SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings

 

GWS vs GOLD COAST

Mars Stadium, 12.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 10 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: GWS $1.33 favourites, 150.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

GWS reaffirmed their claim that Mumford is their primary ruckman with another 70-75% share of the ruck, while the incumbent Flynn was forced to make what he could out of mainly key forward duties (which, with 20 AF, wasn’t much). The Giants tend to wheel out Mummy to negate the stronger ruck opponents (Gawn, Goldy, McInerney, Naitanui in his last four) and rest him for the lesser match-ups, so I’ll be keeping an eye on him at selection this week. Green (90 AF) returned to the side after a week licking his wounds in the VFL wilderness, and GWS would be stoked with his equal team-high 11 contested possessions given the limited inside time they’re pumping into him. Unfortunately, Toby Greene’s lost cameos and the outgoing De Boer’s modest midfield minutes were all they could muster for Tom Green, so the impending return of Coniglio puts his job and role security in doubt. In defense, Cumming and Perryman have settled into a kick-out agreement ahead of Ash, and I expect that equilibrium to hold outside of any injuries in the coming weeks. Sadly, Buckley ruptured his ACL in the opening moments of the game, but the silver lining for us is that Reid was the medical sub and his activation didn’t affect any of the rotations. All other roles as expected, with Kennedy finally showing some fantasy upside with 9 marks and 81 AF as a pure wingman. 

Besides the returning Swallow, Gold Coast got creative in covering their breached midfield unit that was missing all of Greenwood, Weller and Anderson, with Fiorini given his first crack at an inside midfield gig in years. Despite butchering the ball at every opportunity, Fiorini flashed his fantasy upside with 25 touches and 101 AF and now needs to be smashed in DFS whenever the midfield gaps open up for him. His current opening could have closed already with Greenwood (fatherhood) and Weller (hamstring) likely back this week and Anderson not far behind with his recovery from a hand issue. Zac Smith’s concussion opened the door back up for Burgess and he grabbed the opportunity with both hands, finally producing optimistic suitors a ceiling game (88 AF from 24 hitouts) with his 88% ruckshare – this was almost too good to be true after being handcuffed in a dirty timeshare with Graham earlier on this season that kept his previous high to just 49%. Corbett’s concussion and Zmith’s imminent return dooms this to be a one-week wonder for Burgess, however. Speaking of ceiling games, Ainsworth (108 AF) was dominant in a half forward role in both the air (8 marks) and on the deck (20 touches) and only needs to improve his goalkicking (1.4) and consistency to really complete his transformation into a poor man’s Toby Greene. Sharp (pure wing) and Day (back-up ruck) were the other roles of interest, while I’m finally seeing the same role differentiation between Lukosius (96 AF, deep distributor) and Bowes (98 AF, half-back distributor) that has worked wonders for Short/Houli, Ziebell/Hall and Ridley/Heppell already this season.

TEAMSHEETS

GWS: Hogan, Taylor, Reid IN – Finlayson, Buckley, Flynn OUT
Notable outs: Coniglio, Preuss, Flynn, Briggs. 

  • Hogan for Finlayson, key forward L4L.
  • Taylor for Buckley, key defender L4L.
  • That leaves Reid for the back-up ruckman in Flynn up forward, essentially downsizing in attack with Reid playing a pressure forward role.
  • Opens up Mumford for a solo ruck gig. Very much in play at $9.2k.
  • Alternate structure involves spreading out the Cumming/Perryman/Ash overlapping skillsets by moving one up to a wing, Kennedy to a half forward/wing role and leaving Reid to play a small defender role. Without it, it’s hard to feel confident in picking Ash as QB3 for the Giants last week.

Gold Coast: Greenwood IN – Corbett OUT
Notable outs: Witts, Anderson, Weller, Z Smith. 

  • Greenwood returns without a midfielder leaving. Puts the midfield clocks of both Swallow and Fiorini under threat, but I’m not completely off the latter as an inside midfielder – Fiorini played every minute of Round 16 in the guts and Dew was quoted in the post-game press conference in saying that they think his best footy is as an inside MID.
  • As a result, I think Swallow is more likely to cover the wing time, but Fiorini should still expect a CBA drop with some forward flank time or limited TOG.
  • Flanders might have to make do with a permanent forward line gig with the extra midfielder back.
  • Burgess was a completely different player with a solo ruck role last week, and $7.8k is too cheap if he’s going to attend 88% of the overall ruck contests.

TRENDS

GWS has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to MIDs this year.
GWS has conceded the 4th-most points to RUCs in L5.

