PORT ADELAIDE vs COLLINGWOOD

Marvel, 7.10pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$1,500 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 3 max)
WEATHER: Roof closed.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.32 favourites, 151.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Port’s inside midfield numbers were jacked in Round 17 due to injury, so the drops at the top end of the table above were just re-stabilising those inflated figures. They spread the load by returning Amon to a hybrid midfield role (+52% CBA share), although it didn’t affect his scoring one bit by posting his second consecutive score in the 130’s. He’s clearly pushed ahead of Boak (70 AF) as the second banana at Port, at least in a fantasy sense and most definitely from a ceiling/GPP perspective. As we talk about almost weekly, Drew (56 AF) suffers without the inside midfield smorgasbord and did so here following a -24% CBA share reduction. In contrast, Lycett was impressive with his 108 AF in a timeshare with Ladhams that restricted him to battling out just 65% of ruck contests. Byrne-Jones enjoyed his first CBA’s since Round 7 with a couple of early cameos, but the key takeaway was a new wing role for the career defender. It didn’t pay off with a 61 AF this week, but it could in future rounds if the role sticks – especially as he didn’t get a full run at it here after being shifted forward in the last quarter to cover the injured Woodcock. His move out of defence granted some freedom to fellow fringe outside players in Bonner (87 AF) and Bergman (46 AF), who both starred across half-back after a season of mixed roles. Houston (56 AF) had his second straight stinker on a wing and now projects significantly better in fantasy with the cheap touches across half back than he does when playing up the field. Frederick (permanent forward) and Mayes (half forward) were the other roles of note with Port skinny on forwards overall, while Aliir was allowed to play his regular intercept defending role following a week of bouncing around the field. 

This was perhaps the most settled that the Pies have been all season, making just the single change as interim coach Robert Harvey stuck fat with the midfield rotations that won them the Richmond clash in Round 17. De Goey is hard to ignore with another big score of 120 AF, thanks to a mid-forward role that not only allows him to rack up the pill over the course of a game, but also play up to 90% of the game with rests up forward. Callum Brown (50 AF) wasn’t as prolific this week with the same midfield opportunity, and unfortunately his run as an inside midfielder has reached its conclusion with a late shoulder dislocation ending his season prematurely. A tasty new role for Ruscoe in defence paid handsome dividends for his eagle-eyed suitors, racking up 23 touches and 77 AF at basement price; a forward role for Murphy paved the way for the switch. Crisp (half back), Noble (defensive wing), Hoskin-Elliott (attacking wing), Bianco (74 AF as the extra defender starting from half forward) and Sidebottom (half forward) were the other roles of interest, while Ollie Henry (76 AF) upswung with 3 goals from a deep forward role.

TEAMSHEETS

Port: Rozee, Duursma, Butters IN – Lienert, Mayes, Frederick OUT
Notable outs: Gray, Fantasia, Farrell, Rockliff.

  • Port finally regains a couple of forwards in Rozee/Butters, with their absences really stretching the structures lately and resulted in some weird roles. They are now much more predictable:
  • Bergman across half-back. Been a much more consistent scorer in this role.
  • Bonner and Houston are technically interchangeable, but Bonner had his best game of the season across half-back last week with Houston on a wing. I expect them to run it back.
  • Byrne-Jones returns to defence with Duursma back in the side (who was extremely busy in his SANFL return with 27 touches and two sausage rolls in limited minutes).
  • Amon to remain in a hybrid midfield role.
  • Drew’s midfield time depends on Butters’ fitness – I’m leaning towards a full workload here for the ginger. As we’ve talked about before, there’s a big difference between 70% inside time and 100% inside time for Drew’s scoring.
  • Lycett was still able to ton up in a 65-35 ruck split with Ladhams last week, but history – both with this pair and in a general sense – says that timeshares are doomed for DFS.

Collingwood: Tohill, Macrae, Ginnivan, Poulter IN – C Brown, Mayne, Thomas, Hoskin-Elliott OUT
Notable outs: Moore, Howe, Mayne, Daicos, Hoskin-Elliott, T Brown, C Brown, Sier, Thomas.

  • Poulter for Hoskin-Elliott, wing L4L.
  • Ginnivan for Thomas, small forward L4L. Has earned his spot with blistering VFL form, averaging 81 AF from 3.7 goals in his last three outings. Careful, though – he scales heavily on goals and has averaged just 46 AF when scoring less than 3 goals this season.
  • Tohill for Mayne in defence. The Irishman averages 62 AF in his last three VFL games as a defender, and is worth a long look in DFS simply because he’ll be a cog (albeit a small one) in the possession-heavy Collingwood backline machine.
  • That leaves Macrae for Cal Brown in the midfield. I have no strong opinions on whether he plays on a wing or in the guts in a vacuum, but given that Crisp has been playing in defense the past fortnight and the Pies are clearly pivoting heavily to their youth, I’m leaning towards a straight swap with Cal Brown for Macrae. That means 65-70% TOG, with a heavy inside midfield slant. Very, very tempting at basement price.
  • Noble on a wing, although could easily feature in a three-way switch to defence with Crisp (guts) and Macrae (wing).
  • De Goey with a 50-50 M/F role again. Opposition sides are yet to solve it.
  • Ruscoe should remain in defence. Will be very chalky after last week’s 77, and Mayne’s resting only increases his upside.

