WEST COAST vs NORTH MELBOURNE

Optus Stadium, 7.40pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings
WEATHER: 14 degrees and light rain.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.18 favourites, 146.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Fit or healthy, the Eagles are struggling to get their signature gamestyle going and while the wet and windy conditions at a wingless GMHBA certainly didn’t help, they didn’t do themselves any favours by failing to adapt to the conditions. Shuey’s 63-point can probably be excused given the Hewett tag, as can Redden’s with the knee injury, and the remaining big-name MID’s in Kelly (97), Sheed (129) and Yeo (118) all produced satisfactory scores despite the heavily lopsided scoreline, so the midfield wasn’t the issue this week. It was a backline unit that continued to force dry-weather footy, the driving force behind kicking at just 69% efficiency – 5% less than their yearly average. Great news if you have a soft spot for Hurn (98 AF), Duggan (92 AF) or McGovern (79 AF) in DFS, but not so great for West Coast’s chances of victory in less-than-ideal conditions. Naitanui’s 71 AF was his lowest score in 2 months, undoubtedly connected to Vardy’s inclusion as a back-up ruckman that limited NicNat’s TOG to just 64% (his lowest since Round 9). As for the uncertain roles – Witherden was a turnover machine across half-back, Allen was mainly a key forward who chopped out down back, and youngsters Luke Edwards and Foley looked after the wings but without the same impact that earned them their plaudits in West Coast’s final game before the bye. 

The Roos aren’t the drop-kicks they were to kick off the 2021 seasons, again playing competitive footy for roughly 3 quarters over the course of the match to remain in spitting distance of the Bulldogs, who now sit atop the AFL ladder. The fact that Cunnington (131 AF), Simpkin (99 AF) and Thomas (86 AF) were all able to reach value against the toughest midfield DvP match-up in the league is proof of their rediscovered shinboner spirit. The Roos did rely on their veterans to steady the ship though, taking the piss with the chip-chip stuff in defence – we’ve seen this from Hall (134 AF from 13 marks) and Ziebell (107 AF, 7 marks) all season of course, but even fellow backmen in Tarrant (110 AF, 15 marks), Atley (8 marks) and McKay (10 marks) got involved in the circle-jerking this week. It was encouraging to see the big-name Hall/Ziebell combo maintain their exorbitant scoring given that a late withdrawal from back pocket Hayden threatened to send McDonald back to defence, but Turner was flicked back into that lockdown role instead. Scott and Stephenson covered the overlap from Dumont/McDonald in the wing rotation, while Phillips spent the majority of his limited game-time up across half forward.

TEAMSHEETS

West Coast: Gaff, Ah Chee, Nelson, Rotham, Ryan IN – Redden, Jones, Witherden, Foley, Vardy OUT
Notable outs: Redden, Vardy, Witherden.

  • Despite another week with 5 changes, West Coast chug along with one of their two blueprinted structures, so there’s very little mystery. Key take-aways:
  • Duggan up to a wing with 7 defenders named behind him. He’s had mixed results in this role so far this year and sometimes it’s even a negative, as it stops him getting as involved in the West Coast chip-chip stuff in defence.
  • Ah Chee with the high half forward edge ahead of a 4-man small forward fleet. Unlikely to see significant CBA’s here with the 6 big names ahead of him, if any.
  • Naitanui/Allen return to their 70/30 ruck split with Vardy exiting the side. Excellent news for Naitanui’s scoring in particular – the reduced TOG last week cooked him.
  • Hurn to be the undisputed kick-in king for West Coast with Witherden falling on his sword.

North: Unchanged
Notable outs: Anderson, Corr, Bonar.

  • Unchanged with a likely unchanged structure. Key take-aways:
  • Turner as a lockdown defender. Means McDonald remains on a wing and doesn’t encroach on the status quo that Ziebell and Hall have formed and maintained back there.
  • Stephenson with the liquorice all-sorts role. Spent time on a wing, in the guts and across half forward last week.
  • Thomas looks to be locked into that midfield rotation, and he’s improving as a player (and a fantasy scorer) each week.

TRENDS

West Coast has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEFs in L5.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-most points to ELITE MIDs in L5.
West Coast has conceded the 4th-fewest points to RUCs in L5.

North has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to KEY DEFs in L5.
North has conceded the 5th-fewest points to GEN DEFs in L5.
North has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to MIDs in L5.

HISTORY

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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