SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$750 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, no multi-entry)

 

ST KILDA vs PORT ADELAIDE

Marvel, 1.45pm

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: Roof closed.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.88 favourites, 148.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

No huge surprises with St Kilda’s recovering midfield this week, with Zak Jones (75 AF) stepping straight back into the midfield with 87% of his limited game-time spent as an inside midfielder. This was at the expense of Byrnes (0%), who played exclusively across half forward and kicked 2 snags amongst 75 fantasy points of his own. The wing rotation also remained the same with Ross/McKenzie the full-timers, although Billings was able to upswing with 100 AF in a half forward/wing overlap gig – this is your weekly reminder that his output will increase once his troublesome knee is back to full fitness. Long upswung with 97 AF in a forward role, likely due to stepping into Higgins’ vacated half forward role rather than starving deep in a pocket. One to track if Higgins is out again this weekend. Hill continues to rack up the touches with 25 across half back, and he even took the majority of the kick-ins this week (even if it was just by a sliver). I expect him to fill this role for the remainder of the season, injuries permitting. Highmore was utilised as an interceptor once again and is growing into the role – his 73 AF might have been closer to a ton with a better DvP match-up than the brutal Lions. Kent (half forward) and Connolly (half back) were the other roles of note, while it was business as usual for Ryder/Marshall with a typical 60/40 ruck split.

The Power have been weak on the outside for the last few weeks now, so Amon returned to a pure wing as still scored 130 AF – this is an excellent sign that he could break from the mould of midfielders that need CBA’s to score. In stark contrast, Drew picked up the slack on the inside and the return to a full serving of CBA’s resulted in another handy DFS score of 87 AF. Wines was tagged by Viney, so hitting 105 AF with a shadow is actually a reinforcement of his current hot form, rather than the easing of it. Injuries to Butters (knee) and Burton (groin) were late enough so as not to affect the structures, so injury wasn’t responsible for Aliir’s unusual night. He spent time in defence, up forward and as a back-up ruckman to earn the ‘utility’ badge, with the change-up allowing Bergman (60 AF) to slide into a back flank rather than playing that awkward high half forward role. Houston (57 AF) remained on the wing and hit his floor – we’ve seen a couple of duds from him when playing on the outside this year, as he loses the security of the cheap pill in defence. Mayes (41 AF) continued to be hemmed into a forward role that he’s not particularly suited to with all of Gray/Fantasia/Farrell out, so take care with his exposures given the feast-or-famine nature of his current role. 

TEAMSHEETS

St Kilda: Unchanged
Notable outs: Hannebery, H Clark, Bytel, Coffield, Geary. 

  • After last week, St Kilda would be silly to change a thing. Key takeaways:
  • Jones still building fitness in his inside midfield role, but he’s always been a big PPM guy. Very much in play at his $11.8k price-tag.
  • Billings to be nursed into what boils down to a high half forward role essentially. Can’t rely on him in Cash, but still has the ceiling for GPP consideration, especially if you’re buying into St Kilda stacks.
  • Long played across half forward with Higgins missing last week and hit 97 AF. Worth a few darts at $6.8k to see if it continues.
  • Byrnes hard to consider on a multi-game slate when he’s out of CBA consideration.
  • Saints are using Highmore as a genuine interceptor now. GPP appeal at $8k.
  • Steele is a ridiculously good looking unit.

Port: Ladhams, Bonner, Woodcock, Frederick IN – Rozee, Motlop, Clurey, Butters OUT
Notable outs: Butters, Duursma, Rozee, Burton, Fantasia, Gray. 

  • Fredrick for Clurey, lockdown defender L4L.
  • Woodcock for Motlop, small forward L4L.
  • Ladhams for Rozee up forward, with Port upgrading height-wise up forward with a dedicated back-up ruck.
  • Means that Aliir’s utility silliness from last weekend won’t be required – he’ll play as an interceptor as per usual. Bergman moving to a high half forward role is the next domino to fall, and his scoring has been very sporadic in that position so far.
  • That leaves Bonner (wing) for Butters (half forward/guts rotation). Amon sliding back into a hybrid midfield role completes that transaction.
  • That’s a lot of changes to swallow, but what do we like? Drew with a full-time guts workload is very attractive – he rarely lets us down when he gets the CBA’s. I’m patiently waiting for Bonner to finally put it together on a wing, too.
  • Powell-Pepper and Mayes playing heavy forward minutes to cover Butters/Rozee/Fantasia/Gray/Farrell is something we don’t like, however. Lycett and Ladhams in a ruck timeshare can get in the bin too.

TRENDS

St Kilda has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to KEY FWDs in L5.
St Kilda has conceded the 5th-fewest points to GEN FWDs in L5.
St Kilda has conceded the 4th-fewest points to MIDs in L5.
St Kilda has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to RUCs in L5.

Port has conceded the fewest points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Port has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Port has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Port has conceded the fewest points to GEN FWDs in L5.
Port has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to MIDs in L5.
Port has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to ELITE MIDs in L5.