TRENDS

Port has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Port has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Port has conceded the fewest points to GEN FWDs in L5.
Port has conceded the 4th-fewest points to MID’s in L5.

Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY DEFs this year.
Collingwood has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN DEFs this year.
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY FWDs this year.
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-most points to MIDs this year.
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-most points to ELITE MIDs this year.

*** NOTE – all Collingwood trends have significantly improved over L5 ***

HISTORY

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Jordan De Goey – F/M – $13,340 DS

Collingwood has unlocked De Goey’s fantasy game with a simple gambit: getting him involved in the +6 game. The midfielder-forward is averaging 9.2 marks over his last 6 games, which is more than any player in the league has averaged over the season (Rotham is the league-leader with 8.8 per game). I know that’s cherry-picking, but given that 14 of the top 15 ranked players for marks are defenders, it’s quite an extraordinary stat. 

Add disposal totals of 32, 32, 29 and 31 to that incredible mark rate, and it’s hard to deny that De Goey has completed a remarkable transition into one of the more consistent players in the league since the long-awaited role change. In fact, he’s averaged a massive 120.3 AF since Robert Harvey took over as the interim head coach of Collingwood and gave him something he’s needed for the last few seasons – role security. 

BEST VALUE: Finlay Macrae – F/M – $5,000 DS 

Speaking of role, Macrae’s most prevalent usage so far has been as either the medical sub or as a half forward. His career started so brightly with a 54 AF in 33% CBA share on debut, but his dwindling midfield time over the following weeks resulted in scores of 26 (12% CBA) and 36 (0% CBA). Are you sensing a theme here?

He hasn’t had any such midfield barriers in the VFL, averaging 91 AF from 23 touches, 3 marks and 5 tackles at the lower level. The good news here is that I’m projecting him for a significant midfield role on Friday night, and whether that’s on the wing or in the guts, the Macrae gene is simply too predisposed to finding the footy to ignore him at basement price. Lock.

BEST RUCK: Brodie Grundy – R – $15,670 DS

Lycett’s basement score of 80 AF in the past 6 weeks will garner plenty of suitors, but without the proper context – 4 of those were without Ladhams, while the other two was his floor of 80 (against the easiest ruck match-up in Gold Coast back in Round 14), plus last week’s 108 AF (where he upswung with 9 tackles, his season-best tackle haul over his career). Add in the rough Grundy match-up, and my projection for Lycett sits at a figure significantly lower than his recent form.

While Grundy doesn’t possess the same reliability he’s displayed over the past 4-5 seasons – that was evident with last week’s 77 AF against a solo De Koning – he does still have the ceiling with 2 scores of 139+ in his last 6. 

The best part? One of those was against, guess who – Port – back in Round 10.

BEST STAT: John Noble – D – $11,190 DS 

I was slow to cotton on to Noble’s return to a wing role the past fortnight, but I got there eventually. It’s a position that’s resulted in scores of 87 and 112 for the speedster, compared to his previous five scores that all ranged between 65 and 72 AF. I’m happy to buy shares in Noble to see if this wing role continues, especially as he’s had success there in the past.

One parallel is Jack Crisp ($14,870 D/M), if he remains at half-back. I noticed that with Mayne out in Round 12, Crisp played in defence and posted a team-high 113 AF. Extra responsibility and touches back there would keep him in play at a considerable price-tag.

BEST RETHINK: Ollie Wines – M – $17,280 DS 

With chalk plays like Trey Ruscoe ($5,050 D) and Macrae, throwaway basement-priced Pies in
Anton Tohill ($5,000 F) and Jack Ginnivan ($5,000 F/M), cheap Port defenders in
Riley Bonner ($9,480 D/M) and Miles Bergman ($8,160 D/M), and even underpriced midfielders like Dan Houston ($10,690 D/M) and Willem Drew ($10,690 M) – value is not a concern on this slate. When this happens, a player’s ceiling becomes much more crucial than their expected “value”, which is why Wines is still in play despite the outrageous price-tag.

With 3 scores of 140+ in his last 5, Wines’ peak is unrivalled on this slate – which means he still has to feature in your player pool on Friday night.

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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