SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
$500 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, no multi-entry)

 

NORTH MELBOURNE vs ESSENDON

Metricon, 12.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: Essendon $1.28 favourites, 157.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Nothing much changed for a sneakily-improving Roos this week, with Goldstein/Xerri returning to a more reasonable 83/17 ruck split; while Simpkin soaked up a few of LDU’s midfield minutes, but that’s well within weekly fluctuations. We can now look at Thomas (88 AF) as a full-time midfielder with his non-CBA minutes spent up on a wing, while Jaidyn Stephenson’s (150 AF) high half forward role is a thing of beauty. With a license to roam wherever he pleases in that gig – he doesn’t have to be accountable to a wingman or anything droll like that – Sleevo was able to rack up 38 touches, 10 marks and slot a goal. Massive. Phillips snuck a few CBA’s and got involved late, but a lack of midfield time and TOG overall is hurting his DFS prospects badly. Zurhaar’s night could have been even bigger with 2.6 in front of the sticks for his 97 AF – he’s looking close to unstoppable as a forward these days. Ziebell (100 AF) and Hall (92 AF) did well to scrounge together solid scores given the wet and wild conditions at Optus limited their access to cheap +6 combos. McDonald (defensive wingman), Turner (small defender), Taylor (half forward), and Scott (forward pocket) were the other roles of note on a bright day for North’s future. 

 A rough Schoenberg tag brought the Parish train to a screeching halt with 68 AF, although it helped funnel more usage through Merrett, who finished with 115 AF and a perfect 10 Coaches Votes as a result. Will teams bother tagging one when the other just bobs up with a BOG performance moving forward? A couple of niggles and an eventual early shower for Langford weakened Essendon’s already floss-thin midfield group, but Stringer did his job with 88% CBA presence and 99 AF in his beautiful midfield role. I can’t see that changing anytime soon with the big names still on the sideline for the Bombers, either. Perkins (91 AF) upswung with 3 snags and 18 touches from half forward, but he really needs to be included in that midfield group to score and might’ve had a bit of extra love with the Langford injury – he scored 53 of his 91 points in the second half. Heppell’s absence redirected a heap of fantasy goodness amongst the remaining Bombers defenders, with Ridley (100 AF with 75% kick-ins), Redman (99 AF with 25% kick-ins), Hind (112 AF, 10 marks), Laverde (77 AF, 11 marks) and even Cutler (77 AF, 9 marks) getting more involved, although Crows being the opponent does temper some of my lust for this with/without trend. Snelling once again produced a usable DFS score with 88 AF as a high half forward, while Cox finally got moving again with 73 AF in an absolute rout. Consistent roles elsewhere.

TEAMSHEETS

North: Lazzarro IN – Cunnington OUT
Notable outs: Cunnington, Anderson, Polec, Corr. 

  • With Cunnington out, that’s a lot of CBA’s up for grabs. I expect Thomas, Stephenson and Phillips to share those by committee, while LDU is looking at being smashed with 100% inside time. All deserve to be looked at closely on Draftstars with the inside boost.
  • Otherwise, Roos are on a roll and would be crazy to switch things up significantly at this point. You can feel pretty confident in the roles above.

Essendon: Heppell, Durham IN – Gleeson, Langford OUT
Notable outs: Shiel, McGrath, Langford, Caldwell, Zaharakis. 

  • Heppell for Gleeson, half back L4L. Takes away some of the shine off Ridley and Hind, who undoubtedly received a boost with their skipper missing. Likewise, Redman/Cutler get knocked down a peg in priority.
  • Durham for Langford, wing L4L. Averaging 17 touches, 5 marks and 3 tackles in the VFL, the Bombers will need him to play that outside role this week. Should definitely be in your player pool as a basement-priced MID/DEF based on role opportunity alone.
  • Injuries ensure Bombers need to smash Stringer as an inside midfielder again here. Giddy up.
  • Perkins is interesting. Can he soak up some midfield time with Langford joining a raft of big-name Bomber midfielders, or does Durham leapfrog him and leave him stranded across half forward still? Cheap enough to throw a dart at.

TRENDS

North has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to KEY DEFs in L5.
North has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN DEFs in L5.
North has conceded the 4th-fewest points to ELITE MIDs in L5.
North has conceded the 4th-fewest points to MIDs in L5.

Essendon has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Essendon has conceded the most points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Essendon has conceded the fewest points to RUCs in L4 (since Draper returned).