Gold Coast has conceded the most points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN FWDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to MIDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to RUCs in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

WESTERN BULLDOGS vs SYDNEY

Marvel, 3.20pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$12,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 12 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Bulldogs $1.30 favourites, 165.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

A late withdrawal from defender Ed Richards threatened to derail our expectations for the Doggies midfield rotations, but ultimately it was just a return to half-back for Caleb Daniel (68 AF) that bridged the impasse. My fear was that it would revert Bailey Smith to the dirty wing role that has marred his season by ruining his scoring against the Roos, but he managed to do that all by himself with an uninspiring 64 AF – despite all the same inside time from his huge 127 AF against the Eagles the week prior. Tim English took the title of “solo ruckman” very loosely with just 65% CBA presence and just 77% ruckshare overall, with Naughton’s concussion likely ruining the planned rotations with his height suddenly being required up forward again. Lewis Young covered the excess ruck and key forward rotations after starting as a key defender to truly earn the “utility” title this week, with Anthony Scott covering him with a switch to defence in the second half. Thankfully for the Bulldogs, some of their smaller forwards got the job done in Naughton’s absence, with Weightman eye-catching with 4 goals and 95 AF as a mid-sized marking target/goalsneak hybrid, while the late inclusion (and the man that has played that role for the past couple of seasons) in Wallis stepped up with 3 goals and 73 AF of his own. Dale continued his breakout season with 94 AF and 2 goals with 9 kick-ins and remains my first-choice DFS defender from Footscray moving forward.

A well-earned rest for Rowbottom opened up the midfield time for Hewett to retain his tagging duties, and the Swans wasted no time in parking him next to West Coast gamebreaker Luke Shuey. Swings for JPK (+18%) and Mills (-17%) were well within their normal week-to-week fluctuations, while Florent’s -7%, even without Rowbottom, was mildly disappointing – despite the 95 AF effort, I still think his best fantasy days are ahead of him as an inside MID. McInerney was the circuit-breaker with a return to half-back, which allowed Blakey reach value with 77 AF by sneaking up into a pure wing role; it also gave Gulden (88 AF) the freedom to scurry noticeably further up the ground. All other roles as expected for the healthy Swans, with the Eagles even doing them a favour by playing Lloyd (90 AF) back into form on a wet afternoon at GMHBA. 

TEAMSHEETS

Bulldogs: Ugle-Hagan, Richards IN – McLean, Naughton OUT
Notable outs: Dunkley, Treloar, Martin, Sweet, Naughton. 

  • Ugle-Hagan for Naughton, key forward L4L. Jamarra feels like a huge noob-trap here at basement price being a key forward, on debut, and averaging just 53 in the VFL this year.
  • Richards for McLean, which should revert Bulldogs back to their Round 15 structure: Richards (half back), Daniel (wing) and B Smith (inside midfielder).
  • The one issue with this is who covers the solo English in the ruck. It was Bruce until Naughton was injured last week, with Lewis Young thereafter. But with Bruce the big banana up forward this week, it’s possible that Young will “do a Blicavs” and cover from the backline – Daniel and/or Scott can both cover him in defence for stints if required.
  • Hannan looks to have the high half forward gig to himself, and has upside in that role.
  • Liberatore might be in for another long day if Hewett sets his sight on the clearance king.

Sydney: Unchanged
Notable outs: Reid, Rowbottom. 

  • Unchanged line-up, which means unchanged structure for the settled Swans. Key take-aways:
  • Hewett to receive another tagging gig in the midfield, and can score offensively in this role (as we saw last week with his 83 AF). Simply too cheap at $8.1k. Likely headed for Libba, although I privately wonder how long teams will be willing to let Bontempelli crush the competition week after week.
  • McInerney half back. Similar scoring potential here.
  • Florent as a pure wingman. GPP pick if he can upswing against the stingy Bulldogs.
  • Blakey on the wing. Way too cheap at $6.6k with MID/FWD eligibility.
  • Gulden as the high half forward. Looked back to early-season output last week (88 AF), but he’s pricy.

 

TRENDS

Bulldogs have conceded the most points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the 4th-most points to GEN FWDs in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the fewest points to MIDs this year.
Bulldogs have conceded the fewest points to ELITE MIDs this year.
Bulldogs have conceded the 4th-most points to RUCs this year.

