SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$4,000 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 9 max)

 

WESTERN BULLDOGS vs BRISBANE

Mars Stadium, 1.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 13 degrees and showers.
BOOKIES: Bulldogs $1.51 favourites, 168.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The Bulldogs basically ran a training session last week, so we’ll focus more on the processes rather than the outcomes (cough Josh Bruce cough). Their CBA’s morphed closer to what we expected in the pre-season with Treloar (+40%) rising to the second-most prevalent inside midfielder behind Macrae, and his scoring responded accordingly with his first ton of the season. English wiggled his way into more ruck time with Stef struggling for the second week in a row – one to track. The Bulldogs are so hot right now that they have little reason to mess with their structures, save for Wood/Johannisen returning to the back 7 unit and Scott switching to a more familiar HFF role. Dale was all set to return to the forward line until Gardner went down in the opening moments of the game, with the medical sub Lipinski the extra forward rotation instead. Hunter’s (64 AF) new wing/HFF rotation is now officially a concern. 

It was pretty grim for the Lions in the ruck in Round 3, with Fullarton and Ballenden both within their legal rights to sue Grundy for workplace bullying as the pair tried to weather a 100-year storm without McInerney. Neale escaped a tag and we saw his KPI’s and scoring both return to expected levels, although his last-half drop off, combined with the reported soreness, is a small concern. Deven Robertson played Jarrod Berry’s role across half forward in his season debut and crushed it, racking up 7 marks and 7 tackles to punch out a 93-point total despite the lack of pure midfield minutes. Robinson was back out to his wing as a result, and he upswung against Collingwood’s wide-open wings. As we expect with contenders, there were consistent roles across the board – save for Ah Chee, who switched into attack with another defender (Adams) added to the squad.

TEAMSHEETS

Bulldogs: Lipinski IN – Gardner OUT
Notable outs: Crozier, Gardner, Ugle-Hagan. 

  • Pretty simple swap, given it was the in-game change following Gardner’s early injury. Bulldogs essentially line up as they did last week, with Lipinski marooned up forward.
  • All eyes are on the CBA time of Treloar following his steady growth over the first few rounds, and I can’t say I’m loving Hunter’s M/F role at the moment.

Brisbane: McInerney, J Berry, Gardiner IN – Ah Chee, Ballenden, Payne OUT
Notable outs: Rayner, Cockatoo, Ah Chee. 

  • Gardiner replaces Payne, L4L.
  • McInerney replaces Ballenden, sliding Fullarton back to a chop-out ruck role.
  • Robertson survives following his awesome season debut, but Jarrod Berry returns for the forward Ah Chee. CBA’s are going to be extremely hard to find for Deven, although McCarthy could lose his cameos to fit the senior Berry into the packed HFF/midfield rotation. Could be a good time to fade Robertson while the field overreacts to last week’s 93 AF.
  • Does Neale cop a tag after running riot when left alone in the first half last week? I’m not sure who the Bulldogs would feel comfortable sacrificing to lock him down… I reckon they just try and out-accumulate the Brownlow Medalist here. They certainly have the globetrotters style and personnel to do it.

TRENDS

Bulldogs have conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Bulldogs have conceded the 2nd-least points to MID’s this year.

Brisbane has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Brisbane has conceded EASILY the most points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

Macrae – 160, 151, 98
Bontempelli – 123, 139, 98
Dunkley – 83, 113, 127
Daniel – 80, 91
Williams – 100
Hunter – DNP, 79, 123

Neale – 150, 91, 91
Zorko – 144, 53, 134
McCluggage – 125, 61, 104
Bailey – 121
Lyons – 118, 96, 89
Hipwood – 91, 90, 81

 

