath (100 AF) was eye-catching once again across half-back (and actually toned down his turnovers this week) and he, Scrimshaw (95 AF) and Impey (98 AF) formed a potent trio across half-back. Morrison (73 AF) was up to a wing this week and didn’t get as much easy pill as he did in Round 2, but still played his part. Phillips and Howe joined him in that rotation, with the latter coughing up some brutal clangers when the game was on the line late.

TEAMSHEETS

Fremantle: Treacy, Fyfe, Sturt, Watson IN – Young, Schultz, Giro, Switkowski OUT
Notable outs: Hamling, Pearce, Young, Lobb, Schultz, Tucker. 

  • Treacy/Sturt replaces Schultz/Switkowski up forward, which suddenly morphs one of the smallest forward lines into the tallest. I personally can’t see the Dockers taking 3 tall forwards and a ruckman into a wet game at Optus, so don’t be surprised to see the Dockers drop Darcy or Meek if the weather starts to spook them.
  • Fyfe for Giro in the midfield rotation, and the skipper is looking at a full game in the guts with Walters forward and all those talls named. Might force Brayshaw or Cerra to slid over onto a wing for more than usual.
  • Watson’s return allows Ryan to slide back over to his preferred intercepting role. On top of the kick-in duties, it’s an excellent dual-responsibility to have in DFS.
  • Treacy, from the Fremantle Studfinder article:

Hawthorn: Hartley, O’Brien IN – Koschitzke, Burgoyne OUT
Notable outs: Sicily, Day, Gunston, Burgoyne. 

  • Hartley for Burgoyne, O’Brien for Koschitzke gives us L4L changes for Hawks.
  • Means that Morrison is likely to play up on a defensive wing again, although that’s not necessarily better for his scoring with the way the Hawthorn defenders are sharing it around this year.
  • No midfield relief for Worpel or Shiels, who’ve been bumped down the priority list with Wingard’s full-time midfield role last week. Could Clarko give one of this pair a job to get them going, maybe a tag of Fyfe or a run-with job on Brayshaw (which would require less CBA time)?

TRENDS

Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Fremantle has conceded the most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Fremantle has conceded the 5th-most points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Fremantle has conceded the 2nd-least points to RUC’s this year.

Hawthorn has conceded the most points to ELITE MID’s this year.
Hawthorn has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s this year.

HISTORY

Cerra – 130
Brayshaw – 123, 82, 96
Fyfe – 119, 128
Ryan – 106, 101
Mundy – 101, 91, 128

Worpel – 121, 118
Mitchell – 111, DNP, 160
Morrison – 84
Scrimshaw – 84
Wingard – 84, 87

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings, @Baked_Beams on Twitter and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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