Sydney has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 4th-fewest points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN FWDs in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 3rd-most points to MIDs in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 3rd-most points to ELITE MIDs in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

RICHMOND vs COLLINGWOOD

MCG, 4.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 11 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Richmond $1.52 favourites, 151.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

If it bleeds, you can kill it, and you can see from Richmond’s colourful table above that they’ve sustained their fair share of mortal wounds lately. While Prestia was a big blow coming out of Round 15, the Tigers had Edwards (ankle), Coleman-Jones (calf) and Houli (ankle) join him in the medical tent during this Suns clash. Collier-Dawkins was a popular salary saver with a heavy inside midfield role looming, but 28 AF was below even my most pessimistic of projections; meanwhile, Chol was tracking as a bust in a ruck timeshare until CCJ’s injury saved his evening with a late burst of solo rucking for 78 AF. The injuries threw a lot of Richmond’s roles up in the air, and here’s where they landed – Naish (56 AF) started hot as a pure wingman, fellow cheapie Ross scored identically with a new role across half-back, Edwards played through ankle pain in a guts/half forward flank rotation, and the Tigers kept Baker in defence rather than sending him forward as a Lambert substitute this time around. 

As expected, with everyone fit, the Pies had trouble slotting De Goey back in as a full-time midfielder – which probably got lost in the hysteria of a long-awaited 124 AF total from the talented bull. A modest 45% CBA share ranked as his lowest midfield involvement in the past month, so take care on his exposures moving forward while we find a new status-quo at Collingwood. The coaching transition is tough enough to account but, but we’ve now go to project what the time out for part-time midfielder Daicos (finger) does in the short term. Crisp was the big loser in a CBA sense, dropping back to just 23% presence with a mostly wing role (although he’s never had trouble scoring regardless of his starting position). On the flipside, Pendlebury was a pure MID with a huge 91% CBA share and is still way too cheap if that role persists, despite a nagging lack of ceiling for the veteran. Maynard hit a trough with a brutal 48-point total for his suitors, partly due to surrendering a big chunk of the kick-ins to an evergreen Mayne (109 AF) and his season-high 6 kick outs. There were consistent roles for everyone else in the second week under Robert Harvey’s regime, with Sidebottom (wing), Hoskin-Elliott (half forward) and Murphy (half-back) the other players of interest.

TEAMSHEETS

Richmond: Rioli, Mansell, Garthwaite, Stack, Dow IN – Houli, Coleman-Jones, Ross, Vlastuin, Edwards OUT
Notable outs: Nankervis, Prestia, Lambert, Edwards, Houli, Balta, Broad, Vlastuin, Ross, Coleman-Jones. 

  • A heap of changes here for the injury-riddled Tigers, who have basically transplanted in a whole new backline.
  • Stack has averaged 74 AF over his last three games in the VFL as a defender. $7.3k price-tag puts him in play.
  • Likewise, Rioli has been playing as a backman since being dropped to the VFL, averaging a comparable 76 AF at $6.2k. Huge value here.
  • Think Richmond pulls the trigger here in moving Baker up to attack to play the Lambert role – no Edwards to fill the void this week.
  • Nankervis’ late withdrawal before the weekend even started and Coleman-Jones’ calf injury casts Chol as a solo ruckman again (with Pickett to cover his spells). Mabior has proven that $8k is extremely generous when given the reins this year, even with a rough Grundy match-up.

Collingwood: C Brown, Henry, Kelly IN – Poulter, Daicos, Cox OUT
Notable outs: Daicos, Howe, Moore, Poulter, Cox. 

  • Kelly for Cox, key forward L4L.
  • Callum Brown has been percolating at VFL/scratch-match level for a couple of weeks now with the Pies wanting to give him continuity in a full-time midfield role – I highly doubt he comes back in and plays forward after 29 touches and 6 tackles last week. My favourite pick of the entire slate at $7.1k and a heap of CBA’s looming.
  • Poulter’s axing opens up a wing role, and I expect Hoskin-Elliott to join Crisp in that rotation. We’ve talked often enough about how much WHE needs that wing time to reach value, but his swollen price of $11.4k dulls his appeal slightly.
  • De Goey with a 50-50 M/F role again looks about right. Proved last week with his 124 AF that he can still dominate with that split, so I’m not too worried about his GPP prospects.

TRENDS

Richmond has conceded the fewest points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Richmond has conceded the 4th-most points to MIDs in L5.
Richmond has conceded the 2nd-most points to ELITE MIDs in L5.
Richmond has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUCs in L5.

Collingwood has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY DEFs this year.
Collingwood has conceded the most points to GEN DEFs this year.
Collingwood has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY FWDs in L5.

HISTORY

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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