ST KILDA vs WEST COAST

Marvel, 4.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: Under the roof.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.38 favourites, 177.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The sheer size of the table above shows just how much the Saints are hurting, particularly in the ruck where they ran a filthy McKernan/Carlisle 50-50 rotation following Hunter’s absence. Brad Crouch was quiet in his St Kilda debut, and finding his CBA’s turned out to be easier than expected with Gresham going down early with an Achilles injury; Higgins (half forward), Butler (forward pocket) and Sinclair (half back) can probably expect not to see those CBA cameos with a fully fit midfield. Speaking of, Zak Jones’ 62% was a concern, with the soft-tissue-inclined Saint stranded on the bench at the end of the game. McKenzie (half back), Wood (high half forward), Battle (third tall forward), and Hill (wing) were the other roles of note on a dark day for the Saints.  

The Eagles had the entire game on their terms against the Power, with only a last quarter hamstring injury to the rampant Shuey souring their big night at home. Gaff was back in form with 154 from 13 marks, and nothing particularly changed in terms of role – he just got going with West Coast hot and his teammates hitting him up repeatedly. Naitanui and Allen ran a 2020-esque timeshare in the ruck with Oscar taking 35% of the ruck contests – probably not a sustainable role for him. Nelson didn’t have a tag target which means that he racked up his 101 AF all by himself across half back, which allowed Duggan to return to his mostly-wing midfield role. Jones (26 AF) played as a deep small forward which kills off any fantasy appeal, although Brander (85 AF) bounding off a high half forward flank is worth keeping an eye on. All other roles as expected.

TEAMSHEETS

St Kilda: Marshall, Bytel, Webster IN – Gresham, Wood, McKernan OUT
Notable outs: Gresham, Hannebery, Ryder, McKernan, Frawley, Wood. 

  • Marshall in for McKernan as the main ruck, with Carlisle chopping out from defense (where I think he’ll be needed with West Coast’s tall forward line). Webster’s inclusion gives St Kilda a rare 8-man defensive rotation, but that makes sense with Carlisle covering the ruck and Clark/Sinclair playing through part-time through the midfield.
  • Bytel comes in for Gresham, but arrives at the bottom of the midfield totem pole. I think he’ll have to rotate a fair bit through half forward if Carlisle does in fact play back, but just be aware that there’s potential for heavy midfield time if St Kilda play Carlisle forward and shuffle Clark/Sinclair to full-time defensive gigs.
  • I have Higgins playing deep forward, but ditto the above disclaimer.

West Coast: Waterman IN – Shuey OUT
Notable outs: Shuey, Yeo, Vardy, Williams, Hutchings. 

  • The Eagles rarely offer up structural surprises, so it’s simply Shuey out, Brander up to a wing, Waterman as the high half forward.
  • That leaves Allen in the 35/65 ruck timeshare with Naitanui, and I think it actually hurts his fantasy game, or at least his ceiling in GPP’s. Oscar scales off goals and marks and he doesn’t do as much as a ruckman, and it’s not like he gets the hitouts to make up for it. Food for thought.

TRENDS

St Kilda has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY DEF’s this year.
St Kilda has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
St Kilda has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN FWD’s this year.
St Kilda has conceded the 3rd-most points to RUC’s this year.

West Coast has conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY FWD’s this year.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-least points to GEN FWD’s this year.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

Steele – 128, 90
Ryder – 119
Ross – 86, 94, 95
Sinclair – 81, 78, 121

Kelly – 149
Gaff – 138, 108, 102
Naitanui – 118, DNP, 95
Ryan – 96, 85
Duggan – 86, 81, 75
Sheed – DNP, 94, 89

GOLD COAST vs CARLTON

Metricon, 7.25pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 24 degrees and clear, humid.
BOOKIES: Carlton $1.85 favourites, 169.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Gold Coast have 2 or 3 first choice injuries this year, but the problem is that behind Witts, the rest of their injury list is flush with every person at the club to have ever recorded a hitout. Burgess took the reins after the Suns co-skipper went down, and actually scored at a decent clip in the final stretch. The midfield was relatively settled outside of that jarring change, although it’s probably time we concluded the Will Brodie (30 AF, -22% CBA) experiment. Just like last year, Greenwood has been excellent without Rowell (93, 126) in the guts ahead of him, helped by 23 tackles over the past fortnight. Bowes continues to thrive with Lukosius’ move up to a wing easing the overlap between their skillsets, scoring 101 AF on the back of 6 self kick-ins and 8 marks as the designated kicker in defence. No significant role changes for the Suns this week, with Swallow’s 48-point dud just a classic stinker rather than the result of a malicious role change or anything like that.

