SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$50,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings 

 

ESSENDON vs MELBOURNE

Metricon, 2.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 23 degrees and partly cloudy, low chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Melbourne $1.50 favourites, 121.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

We got our first look at the Draper/Phillips timeshare this week, with the junior of the pair on the right side of a 61/39 split. Neither particularly interest me on multi-game slates if they’re sharing time, because neither is a AFL-quality forward in their own right and they have to rotate heavily through the pine. Life without McGrath continues to favour Parish, who hit 79% CBA presence (even if he forgot to score the points that comes with the midfield time). Langford took a leap with his own midfield role, hitting a CBA Rate of 0.54 with the other half of his time spent on a wing. Perhaps the most impressive midfielder didn’t even play midfield at all – Devon Smith top-scored with 100 AF in his juicy half-back role. Cutler and Hibberd joined Langford in that wing rotation, with Dylan Clarke losing his part-time midfield minutes and was stranded on a HFF. Stewart swung back into defence with both Hooker and Hurley missing, and his DFS floor is much better behind the footy.

Not usually a team to mess with their rotations, Melbourne’s 33% CBA reduction for Petracca was somewhat surprising, especially given the season-ending injury to Brayshaw leaving them short-handed on the inside. It was great news for Melksham (HFF) and vandenBerg (wing) however, with both hovering around the 0.60 CBA Rate mark. No tagging jon for Melksham despite his solid effort on Fyfe in Round 16, but it remains in play against the Bombers. Langdon dominated out in the space of his own wing as per usual, joined by Baker and vandenBerg in the outside rotation. Other options in Tomlinson (key defender) and Neal-Bullen (HFF) missed out and their scoring suffered accordingly. Salem (91 AF) had an interesting game with a move up to the wing at half-time resulting in a 49-point second half, with Mitch Brown covering his spot in defence. Hunt (HFF), Smith (back pocket) and Rivers (HBF) were the other roles of note.

TEAMSHEETS

Essendon: STAY TUNED FOR FINAL SQUADS

Notable outs: McGrath, Hooker, Heppell, Zaharakis. 

Melbourne: STAY TUNED FOR FINAL SQUADS

Notable outs: Brayshaw, Jones.

TRENDS

Essendon conceded the 4th-most points to KEY DEF’s over the L5 (+5.9)
Essendon conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s over the L5 (+5.9)
Essendon conceded the most points to RUC’s this year (+11.8)

Melbourne conceded the 2nd-least points to KEY FWD’s over the L5 (-4.6)
Melbourne conceded the 5th-least points to GEN FWD’s over the L5 (+0.8)
Melbourne conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s over the L5 (+12.8)

HISTORY

Merrett 95, 121, 108 (tagged by Harmes in the first half)
Shiel – 109
Smith101, 101 (hybrid HFF roles)
Parish95, 92 (midfield roles)
Hurley – 62, 90, 108 (13 marks)

Gawn – 107, 135
Oilver – 82, 78, 107
Viney – 81

 

ADELAIDE vs RICHMOND

Adelaide Oval, 5.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 30 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and easing showers.
BOOKIES: Richmond $1.24 favourites, 116.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Another week of Adelaide rolling out their best midfield and another win as a just reward. Laird with the most CBA’s is huge for his role security as there’s always the looming threat of a move back to defense, but he’s almost first picked in the guts for the Crows these days. A team-high 92 AF only strengthens that notion. Gibbs’ farewell game went about as well as can be expected, racking up 27 touches and 90 AF in a half-back role. His inclusion shifted Sholl up to a wing and he dominated with the extra proximity to the footy, scoring 89 AF with a couple of snags. Keays (full-time) and Schoenberg (part-time with HFF) joined him in the wing rotation while Brodie Smith marshalled traffic in defence. Lynch’s heat map looks very suggestive of a wing role, but it was just his classic high half-forward role bearing fruit up the ground. Frampton has ruck chops but hasn’t been used in that role by the Crows this year, playing as a full-time forward here with Himmelberg the chop-out forward instead.

An early knee injury to Soldo sparked Nankervis into classic mode, brute forcing his way to 79 AF with his highest ruckshare since Round 4. Richmond’s CBA core remained largely the same, with the only significant change being Jack Ross (64% presence) leapfrogging Dow (omitted) and Graham (wing) at the coalface. McIntosh and Pickett rounded out the wing rotation with Lambert curiously confined to a HFF. A hamstring strain ended Lynch’s day early, and I can’t help but notice that Riewoldt pumped out a 42-point second half with 3 goals as the big banana while the former Sun iced his thigh on the sidelines.