Port has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to RUCs in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

GOLD COAST vs WESTERN BULLDOGS

Metricon, 4.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: Bulldogs $1.24 favourites, 150.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

An early knee injury to Greenwood put the handbrake on any expected midfield shifts, with the Suns forced to make do with the onball rotations that they won against the Tigers with in Round 16 (with a little more Swallow and a little less Flanders). That meant another game as full-time inside midfielder for Fiorini, who added to last week’s 101 AF with a juicy 113. As I said last week, he’s simply too good at finding the footy to be ignored in DFS when he’s getting a full midfield workload. Rowell was the only lowlight in an otherwise fully-firing Gold Coast midfield, winning just 7 touches despite adequate KPI’s. It might be time to stop thinking about him as a DFS option until we see something that suggests otherwise. Burgess’ (123 AF) emergence as a ruckman the past fortnight has been incredible, and the Suns have to be feeling a little sheepish about how they refused to give him an actual crack at the solo ruck gig earlier in the season by handcuffing him in a timeshare with Graham. His stocks continue to rise, given that he’s keeping Zac Smith in the VFL currently and an easy DvP match-up against Tim English beckons this weekend. Holman, despite the 92-point score suggesting a move into the midfield for the injured Greenwood, was still across half forward and upswung mainly with the 12 tackles. Consistent roles elsewhere, with Lukosius/Bowes both still in defence, Ellis/Sharp the main men on the wings, Ainsworth across half forward and the medical sub Atkins was once again invisible with a half forward gig. 

While the Bulldogs’ midfield group remains stable, the splits of Bailey Smith (-25% CBA presence) and Caleb Daniel (+19%) continue to evolve week-to-week. Bevo obviously wasn’t happy with how his planned structures were working because defender Lewis Young was once again sent forward to compete as a key forward/back-up ruckman in the 2nd quarter, which pushed Caleb Daniel (30 touches 99 AF) back to a familiar half-back role. English was back to his best this week with the solo ruck role, finishing with a flurry to hit 127 AF on the back of 8 marks, 6 tackles and more disposals (22) than hitouts (21). His upside is huge when you add the hitouts of a modest ruckman to the typical midfielder numbers he can regenerate along the way. Ed Richards (half back), Hunter (pure wing), Garcia (half forward) and Scott (forward pocket) were the other roles of note.

TEAMSHEETS

Gold Coast: Graham, Corbett, Anderson IN – Greenwood, Markov, Day OUT
Notable outs: Greenwood, Weller, Z Smith, Markov. 

  • Graham for Markov in the backline. Opens up an intercepting gig, which Lukosius or Bowes could easily fill if Suns want to go that way, but plenty of teams go without it.
  • Corbett for Day, key forward and back-up ruckman L4L.
  • Anderson for Greenwood in the midfield. Will join Swallow as a hybrid midfielder resting across half forward – I think the Suns like Sharp as a pure wingman, and want to persist with Fiorini as a pure inside midfielder.
  • Rowell had a small drop off in CBA’s last week, even with Greenwood injury very early – we might not see him as a full-time bull moving forward (and his results certainly haven’t justified it thus far). Trending down in DFS, sadly.
  • Flanders will struggle to see more than a couple of CBA cameos here.
  • Burgess as solo a ruckman as you can get, and has the delicious English match-up ahead of him. Will be very popular, and this is chalk you sit down and eat with a knife and fork.

Bulldogs: Naughton, Crozier, Dunkley, R Smith, McNeil IN – Scott, Young, Hannan, Wallis, Liberatore OUT
Notable outs: Treloar, Liberatore, Martin, Sweet. 

  • Naughton replaces Wallis, with Bruce to assume back-up ruck duties. Means that Ugle-Hagan retains his spot despite the quiet debut last weekend. Still not interested in him in DFS, though.
  • Crozier replaces Lewis Young in defence effectively, which means that Caleb Daniel can return to wing (as he had to cover Young when he was moved forward in-game last week).
  • Dunkley for Liberatore, inside midfielder L4L, although we can expect him to play limited TOG and potentially stints across half forward with his match fitness a work-in-progress. Excellent new for Bailey Smith, who I can’t see playing anywhere but in the guts with Libba rested.
  • R Smith replaces Hannan, half forward/wing overlap L4L. GPP upside in this role.
  • McNeil replaces Scott, small forward L4L.
  • Ed Richards across half back, Hunter as a pure wingman and English as a solo ruckman are the other takeaways from the raft of changes for the Doggies, with Dale also receiving some role separation from fellow distributor Daniel, who should play as a full-time midfielder here.

TRENDS

Gold Coast has conceded the most points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN FWDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the 2nd-most points to MIDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the 2nd-most points to ELITE MIDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to RUCs this year.

Bulldogs have conceded the most points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the fewest points to MIDs this year (but easing in L5).
Bulldogs have conceded the fewest points to ELITE MIDs this year (but easing in L5).
Bulldogs have conceded the 4th-most points to RUCs this year.