Carlton’s “break glass in case of emergency” has always been hurling Ed Curnow back into the trenches, and after a 0-2 start to the season, that’s exactly what they did with a 50% bump. Walsh covered some of his wing time and Zac Williams (knee) spent a bit of time forward which helped, but it was the (almost) complete removal of Dow (only 10% CBA presence) from the midfield that really allowed Curnow to start hunting the pill again. Fogarty (7 marks and 7 tackles) is showing his worth as a high half forward and hasn’t had a bad game this year – it’s probably about time he got some respect in the DFS lobbies. McKay (137 from 7.5) and Liam Jones (88 from 9 marks) capitalised on Fremantle’s decimated key position stocks at either end, but just be aware that they’ll never get a softer match-up structurally than in this one. Newnes and Cottrell were the primary wingmen, with Murphy still trying to figure out the HFF role. Silvagni returned and was effective in the 3rd tall forward role, while Parks got involved on debut with 58 AF off half back.

TEAMSHEETS

Gold Coast: Graham, Holman IN – Witts, Brodie OUT
Notable outs: Rowell, Witts, Day, Z Smith, Conroy, Brodie. 

  • The Witts replacement dilemma. I mulled over this one for a long time, but I don’t see how the Suns can afford not to have Burgess/Graham rotating through the forward line with King the only key forward in the side. Whether that’s the 195cm Graham or the 191cm Burgess, I’m not sure, but the way I see it – if you’re going to throw the ruck, you might as well keep the forward up forward. Very relevant for all forms of fantasy, this one, so think it through carefully before committing to huge exposures.
  • Holman replaces Brodie, but has much more experience playing as a permanent pressure forward. Releases the strain on Gold Coast’s CBA’s, too.
  • Greenwood without Rowell = tackling machine.

Carlton: Setterfield IN – Williams OUT
Notable outs: Williams, Martin, Fisher, De Koning. 

  • Setterfield a straight swap Williams in the midfield, although heavier on the wing time with Ed Curnow likely to keep his inside role. Not sure that changes the thinking on Dow’s role at all.
  • Cottrell cheap enough to look at in a wing role, but we haven’t seen a ceiling from him yet an AFL level.
  • Anytime Cripps walks onto a footy field, you need to consider the possibility of a tag. Miller has gone to him in the past and Holman could even be called upon; so given that he was back in ominous form last week, take care.

TRENDS

Gold Coast has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Gold Coast has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY FWD’s this year.

Carlton has conceded the least points to GEN DEF’s this year.

HISTORY

Lukosius – 109
Bowes – 98
Swallow – 95, 73, 105
Miller – 93, 143, 149

Ed Curnow – 119, 125, 86
Cripps – 119, 55, 163
Docherty – 90, DNP, DNP
Walsh – 84, 89, 119
McKay – 99, 102

 

COLLINGWOOD vs GWS

MCG, 7.25pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 14 degrees and mostly cloudy, chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Collingwood $1.23 favourites, 160.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Finally, some semblance of consistency for the Pies. De Goey got comfortable with his new CBA split without Elliott, but 28% is simply not enough to break him out of the high-variance forward DFS zone. Mayne returned to the senior side and parked himself on a wing, joining Tyler Brown in that rotation with Crisp (guts) and Sidebottom (half forward) covering the overlap. Daicos was completely out of that group, used as a permanent forward with Collingwood’s lack of scoring threats. Hoskin-Elliott continues to be shoehorned into Stephenson’s old goalsquare role and can’t get anything going at the moment; he’s almost unpickable without wing time. Grundy was the difference in this game, giving Collingwood the edge at stoppages with Brisbane sending human sacrifices his way in the ruck. Roughead (114 AF) had a massive upswing with 17 marks, but we can put that one down to a match-up quirk more than anything else (Howe had 113 AF from 8 and Quaynor hit 99 AF from 9 to strengthen the trend). 