HISTORY

 

 

COLLINGWOOD vs CARLTON

MCG, 3.20pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$12,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 12 degrees and mostly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Collingwood $1.85 favourites, 148.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Studying the form paid big dividends last week, with a VFL role change for Callum Brown translating seamlessly into the senior team. He looked very much up to the level as a pure midfielder, running Collingwood’s old Sier program with a full-time inside midfield role in limited TOG (64%), but that didn’t stop him racking up 24 touches and 82 AF. De Goey showed he can enjoy the best of both worlds in a 50-50 M/F split, notching 117 AF with 29 touches, 10 marks and a goal – the Pies have finally unlocked the right balance for their budding star. The key to squeezing them all in has been Crisp’s switch to a defensive wing role (think how GWS use Whitfield), and another 118 points from him in spite of the role change highlights his flexibility. Mayne was on track for a big score before an ankle issue slowed his output, but he was well-covered by Maynard (89 AF) and Noble (87 AF) in defence during his long spell on the pine. Hoskin-Elliott started on fire in a pure wing role and finished with 26 touches and 79 AF, with Poulter’s axing allowing the role boost. Sidebottom (half forward), Bianco (half forward but sneaking up to defence) and Henry (permanent forward) were the other roles of interest, while medical sub Ruscoe’s new role as a defender (which moved Murphy forward to cover for the injured Kelly) was duly noted. 

A couple of late withdrawals spoiled Carlton’s recent midfield synergy last week, with Setterfield joining the fray as a wingman and roles were adjusted accordingly. It threw Walsh (+32% CBA share) and Ed Curnow back into the guts more often than both the Blues and we would like (+37%), which limited both Dow (-23%) and Kennedy (-27%) to part-time midfield roles. Unsurprisingly, their scoring suffered after a fortnight of elevated output as full-time inside midfielders. Cripps was tagged by O’Connor to just 51 AF to round out a dirty evening for Carlton onballers – outside of Walsh’s monstrous 132 AF, of course. Casboult was one of the late scratches and that left De Koning (91 AF) without any recognised aerial support, with Silvagni leading a rag-tag bunch of above-average-height players forced to do their part. Williams’ (74 AF and 40% of kick-ins) return poisoned Nic Newman’s (74 AF) potent role, who was no longer quarterbacking – he managed just 4 marks and failed to take a single kick-in after a massive 11 marks and 9 kick-ins the week before. Petrevski-Seton as a half forward was the only other questionable role for the Blues, with Williamson coming in as a late inclusion and playing across half back. 

TEAMSHEETS

Collingwood: Ruscoe IN – Kelly OUT
Notable outs: Moore, Howe, Daicos, T Brown, Sier. 

  • This is essentially the structure that the Pies finished with last week, with Ruscoe preferred in defence to Murphy – although I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see that switched, despite the Pies making a big deal about developing Ruscoe in this role in the VFL. They did it to the man he’s replacing in Kelly, after all.
  • After 31 points in just 45% TOG last week, there’s GPP appeal for Ruscoe at basement price if he remains in Collingwood’s sharing-is-caring backline.
  • Callum Brown is looking at another afternoon of full-time inside midfield goodness. Showed last week the $7.2k is too cheap when he’s used this way.
  • Hoskin-Elliott on a wing. Can definitely upswing in this role, as we’ve seen all through 2021.
  • De Goey becoming an elite Cash player was not something I thought I’d be saying in July even as recently as June, but it’s true – $12k is a bargain now that he’s found his groove. 50-50 M/F role beckons again.
  • Mayne holds his spot despite an ankle issue last week. Looms as a must-have in your player pool with the attractive DvP.

Carlton: Jones, Fisher, Cottrell IN – Fogarty, Cripps, Setterfield OUT
Notable outs: Cripps, Docherty, Pittonet, Setterfield. 

  • Cottrell for Setterfield, wing L4L.
  • The rest was hard. Fair bit of guesswork in the above table. Here’s my thinking:
  • Carlton has named 8 defenders (and that’s not even including Petrevski-Seton) and they’ve just lost a full-time midfielder, which suggests a move into the midfield for one of the backmen. Carlton have been saying for a while now that they still want to see what Williams can be an as inside midfielder… what better chance than with Cripps taking a week off?
  • Of course, Carlton has other options. Stocker could move up and play a half forward/guts role (like he did as a once-off a month or so ago), or Curnow could play as a full-time inside MID to replace Cripps’ experience with a further shuffling of magnets.
  • My biggest concern is that Fogarty’s resting leaves Carlton short up forward, especially with Silvagni still needing to cover for Casboult as a back-up ruckman. I’ve solved that in the table above with Newnes sliding down to a half forward role that he has plenty of experience in, but will that be enough to round out the rotations?
  • The bottom line for DFS: will Dow or Kennedy (or both) need to spend more time in attack, as they did last week with stunted output? I can’t guarantee they won’t, so remain balanced with their exposures.

