GEELONG vs BRISBANE 

GMHBA, 7.50pm ADST

MAIN SLATES:
$100,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 165 max)
Coming soon on Draftkings
WEATHER: 21 degrees and mostly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Geelong $1.63 favourites, 171.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Stanley’s return as the #1 ruckman cut down Jenkins’ time near the footy sharply, and his scoring followed suit with a drop from 86 AF in the AAMI to just 35 AF as a key forward/relief ruckman… until Blicavs was preferred as the chop out in the second half. Parfitt continued the trend of young guns dominating despite heavy wing slants to their hybrid midfield roles, scoring a team-high 101 AF with a significant reduction to his CBA since the AAMI. Higgins surprisingly kicked him out with a big midfield bump, even taking into account his low TOG in the full dress rehearsal – he got a lot of the footy in the sweeper role that he was used in at North in his final season there. Dangerfield started forward but spent the final 3 quarters as a full-time midfielder given Adelaide’s ambush, although he’ll have plenty of time to rest up following his 3-game suspension for causing a head clash. Clark was a spare parts player and it was hard to narrow down a specific role for him – he spent time in all thirds of the ground. Atkins (half back), Zach Guthrie (forward then switched back when Blicavs moved up the ground) and Constable (hybrid midfielder after being subbed on for Menegola) were the other roles of note. Stewart and Clark juggled the kick-ins once again.

Brisbane have been a very settled side over the past two seasons and it was no different in Round 1 – aside from the curious removal of Hugh McCluggage from the CBA core. He was used purely as a wingman, which I guess is better than playing forward, but for Robinson to get CBA’s ahead of him is very interesting and worth tracking. Fagan delivered on his promise to inject a few cameos to the midfield mix, with both Cameron and McCarthy whetting their CBA whistles. Zac Bailey ran the Zorko program of a MID/FWD rotation, which left the wing time to be covered by the debutant Sharp along with the aforementioned McCluggage/Robinson. Ah Chee (half back), Lester (back pocket) and Fullarton (key forward/chop out ruckman) were the other roles of note.

TEAMSHEETS

Geelong: Constable, Henry, Tuohy, Evans IN – Dangerfield, Menegola, Z Guthrie, Jenkins OUT
Notable outs: Dangerfield, Cameron, Duncan, Fort, Menegola, Jenkins.

  • Blicavs taking over the ruck duties last week, plus Jenkins being dropped, plus Menegola being injured, plus Henry being added… It’s all the ingredients required for Blitz’s famous wing/ruck rotation from 2020. If you’ve been following along, he’s a much better scorer in that role and needs heavy attention when deciding your exposures on this slate.
  • Tuohy was the other weird Geelong role last year with a high half forward assignment, and the conditions are right for another crack at that gig. The Geelong website mentions he might be considered for the wing rotation, so either way, he’ll be spending plenty of time between the arcs on Friday night.
  • Clark did a bit of everything last week and all the turbulence with 4 changes doesn’t help settle things down for him. Anywhere between a wing and half-back and he’s looking at a clear path to a big score.
  • Constable should be pretty comfortable in a full-time midfield role with Dangerfield, Duncan and Menegola all missing. Excellent floor in this landscape.
  • Higgins had a few CBA’s last week but (weirdly, given the midfield names missing that I just rattled off) I think he might be needed up forward this weekend. No Danger, no Cameron, no Ablett obviously – the Cats might take a look at their team balance and decide his class up forward is needed more than his accumulatory talents in the midfield.

Brisbane: T Berry IN – K Coleman OUT
Notable outs: Rayner, Cockatoo.

  • A like-for-like in an exchange of brothers, Berry for Coleman.
  • Brisbane aren’t panicking after a surprise loss and are backing in their structures against another contender at 0-1. If that’s the case, McCluggage with a full-time wing gig and Bailey/Berry rotating through a half forward flank is set to continue.

TRENDS

Geelong conceded the least points to Key DEF’s last year.
Geelong conceded the least points to Gen DEF’s last year.
Geelong conceded the least points to Key FWD’s last year.
Geelong conceded the 3rd-least points to Gen FWD’s last year.
Geelong conceded the 2nd-least points to Elite MID’s last year.

Brisbane conceded the 2nd-least points to Key DEF’s last year.
Brisbane conceded the 5th-least points to Gen DEF’s last year.

HISTORY

Hawkins – 110, 124
Selwood – 104, 105
Parfitt – 104, 84
C Guthrie – 68, 108
Menegola – 96, 115 (not playing but shows role)
Stewart – 69, DNP, 93

Neale – 124, 123, 101
Lyons – 78, 105, 126
Zorko – 65, 90, 94
McCluggage – 86, 80, 125

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Brandon Parfitt – F/M – $12,220 DS

So much to love about Parfitt here. Gets big ticks for price and forward eligibility on top of notching the highest score for the Cats with 101 AF last week – despite less inside time than we might have expected. He’ll get that back against the Lions with all the big names (especially Dangerfield’s 74% CBA share) missing and deserves to be highly-owned on a slate that sorely lacks value outside a couple of very obvious options. Parfitt looks good in every game script I can muster in my skull, so don’t be afraid to whack him in your core and build around his selection.

BEST VALUE: Jordan Clark – D/M – $8,340 DS

Clark is in many ways a “cream on top” player at this point in his career with the odd roles he plays for Geelong, so a shock Adelaide onslaught was not ideal scoring conditions for the young Cat. A few injuries ahead of him in the hierarchy and a return to GMHBA Stadium is just what the doctor ordered for a return to his blistering AAMI form of 135 AF in just 66% TOG. Clark maintained his part-time kick-in job last week despite being moved around like an Army child, and I’m excited to see what he can do if Geelong gets the game on their terms.

BEST RUCK: Rhys Stanley – R – $12,140 DS

Flip a coin here between Stanley and McInerney ($12,540 RK), honestly. I’ve picked Stanley because he has the ability to go forward and impact with a couple of sausage rolls, and I think that gives him an edge in ceiling for GPP’s here. Big O as the strictly better tap ruckman probably gets the nod in cash line-ups. Flip!

BEST STAT: Charlie Constable – M – $7,670 DS 

Constable scored 25 AF in just 13% game-time after starting at the medical sub last week, and that follows his 38 AF from 22% in the AAMI. Those games highlight his ability to rack up, and they’re not isolated events – Constable’s scored at roughly a point-per-minute over his short career. 2019 was his best season (scored above 80 in 5/7 games) and finally gets a look at the exact role he’s after with all of Danger, Duncan and Menegola watching from the sidelines. Hulk play if I’ve ever seen one – SMASH. 

BEST RETHINK: Lachie Neale – M – $15,820 DS 

Neale has a horrendous record against the Swans, so I’m happy to write off last week as an outlier. He gets a much better match-up against a depleted Geelong midfield this Friday night; a team that he’s scored 124 and 123 against in his last two, despite the Cats’ recent dominance. Don’t be the guy that knee-jerks on Neale’s exposures after one poor game – he had a few of those last year and still comfortably walked away with a Brownlow.

 

Leave a Comment

Scroll to Top