It was a bad day to be stationed in GWS’s medical tent in Round 3, with all of Coniglio, de Boer and Davis succumbing to medium-term injuries. That resulted in CBA boosts for bulls in Hopper and Ward (who took over de Boer’s Oliver tag) as you’d expect, although Tom Green was still persisted with across half forward with a 47% inside role in his typically-reduced TOG. Interestingly, Tim Taranto only played 57% of his time inside despite the fallen soldiers, but at least he rotated through the wing rather than deep forward this time around. Josh Kelly came into the game with a lingering illness but pushed through, which might help explain his slow start and the 0 CBA’s. There’s a lot to figure out with this midfield rotation, and Round 4 could be the hard reset they need. Perryman’s absence sent Buckley back to defence, but more importantly, it opened the door for Ash to sneak some kick-in duties and saw an instant boost in a Cumming-matching 91 AF. Greene was an absolute monster up forward, but he’s doing it solo with only Keeffe (chop-out ruckman) and Himmelberg offering any kind of aerial assistance. O’Halloran had some impressive passages but had to do all his work off a half forward flank and the lack of inside time murders his upside. Shipley slotted in on a wing when coming on as the medical sub and had solid PPM numbers (if he ever gets a full game).

TEAMSHEETS

Collingwood: McCreery IN – T Brown OUT
Notable outs: Elliott, T Brown. 

  • McCreery will slot in up forward (see his blurb from the Studfinder article below), which allows Sidebottom (or even Daicos) to shuffle back to a wing role.
  • Unfortunately, it doesn’t help out De Goey much given it’s pure wing time opening up in the guts.
  • No change to defence means Crisp remains a Swiss Army Knife midfielder.

GWS: Mumford, Riccardi, Finlayson, Stone IN – Flynn, Davis, Coniglio, de Boer OUT
Notable outs: Whitfield, Coniglio, Flynn, Davis, de Boer, Preuss, Hogan. 

  • There’s a lot of moving parts with all the changes, so the table above is a best guess/safe scenario. The key takeaways:
  • Mumford replaces Flynn in the ruck.
  • Keeffe definitely moves back with Riccardi/Finlayson in.
  • The probably bumps up Buckley onto a wing, although Ash could easily get that gig instead.
  • No Whitfield/Perryman casts Kelly as pure wingman, or at least heavily slanted that way. Ward can cover whatever he doesn’t.
  • No Coniglio loosens the inside midfield squeeze, so I’m expecting we’ll see more of Taranto and Tom Green at the CBA’s, while O’Halloran even has the potential to sneak some attendances after going without last week.
  • Stone to debut but will play up forward, and I’m not expecting a heap in DFS (see his blurb from the Studfinder article below).

TRENDS

Collingwood has conceded the 5th-most points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Collingwood has conceded the most points to MID’s this year.

GWS has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN FWD’s this year.
GWS has conceded the 5th-most points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

Grundy – 146, 164, 181
Adams – 120, 100, 111
Howe – 115, 107
Maynard – 105, 103
Pendlebury – 101, 94, 109
Crisp – 86, 126, 101
De Goey – 40, DNP, 75

Kelly – 115, 117, DNP
Taranto – DNP, 122, 145
Greene – 91, DNP, 115
Haynes – 88, 124

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings, @Baked_Beams on Twitter and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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