FREMANTLE vs GEELONG
Optus Stadium, 8.10pm AEST
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
$1,000 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 2 max)
WEATHER: 14 degrees and mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Geelong $1.61 favourites, 150.5 over/under.
CBA’s & ROLES
The Dockers dealt exclusively in tweaks this week, dumping the wingman in Bewley and casting Cerra/Brayshaw as hybrid midfielders to cover that outside time as expected. Serong was able to return to full-time inside midfield duties as a result, scoring his first ton since Round 6 – he’s significantly more attractive in DFS when the Dockers run a 6-man midfield as they did here. Fremantle cashed in on one of the most potent DvP trends with their forwards up against the Hawks; Lobb (99 AF from 4.3) and Treacy (86 AF from 2.2) smashed value, and they even played Walters into (relative) form with 21 touches and 72 AF. They won’t have it so easy against the gold standard backline from Geelong. Banfield played across half forward as the only inclusion, upswinging with 3 goals for his 70 AF. Consistent roles elsewhere, with Darcy once again performing a masterclass with 9 marks and 122 AF against an accomplished duo in Ceglar/McEvoy – he should have no trouble against whatever abomination Geelong throws his way in the ruck.
I predicted 80% midfield time for Danger amidst the changes (O’Connor in, Selwood/Narkle out, and he didn’t do me dirty with 79% inside time. With the recently re-signed Selwood set to return this week and Cameron out in the medium-term with that hamstring strain, that percentage looks like dropping again with more time up forward in Round 18. I found it interesting that O’Connor took the easy route in tagging a sore Cripps (51 AF) over a red-hot Walsh (132 AF). Guthrie increased his midfield time (+31% CBA share) and output (101 AF) to soothe my fears of playing sore, but his lack of ceiling without fellow accumulator Duncan to share it back and forth between themselves is concerning. We didn’t have any surprises in the ruck with Ratugolea doing his best Jeremy Cameron impersonation as a key forward and Stanley taking the #1 mantle. Blicavs covered him from defence, which was made possible by the sneaky usage of Tuohy, who again started across half forward and pushed back as the extra man to free him up. Higgins was the second-best scorer from Geelong with 102 AF and it was no coincidence that he did so with a wing role, with Holmes playing up forward instead of the veteran to allow the role boost.
Fremantle: Hughes IN – Walker OUT
Notable outs: Hamling, Cox, Chapman, Young, Taberner.
- No structural change with Hughes for Walker in defence, although Tucker should have a more fantasy-friendly (or at least attacking) role with Hughes better suited to playing tall.
- No change in the midfield, which means Serong should see his plate heaped with another full-time midfield meal. Cerra/Brayshaw almost interchangeable in hybrid midfield roles.
- Colyer looks to be the most “high” half forward of a group of 6 smalls in attack… not that it helps his scoring. Banfield played deeper than I expected last week and won’t snag 3 goals every game.
Geelong: Selwood, Dahlhaus, Narkle IN – Rohan, Henderson, Holmes OUT
Notable outs: Duncan, Cameron, Rohan, Henderson.
- Dahlhaus for Rohan, permanent forward L4L.
- Selwood (guts) for Henderson (defender), which sends O’Connor back to defence.
- Narkle for Holmes, midfielder-forward L4L.
- Sparkle will play a heavier inside split than Holmes did though, and with another tall in Rohan joining Jeremy Cameron on the sidelines, Dangerfield might have to play more of a 50-50 M/F split this week. As we’ve seen all year, even that half a game out of the midfield massively kneecaps both his ceiling and floor.
- Whatever Danger does will affect Higgins heavily. If Danger is smashed as a midfielder, Higgins will have no choice but to be anchored forward. However, if Danger spends significant time up forward, there’s leftover wing time from Smith/Menegola that Higgins can step up into, as he did in Round 17 with a 102 AF.
- I don’t expect anything to change in the ruck (outside of a classic Geelong late withdrawal, of course); Ratugolea a full-time key forward with Stanley the main man, Blicavs to cover the leftover ruck time with Tuohy playing the extra man in defence from a wing/HFF starting position.
- Take care on your exposures to the Geelong midfield, as the last time they ran this structure (Round 16), all of Guthrie, Selwood, Parfitt and Narkle played less than 66% game-time. To me, that’s not sustainable – and part of why I think Danger might have to play more forward, along with the loss of Cameron/Rohan – but it’s worth mentioning. Hard to hit ceiling in such reduced TOG.
Fremantle has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the fewest points to MIDs in L5.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY DEFs this year.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN DEFs this year.
Geelong has conceded the fewest points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Geelong has conceded the 5th-fewest points to MIDs in L5.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to RUCs this year (but weakening in last 3).
BEST PICK: Cam Guthrie – M – $15,260 DS
Guthrie getting back to his normal numbers in terms of both game-time (79%) and CBA’s (83%) last week has me excited to jump back on board the frills-free accumulator. His recent scoring graph doesn’t appeal to the eye and he looks overpriced at first glance; but when you take out his injury-affected games (and the first game back from injury where his TOG was down), his last 5 scores look like 101, 112, 138, 139 and 118.
Hopefully this slips through the keeper of the masses, and you can sit healthily above the field with Guthrie’s massive upside in your back pocket – upside that he flashed with a game-high 129 AF in the clash between these two sides in 2020.
BEST VALUE: Caleb Serong – M – $10,370 DS
As I alluded to above, I’m much more into Serong’s services when Fremantle runs with this 6-man midfield and that’s what they’ll roll with against the Cats. In fact, his last 3 scores when one of Fyfe or Bewley misses – either giving him more CBA’s outright, or getting them indirectly with Cerra/Brayshaw sliding to a wing – reads 84, 88 and 100.
Value is hard to come by on this slate so I’ll be looking to Serong often as a salary saver on Thursday night, despite the rough MIDs match-up against the Cats – he did score 123 AF against them in his debut season, after all.
BEST RUCK: Rhys Stanley – R – $10,670 DS
While I absolutely love what Darcy ($14,540) is doing at the moment, that price-tag is starting to reach similarly lofty heights to his media attention over the past week or so, so it might be time to pivot to a less popular option in GPP’s.
Stanley is that man. He’s pretty safe for a 65 here with obvious room to grow, and a 90 – which he has achieved in 2 of his last 5 starts – would make it very hard for Darcy to outvalue him, no matter how well he’s going.
BEST STAT: Zach Tuohy – D – $12,780 DS
The last two games where Tuohy has played this unique half forward/spare man in defense role – ie, the last two times where Stanley, Ratugolea and Blicavs have played together – the Irishman has scored 109 and 99. Without a dedicated man to defend, Tuohy has full rein to do whatever he pleases. Lately, that’s been kicking goals while also taking his share of the kick-outs.
One of my favourite Cash plays of 2021, and now he gets some GPP love with a move up the ground.
BEST RETHINK: Tom Stewart – D – $14,000 DS
Stewart has reeled in hauls of 12 and 13 marks the past fortnight…. for scores of just 107 and 110. I’ve talked about the Geelong General in defence on this topic many times this year, but I have to really ram this point home – $14k is simply too much for someone with a 115-point glass ceiling in a GPP.
Stewart is rolled gold in a cash/H2H line-up, but his complete lack of ceiling means you’re better off looking for the right combination of cheap defenders – especially with Fremantle’s favourable DvP back there!
Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.