COLLINGWOOD vs BRISBANE

Marvel, 7.40pm AEDT

MAIN SLATES:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$8,000 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 18 max)
WEATHER: Under the roof.
BOOKIES: Collingwood $1.80 favourites, 172.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The injury to Jamie Elliott caused significant fantasy blowback, with De Goey’s midfield splits even more reduced to the point where he was a permanent forward in the second half as goalkicking cover. Crisp was the beneficiary once again, spending 53% of his game as an inside midfielder and scored accordingly with 117 AF, while Daicos wiggled his way into the mix with 18% CBA presence. Old man Sidebottom eased into his return game with a heavy forward split on top of some midfield nibbles, and that should increase as his match fitness improves. Tyler Brown and Daicos owned the wings in this one, with Noble moving back to a half-back flank with Sidey back in the midfield mix. Grundy (122 AF) was back to his dominant best, flexing against an inexperienced tap ruckman and aided heavily by taking 91% of the ruck contests for Collingwood. Hoskin-Elliott (ranging marking forward), Callum Brown (half forward) and Darcy Moore (main intercept defender over Howe) were the other roles of note.

The late withdrawal of Jarrod Berry gave Mitch Robinson a chance to move onto the inside for the first time in years (not that it reflected in his scoring), with late inclusion Prior slotting in on a wing. Combined with the rookie wingman Sharp, Brisbane looked a little skinny on the outside and McCluggage had to play a full wing role to keep the experience balanced as well as the inside/outside splits. Neale copped a surprise O’Connor tag and never got going, and the Lions eventually resorted to moving him into different starting positions to try and shake it (which explains his curiously low CBA rate). McInerney’s CBA reduction was due to an ankle injury, and the Big O was not moving well for the majority of the game as a result. Fullarton covered the ruck, but did about as well as you’d expect a guy who looks like a Jarrod Berry imposter would do in the hitout department. Zorko and Bailey are locked into this MID/FWD rotation it seems, with Fagan having their opportunity to crank up their inside time against the Cats, but opting not to. Rich continues his elite late-career consistency, helped out by another 6 freebies from the kick-ins. 

TEAMSHEETS

Collingwood: Mayne IN – Elliott OUT
Notable outs: Elliott.

  • Even though I think Collingwood should turn back the clock with Mayne: Key Forward Edition, they’re a stubborn bunch and will likely slot him back into the wing role that revived his career.
  • The obvious restructure is De Goey to a permanent forward role. Not ideal, but there’s no point in Collingwood playing him in the guts and having him looking up, streaming into F50 and… seeing a bunch of spuds as he’s not able to kick it to himself.
  • A flow on from both of those – Mayne on a wing and Pies needing someone who can kick goals – is Daicos to a more forward-centric role. Sidebottom may join him, depending on how he pulled up and whether Collingwood think Tyler Brown on a wing and Sidey forward is a net positive compared to the reverse. I do.
  • Crisp was relied on heavily by Bucks to fill in the wing/inside midfield voids last week, and gets the Swiss Army Knife role again here. Noble went back to half-back so Crisp could play inside last week, and with the wings receiving a boost with Mayne, I think that continues.

Brisbane: Ballenden, Adams, Robertson IN – Sharp, Prior, McInerney OUT
Notable outs: McInerney, Sharp, Rayner.

  • Ballendon for McInerney, ruck L4L. Fullarton showed last week he’s not good for anything more than a chop out.
  • Adams’ inclusion sparks a restructure – Ah Chee moves into attack and Lester plays a more attacking style.
  • Two midfielders out with only 1 back in is great news for Deven Robertson. Base-priced, huge ball-winner as a junior and won’t have to rot in a forward pocket this time around (like he did on debut). May play limited 65-70% TOG as many rookie midfielders do these days, but as a $5k FWD on Draftstars, you take that every day of the week. This is the chalk you eat.
  • Robinson slides back to a wing to allow Robertson to play on the inside. Say that 5 times fast.
  • Zorko and Bailey were both set in their M/F rotation last week despite the late out of Berry, and I think that might’ve been a mistake. Expect a couple more midfield minutes for one or both.

TRENDS

Collingwood conceded the 3rd-most points to Key DEF’s last year.
Collingwood conceded the most points to Gen DEF’s last year.
Collingwood conceded the 2nd-most points to Elite MID’s last year.
Collingwood conceded the 4th-least points to RUC’s last year.

Brisbane conceded the 2nd-least points to Key DEF’s last year.
Brisbane conceded the 5th-least points to Gen DEF’s last year.

HISTORY

Crisp – 151, 103, 108
Pendlebury – 135, 93
Grundy – 95, 78, 89 (double ruck)
Adams – 115, 56, 93

Neale – 119, 76
J Berry – 119, 84
Lyons – 118, 37
McCluggage – 95, 95

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Taylor Adams – M – $15,830 DS

It’s hard to look past Adams as Collingwood’s only full-time inside midfielder, scoring 121 from 18 contested possessions (2nd-highest over the whole round) and 7 tackles. He’s guaranteed to be around the footy all game, just like Guthrie (117) and Selwood (104) were last week as Geelong’s most prominent inside MID’s against the Lions. With an excellent floor and arguably the highest ceiling of anyone wearing the prison bars, Adams has to be just as prominent in your exposures this Thursday evening. 

BEST VALUE: Zac Bailey – M – $8,250 DS 

Bailey scored a solid 70 last week – which should’ve been more like 90, on the harsh end of a couple of massive umpiring blunders – yet still cops a puzzling price reduction on Draftstars. Fine with me. Bailey finally has a fleshed-out midfield role that ensures his floor is always healthy, with the ability to rack up against a weakened Collingwood outfit. Add him to your core.

BEST RUCK: Brodie Grundy – R – $14,380 DS 

The Lions have conceded hefty scores to 3rd-tier ruckmen of 92 (Hickey) and 109 (Stanley) so far this year – what will they give up to an elite unit like Grundy? That was with Big O at the helm too – an actual, proper ruckman – who has been replaced by scraping the bottom of the ruck barrel and throwing whichever of Fullarton and Ballenden seem likely to shit their pants less violently. Grundy is fresh off a 122-point statement game last week and probably won’t run into an cruiser Thursday night shift for the rest of his career. 

BEST STAT: Daniel Rich – D – $13,200 DS

We know that Collingwood were famously leaky to DEF’s last year, but has that trend rolled over into the 2021 season with the rule changes? Absolutely. Short (12 marks, 171 AF) and Baker (9 marks, 93 AF) started the party in the AAMI before Daniel (111), Williams (106) and Duryea (87) all got going across half-back in Round 1, while Docherty (9 marks, 92 AF) and Plowman (10 marks, 87 AF) solidified the trend in a loss a week later. Pairing Rich with some lesser Lions is a very attractive way to build your line-ups on Thursday, especially with the designated distributor averaging 6 self kick-ins over their three games so far this year. 

BEST RETHINK: Jordan De Goey – F/M – $11,580 DS 

How fast the tide turns in the AFL landscape. A fortnight ago, De Goey was coming off an eye-catching 127-point AAMI performance that included 19 CBA’s as a full-time midfielder. Fast forward to Round 3, and that midfield split will be lucky to reach 25% after just 8 and 5 CBA’s in the first two rounds  – on top of the leg injury to Jamie Elliott that makes it less and less likely that his crucial midfield time will be jumping back up anytime soon. De Goey needed 4.3 to reach a modest 90 AF last week, meaning he has no ceiling and a slate-poisoning basement if he isn’t able to snag those goals. 

 

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