TRENDS

Collingwood has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY DEFs this year (but easing in L5).
Collingwood has conceded the most points to GEN DEFs this year (but easing in L5).
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY FWDs this year (but easing in L5).
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-most points to MIDs this year (but easing in L5).
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-most points to ELITE MIDs this year (but easing in L5).
Collingwood has conceded the fewest points to RUCs in L3 (since Grundy returned).

Carlton has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Carlton has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN FWDs in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

ADELAIDE vs WEST COAST

Adelaide Oval, 4.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 12 degrees and a chance of showers.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.75 favourites, 152.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

We saw the first sign of a reduced role for Rory Sloane here with a -20% CBA share, and he was quoted during the week as expecting that to continue and likely increase moving forward as Adelaide turn their focus to youth. Bigger roles for Schoenberg (+17% TOG) and Berry (+18% CBA presence) were the result, which were predictable given they were the beneficiaries of Sloane’s absences earlier in the season. Schoenberg (83 AF) tagged the red-hot Parish to just 68 AF, which is definitely one to track moving forward. The Crows got absolutely murdered by the Bombers so the magnets were thrown around with reckless abandon, and an early concussion issue for Doedee didn’t help in that regard. Frampton was the tall moved back to cover him and impressed with 11 marks amongst his 77 AF, while Seedsman spent a lot of time across half back after starting on a wing. The medical sub Davis and Berry also spent time in defence, with Murray and Hamill switching forward late. Mackay (pure wing), Sholl (half back) and Jones (half back) were the other roles of note, with Pedlar not given a sniff at the CBA’s this week with a dirty day (17 AF) across half forward.

West Coast are the most systems-based team in the league, rain, hail or shine – and that’s often to their detriment from a weather perspective. Outcome aside, the midfield rotations were exactly as expected – managed TOG for Shuey (71%), Duggan shuffling up to a pure wing role with Gaff while Sheed covered the overlap in a hybrid role, and Naitanui/Allen running an 80/20 split in the ruck. Meanwhile, Hurn remains as safe as houses with 99 AF from another big 80% kick-in share. Sheppard (81 AF, 23 touches) and Rotham (89 AF, 12 marks) both reaching value highlights just how desperate West Coast are to chip the ball around in defence, even in monsoonal conditions. All other roles as expected for the spiraling Eagles, with knee niggles for Yeo and Kelly the only other information nuggets worth mentioning.

TEAMSHEETS

Adelaide: McPherson, Himmelberg, Fogarty, Walker, Lynch IN – Doedee, Frampton, Thilthorpe, Sholl, Pedlar OUT
Notable outs: Crouch, Doedee, Talia, Brown, Sholl. 

  • McPherson for Doedee, lockdown defender L4L.
  • Himmelberg/Walker for Frampton/Thilthorpe, key forward L4L’s. Himmelberg to back-up in the ruck.
  • Crows had an extra defender last week with Hamill a late inclusion, so Sholl’s axing for Fogarty rebalances them.
  • That leaves Lynch for Pedlar in attack, and he’ll likely play his trademarked “link” role across half forward and pushing up the ground.
  • I’m expecting a bump in CBA’s for both Berry and Schoenberg, with Sloane to facilitate that by playing a hybrid midfield role. He played predominantly off a wing for a month last season, so the outside role is by no means foreign to him.
  • Schoenberg likely to tag after the success of a demolition job on Parish last week. Shuey has been the main target for teams this year and can probably expect a shadow on Sunday afternoon.
  • Seedsman secure in his regular wing gig.

West Coast: West, H Edwards, L Edwards IN – Ah Chee, Nelson, Barrass OUT
Notable outs: Redden, Witherden, Vardy.

  • H Edwards for Barrass, lockdown defender L4L.
  • L Edwards for Ah Chee, high half forward L4L.
  • That leaves West (full-time midfielder) for Nelson (defense), with Duggan sliding down to half back to complete the jigsaw.
  • West is an all-round midfielder and will likely share some wing time with Sheed and Gaff in Redden’s usual role. He’s averaged 99 at WAFL level this year, including scores of 118 and 132 amongst his three games since being taken by the Eagles in the mid-season draft. 26 touches, 4 marks and 5 tackles a game is an excellent scoring profile and West should be very popular in DFS on Sunday – for good reason.
  • Business as usual for the remaining Eagles – we know their structures inside and out at this point. Limited TOG for Yeo/Shuey is a given these days with their injury histories, and a knee issue for Kelly midweek might mean he joins the pair.

TRENDS

Adelaide has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the most points to GEN FWDs in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 5th-most points to ELITE MIDs in L5.

West Coast has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEFs this year.
West Coast has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN FWDs in L5.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-most points to ELITE MIDs in L5.
West Coast has conceded the 5th-most points to MIDs in L5.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to RUCs this year.

