COLLINGWOOD vs PORT ADELAIDE

Gabba, 7.15pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$50,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
$4,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 11 max)
WEATHER: 22 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.60 favourites, 113.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

All eyes were on Collingwood’s midfield mix with Treloar back in the fray and the good news is that all the heavy hitters (Pendles, Elliott and Adams) retained their minutes. The news wasn’t so hot for Greenwood, who was shunted into a HFF role and lost all of his 53% CBA presence. The axing of Stephenson forced Hoskin-Elliott into a forward role after he was just starting to get comfortable on a wing, but luckily upswung with 75 AF as a popular DFS option. Tyler Brown happily soaked up that wing time, with Daicos on the opposite side and Greenwood/Cal Brown filling the overflow.  De Goey remained a full-time forward and was an absolute force, kicking 4.2 and looked like Collingwood’s first, second and third option going into attack. Varcoe played a small forward role with the back 7 already set. 

The return of party boy Ladhams resulted in the biggest CBA swing this week – he filled a key forward role primarily but he still capped the ruck time of Lycett to 64%, his lowest ruckshare since Round 12. Port took the opportunity to actively rest Robbie Gray against the rabble that is Essendon, posting his lowest CBA share (26%) since Round 7 and his score of 55 AF reflected that. Powell-Pepper (+18%) was glad for any excuse for a few extra on-ball minutes. Houston (85 AF) enjoyed the DEF’s vs Bombers trend, as did Byrne-Jones (83 AF) and Bonner (77 AF). Sitting atop the AFL ladder has its perks and one of those is consistency – all other roles as per usual.

TEAMSHEETS

Collingwood: Stephenson IN – C Brown OUT

  • Stephenson replaces C Brown in attack, but will likely play more of that true full forward role out of the square. 
  • That change frees Hoskin-Elliott to move up to a wing, with Tyler Brown living on stolen time in that role as stuffing all of WHE, Stephenson and De Goey up forward feels like a “too many cooks in the kitchen” scenario.
  • No midfield change means we’ll likely see the tight core of Adams, Pendles Treloar and Elliott rotating through those 3 midfield slots all day. 
  • Greenwood resumes in his HFF role and will have to make the most of the wing scraps. 

Notable outs: Howe, Mayne, Phillips, Sier, Sidebottom.

Port: Woodcock, Lienert IN – Farrell, Clurey OUT

  • Woodcock replaces Farrell, small forward L4L.
  • Lienert replaces Clurey, key defender L4L.
  • As I mentioned above, consistency is the privilege of the ladder leaders and these changes strongly suggest that they’ll stick to their winning formula.
  • Expect Robbie Gray to return to his standard 50-ish% CBA role here after having his rest last week. 

Notable outs: Burton, Butters.

TRENDS

Collingwood conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN DEF’s over L5 (+14.1)
Collingwood conceded the 2nd-least points to KEY FWD’s over L5 (-5.8)
Collingwood conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN FWD’s over L5 (+8.8)
Collingwood conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s over L5 (+12.6)

Port conceded the 3rd-least points to GEN FWD’s over L5 (+0.5)
Port conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s this year (-1.5)

HISTORY

Sidebottom – 128, 119, 113 (not playing but including for context)
Pendlebury – 126, 89, DNP
Adams – INJ, 124, 128
Treloar – 120, DNP, 107
Elliott109, DNP, 63 (permanent forward)
Crisp – 103, 73, 124
Grundy – 99, 147, DNP

Boak – 108, 103, 83
Wines – 98, 93, 83
Rockliff 69, 65 (midfield roles)

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Tom Rockliff – M – $15,990 DS

It’s hard to go past the Fantasy Pig after back-to-back 122’s. I’m not worried about his last couple of scores (69 and 65) against the Pies – we all know the Rocky is a form/confidence player and he’s in the zone right now. GPP’s are where he thrives, with 6 scores over 100 this season – only Neale and Gawn have produced more. The Pies have conceded a bunch of points to MID’s lately so that only adds to his appeal.

BEST VALUE: Will Hoskin-Elliott – F – $9,990 DS

A four-figure price-tag is simply too cheap for what WHE can produce, and honestly, what he’s already producing with his 69-point average over the past month’s action. I’m predicting that Stephenson’s inclusion frees him up to return to a wing post where he does his best work; especially with Collingwood’s dearth of outside players with Sidebottom, Phillips and Mayne all missing. 

Brown ($6,720) is worth a look in the event that I’m wrong and WHE remains up forward, as Tyler would retain his wing role from last week (where he scored a season-high 58 AF). This is definitely a scenario where you can hedge by having them in different line-ups throughout your entries, to make sure you remain exposed to conflicting outcomes.

BEST RUCK: Brodie Grundy – R – $15,190 DS

I’m not particularly interested in either Lycett or Ladhams after they managed just 68 and 48 in their timeshare against a brittle Essendon ruck brigade, especially with a much-tougher Grundy match-up looming.

So Grundy it is, as $15k is still too cheap for someone of his quality – even if his elite ceiling has been missing for most of season 2020. 99 and 147 in his last two against Port is a tick, as is his lowest score of 71 in his last 8 outings. It’s not sexy, but it’s the clear cash play on this slate and you’ll want to stretch the salary cap as much as possible to fit him in GPP’s, too.

Cox at $6,540 is the intriguing play, especially after his slate-winning 60 AF last week. A couple of lucky snags blows this price-tag out of the water so you need to have some exposure to the American Pie, but it’s worth mentioning that Port is a much tougher match-up than last week’s Suns. In fact, removing Hawkin’s 123-point outlier, no key forward has hit 60 AF against the Power since Round 7, and Cox isn’t even your average key forward.

BEST STAT: Riley Bonner – D – $8,770 DS

Plenty of punters will be looking at Houston ($12,960) in defence, and rightly so – the DEF’s vs Pies trend is one of the most potent in the DFS game. But the salary cap is a thing, so I’ll be pivoting to Bonner frequently on this slate. He’s coming off a season-high 77 against the Bombers – who have a similar leak to rebounding defenders – and has a serious ceiling with 2 scores over 110 last season. Excellent GPP option. 

BEST RETHINK: Taylor Adams – M – $15,850 DS 

I love Adams but there’s no denying that he struggles to find the footy when Treloar’s in the side. Not only has he averaged an extra 9 points without his namesake in the side, but Taylor’s struggles alongside Treloar stretches back years with a 20-point boost in 2018 (Treloar played every game in 2016 and 2019, and only missed 1 in 2017). I still think he’ll be good, but I’m nowhere as keen on spending up on the angry bull as I was between Rounds 11 and 15.

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