HISTORY

 

 

MELBOURNE vs HAWTHORN

MCG, 7.25pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 11 degrees and showers.
BOOKIES: Melbourne $1.07 favourites, 147.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

We had a significant unforced change to Melbourne’s midfield rotations for perhaps the first time this season, which is probably to be expected given their small slide with 2 losses in 3 weeks. Viney (81 AF) was given easily his biggest serving of CBA’s for the season, which was necessary for his tagging role on Wines (105 AF) more than anything won through form offensively. Incredibly, Petracca attended every single CBA in his 91% game-time, which helps explain his career-high 153, but there was a lot of Stringer/De Goey/Dusty about how he pushed forward after the clearances. Harmes (62 AF) copped the rough end of the stick of the above in a CBA sense with a season-low 18% CBA presence, but was at least able to soak up the midfield time attached to some of Petracca’s hollow CBA’s amidst the shift in dynamic. Jordon covered the wing excess from Langdon/Brayshaw, and 76 AF is a solid effort given his continued limited TOG and the fringe role. Ben Brown returned and although he didn’t do squat with a goalless 55 AF, it could be a blessing for Tom McDonald with less defensive attention – he was able to upswing with 3 snags and 100 AF against an accomplished Port defense. Gawn/Jackson returned to a more reasonable 70/30 split in the ruck, which is a good sign for Max moving forward – hopefully he can improve his ceiling after scoring 120+ just once in his past 11 starts.

The potential soft-drop of Jai Newcombe opened up a raft of CBA’s for Hawthorn, but I can honestly say that I did not expect Conor Nash (61 AF) to receive 6 of those. The fringe Hawk has been playing as an onballer at VFL level (he scored 114 AF from 28 touches and 6 tackles in his most outing for Box Hill) and finally got his chance for a few midfield nibbles in the AFL – one to track ahead of Hawthorn’s changes this week. A late withdrawal from designated kicker Hardwick put their defense under the pump before the game even started, but an early injury to Scrimshaw (neck) and a later one to Jiath (knee) cranked up the pressure back there. Bramble was an unexpected savior for the Hawks, switching into defense and even taking a few kick-ins to post a career-high 99 AF. His composure was a feature and I can see him remaining down there in future weeks if required. Shiels (hybrid midfielder), Phillips/Howe (pure wing), Greaves (half back) and the medical sub Hanrahan (small forward) were the other roles of note.

TEAMSHEETS

Melbourne: Unchanged
Notable outs: Nil. 

  • Melbourne’s structure basically comes down to whether they tag Mitchell with Viney or not. If they do, you can just copy-paste last weeks roles (see above in the CBAs & Roles section).
  • Otherwise, it’s back to their standard structure from Round 16. Viney/Harmes/Jordon sit in a fringe midfield bottleneck behind the settled Langdon/Brayshaw on the outside and Oliver/Petracca on the inside.
  • Really like McDonald as a GPP pick on this slate. Ben Brown adds another key defender for Hawthorn to deal with, whose backline has been decimated (and already has to carry Hartigan each week) on top of their already-delightful DvP for key forwards.
  • Hawks are going in tall up forward, which counter-intuitively has me looking at May more than usual. Hawthorn are going to be kicking it in long and high to “suit” their key forwards, but honestly, that just works to the advantage of May/Lever types even more.
  • I’m still gun-shy on Gawn at $15.2k on a multi-game slate. This timeshare with Jackson has really gutted his ceiling, and there’s definitely better value options on offer.

Hawthorn: Reeves, Lewis, O’Brien IN – Ceglar, Jiath, Scrimshaw OUT
Notable outs: Wingard, Scrimshaw, Jiath, Impey, Day, Hardwick, Ceglar.

  • Reeves for Ceglar, #1 ruckman L4L. Clarko has already declared Reeves will get first crack at a tough Gawn match-up, but he’s still cheap enough at $8.2k to swim against the tide of that DvP on his day. Has shown he’s a fantasy type in his two games thus far. 
  • O’Brien for Jiath, lockdown defender L4L.
  • Lewis (forward) for Scrimshaw (defender), which officially unlocks a backline role for Bramble. Will be a popular salary-saver in the MID slot, and for good reason – he looked awesome last week back there.
  • Door wide open for an attacking/intercepting role for Grainger-Barras with Scrimshaw/Jiath out. GPP upside at base price.
  • Likewise for Greaves at $8.6k with a distributing role as Hardwick remains on the sidelines. 80 AF from 20 touches last week.
  • No change to the midfield group suggests we might see Nash with another midfield taster. At $5.8k as a FWD, there’s no downside in taking a punt here. Those VFL numbers are juicy.

TRENDS

Melbourne has conceded the fewest points to KEY FWDs this year.
Melbourne has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN FWDs in L5.
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to ELITE MIDs in L5.
Melbourne has conceded the fewest points to RUCs this year.

Hawthorn has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Hawthorn has conceded the 5th-most points to MIDs in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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