TEAMSHEETS

Adelaide: STAY TUNED FOR FINAL SQUADS

Notable outs: Milera, Doedee. 

Richmond: STAY TUNED FOR FINAL SQUADS

Notable outs: Soldo, Lynch, Prestia, Astbury. 

TRENDS

Adelaide conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s over the L5 (+12.7)
Adelaide conceded the most points to MID’s over the L5 (+13.0)
Adelaide conceded the most points to RUC’s over the L5 (+17.7)

Richmond conceded the least points to KEY DEF’s over the L5 (-10.8)
Richmond conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEF’s over the L5 (+12.4)
Richmond conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY FWD’s over the L5 (-3.3)
Richmond conceded the 3rd-most points to RUC’s over the L5 (+12.0)

HISTORY

O’Brien 146 (versus Chol and Balta)
B Crouch – 129, DNP, DNP
M Crouch – 101, 117, INJ
Sloane – 109, 111, 115
Laird 116, 110, 141 (HBF roles)

Martin140, 114, 119 (highest scorer for Richmond in all 3 games)
Graham101 (full-time midfielder with Cotchin, Lambert missing)
Houli – 88, DNP
Cotchin – DNP, 103, 76
Nankervis – DNP, 90, 98 (solo ruck)

 

BRISBANE vs CARLTON

Gabba, 7.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$20,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 40 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and mostly cloudy, small chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Brisbane $1.18 favourites, 117.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Brisbane didn’t get out of 2nd gear in this one, with both Zorko (shocker) and Neale (Ryan Clarke tag) seemingly not fussed about touching the footy. The TOG drops in the table above are organic rather than concerning, with the minutes across the board returning to normal after 2 early injuries in Round 16 boosted them to unrealistic levels. Berry was replaced in the midfield by Ellis-Yolmen rotation, with the former Crow picking up where Berry left off with half his time spent up forward. McCluggage had some cameos but was predominantly on the wing, with Robinson (defensive side) and Hinge joining him in the rotation – Zac Bailey was marooned on a HFF this week. I had some concerns about a McInerney/Archie timeshare in the ruck and despite a 60/40 split, Big O was able to return value with an 83-point total. Coleman (HFF), Lester (HBF), Ah Chee (HBF), and Payne (key defender) were the other roles of note.

The big news from Carlton’s CBA list was the reintegration of Walsh into the guts after spending most of 2020 languishing out on a wing – Round 17’s 64% presence absolutely dwarfed his previous best (30%) set the week before. Scores of 114 and 95 have followed, so it’s almost like he should have been playing there the whole time? Setterfield (-34%) was the other side of the coin moving out to more of a wing role, but still found ways to get involved (9 tackles) for his 93 AF. Pittonet’s continued absence ensured De Koning solo ruck role, but it’s the increased output of Casboult (88 and 75) with his 30% ruckshare that tickles my fancy the most. Murphy, Cunningham and Gibbons all saw their fair shares of wing time in a deep HFF rotation, but O’Brien not so much in limited TOG. Fisher (forward pocket) joined Docherty (calf) on the injury list, with Newnes covering his skipper in defence.

TEAMSHEETS

Brisbane: STAY TUNED FOR FINAL SQUADS

Notable outs: Andrews, Berry. 

Carlton: STAY TUNED FOR FINAL SQUADS

Notable outs: Docherty, Fisher, Marchbank, Pittonet. 

TRENDS

Brisbane conceded the 3rd-least points to GEN DEF’s this year (+2.5)
Brisbane conceded the 4th-least points to RUC’s this year (-0.7)

Carlton conceded the most points to GEN DEF’s over the L5 (+14.4)
Carlton conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN FWD’s over the L5 (+11.5)
Carlton conceded the least points to MID’s over the L5 (-4.0)

HISTORY

Neale 104 (tagged by Curnow after a 90-point first half)
Zorko – 80, 114, 119 (tagged by Curnow in the first half then freed up)
McCluggage – 99, 91
Rich – 83, 109, 85

Cripps – 151, 96, DNP (tagged by Berry)
Walsh – 137
E Curnow121, 61, DNP (tagged Zorko for half, then Neale for a half the next game)

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