HISTORY

 

 

GWS vs SYDNEY

Metricon, 6.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 15 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Sydney $1.53 favourites, 148.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Old Man Mumford paid dearly for attempting to run out his first game as a solo ruckman (96% CBA share) in months, with his back locking up and putting him in doubt for the next couple of weeks… but at least he pumped out a handy 91 AF for his suitors on the way out. Ward with back-up ruck duties was interesting to say the least – would GWS be regretting their lack of respect for the ruck position given the close loss to the Suns, who had a key forward in Burgess score 123 fantasy points against them as a makeshift ruckman? There was no change in the midfield rotations outside of that, with Greene’s 4 attendances all last-quarter Hail Mary’s for the Giants as the game slipped from their grasp. Perryman pushing ever so slightly ahead in the kick-ins is worth noting, especially with Cumming’s 54 AF being a season-low; it’s also hard not to notice the scoring drop off for that pair since Ash returned a fortnight ago. A courageous mark with the flight of the ball resulted in a concussion for Whitfield in the second quarter, which brought medical sub Finlayson into the battle and pushed Lloyd (67 AF) up to wing. Ash started alongside Kennedy on the wing but couldn’t get near it and was pushed back into defence in the second half – Sam Reid played forward in the 3rd term before Phil Davis took over in the 4th.

I say it every week, but the lack of injuries for the Swans are keeping their roles as consistent as any other side in the league. Rowbottom’s “managed” now looks more like a soft drop given that he wasn’t straight back into the side and played in VFL instead, with his absence allowing Hewett (67% CBA presence) to remain part of the inside midfield clique. He didn’t have a dedicated tag target this week, instead doing a defensive job on the most dangerous Bulldog at each stoppage. One to track. Jordan Dawson continued his transition to more of a wing role and dominated, kicking 3 goals from 26 touches for 108 AF – this is the best fantasy version of him, so hopefully it continues. Blakey’s reinvention as a half back (as well as McInerney rotating back there) is what has allowed the role change, and the Lizard’s scores of 77 and 79 suggest that he’s taken well to the new position – he’ll be chalk again this week with a $6.8k price-tag. Gulden (high half forward), Bell (half forward) and Wicks (forward pocket) were the other roles of note, while Lloyd enjoyed Dawson’s absence in defence by taking an absurd 92% of kick-ins for a long-awaited 116 AF.

TEAMSHEETS

GWS: Flynn, Coniglio, O’Halloran, Finlayson IN – Hill, Ash, Whitfield, Mumford OUT
Notable outs: Whitfield, Preuss, Flynn, Briggs, de Boer. 

  • Flynn for Mumford, ruckman L4L. Huge DFS appeal as a solo guy.
  • O’Halloran for Hill, small forward L4L.
  • That leaves Coniglio (inside midfielder) and Finlayson (key forward) for wingmen in Ash/Whitfield. We’ll likely see Kelly slide over to more of a hybrid role, while Ward was already playing on the wing following Whitfield’s early concussion last week.
  • Further to that – Ward was playing as a back-up ruckman last week too, but probably gets some relief from that with Finlayson coming in.
  • CBA’s trending down for Tom Green with Coniglio ready for combat.
  • Likewise, Toby Greene unlikely to have the wriggle room to see significant CBA’s cameos now.
  • Cumming and Perryman escape the Ash cockblock. Scoring typically boosts with only two of the trio active, while Whitfield is a loss for his work across half-back as a sweeper, so there could be a few more points to go around there, too.

Sydney: Unchanged
Notable outs: Rowbottom, Reid.

  • Unchanged, so unchanged structure. Dawson and McInerney interchangeable in the table above.
  • I think we’ll see Hewett play as a defensive midfielders at stoppages like he did last week against the Bulldogs, rather than as a dedicated tagger. No team has tagged against the Giants this year, incredibly.
  • Blakey with the juicy half-back role shapes up as big chalk after his last fortnight.
  • Lloyd back in business with a mortgage on the kick-in role last week, but note that he copped a late knee knock against the Doggies and trained away from the main group during the week. Read into that what you will.
  • Hickey back in form with 101, 88 in last two after a knee injury halted his progress mid-year. In play against the inexperienced Flynn.

TRENDS

GWS has conceded the 4th-most points to MIDs in L5.
GWS has conceded the 4th-most points to RUCs this year.

Sydney has conceded the fewest points to KEY DEFs this year.
Sydney has conceded the fewest points to GEN DEFs this year.
Sydney has conceded the 4th-fewest points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 4th-fewest points to GEN FWDs in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 3rd-most points to MIDs in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 4th-most points to ELITE MIDs in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUCs in L5.

HISTORY

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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