SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings

 

HAWTHORN vs FREMANTLE

UTAS Stadium, 1.45pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$8,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 13 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Fremantle $1.81 favourites, 154.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

There were no big Clarko surprises from the Hawks in Silk’s 400th, with Shiels sliding into a hybrid midfield role to cover the injured Wingard’s attendances the only notable change in the midfield. Curiously, Shiels’ scoring has actually dipped this year when playing partly on the inside, which is in direct contrast to years of his data as a spare-parts midfielder – is the wing his best role now? Phillips was back up to a pure wing role with Shiels moving partly back inside; not that it helped his fantasy output with another disappointing score in the 50’s. Worpel (96 AF) maintaining his full-time CBA allotment (and actually returning a valuable DFS score) is worth tracking – he’s been restricted to below his potential lately. Ceglar (89 AF) and McEvoy (86 AF) continued their enviable run as a duo, both reaching value in a typical 65-35 ruck split. Hardwick stepped up with Impey/Day as offensive-minded defenders ahead of him out injured, scoring an 86 AF in what is hopefully a sign of things to come in the near future. Bramble (70 AF) played an interesting game as a high half forward, winning most of his touches roaming all the way up to half back – his inclusion continues to keep Moore chained to the forward 50 as a goalsneak. Nash came into the side as a third tall forward and performed about as well as you’d expect (24 AF), given we’ve seen this time and time again from the fringe Hawk. 

I expected Fyfe to play more up forward with Taberner out injured than he did, and it was his fellow midfielders in Serong (-26%) and Cerra (-20%) that paid the price at the CBA’s. Cerra (98 AF), at least, remained in the wing rotation alongside Brayshaw (also part-time) and Acres/Bewley (full-time) as expected, but Serong with a Walsh tag early and significant half forward rotations late was a big blow to his scoring. Darcy was absolutely dominant in the ruck with 40 hitouts, 20 touches and 8 marks for his 116 AF, and the next challenge for him is to replicate these numbers from a De Koning/Casboult day, up against a more polished Ceglar/McEvoy ruck unit. Walters (deep forward), Walker (half back) and Acres (a few chop outs in the ruck) were the other roles worth tracking, while Ryan showed no ill effects from getting kicked in the face in Round 15 with 94 AF from 9 marks and 50% of Fremantle’s kick-outs. 

TEAMSHEETS

Hawthorn: Grainger-Barras, Jeka, Brockman IN – Greaves, Newcombe, O’Brien OUT
Notable outs: Wingard, Impey, Morrison, Newcombe, Reeves. 

  • Grainger-Barras for Greaves, lockdown defender L4L.
  • Jeka for O’Brien, key forward L4L. Very little interest in Jeka after scores of just 25 and 31 earlier this year.
  • Brockman (small forward) for Newcombe (half forward/guts), which opens up some CBA’s for Shiels to play a hybrid midfield role, and allows Phillips to step back into a pure wing gig.
  • Bramble has some upside here with a clear high half forward role at a modest salary.

Fremantle: Banfield IN – Bewley OUT
Notable outs: Taberner, Cox, Hamling, Hughes, Young. 

  • Banfield has been playing across half forward for the Dockers’ WAFL side, so while I have him as the “high” half forward in the table above, realistically he joins a big small forward soup of Colyer/Schultz/Switkowski across half forward.
  • Bewley was playing as a pure wingman, which suggests a wing role for either or both of Acres/Brayshaw, with Fyfe needed as a full-time MID.
  • Fyfe’s sore shoulder allows the potential for Walters to play a hybrid M/F role here, although unlikely. His form is so poor at the moment – surely the Dockers need to try something to spark him?
  • Does Serong put in another half-hearted tagging job here? Tom Mitchell is the obvious candidate, but Serong has had mixed results thus far and stopping the Brownlow Medalist from finding a footy might be a bridge too far.

TRENDS

Hawthorn has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Hawthorn has conceded the 2nd-most points to MIDs this year.
Hawthorn has conceded the most points to ELITE MIDs this year.

Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the 4th-fewest points to MIDs in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

CARLTON vs GEELONG

MCG, 4.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$12,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 11 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Geelong $1.26 favourites, 163.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Now this is what I was talking about when I said that Carlton wants to play Ed Curnow on the wing to develop their young talent! Career-high CBA shares for Dow (79%) and Kennedy (71%) paid handsome dividends – particularly early – with the pair scoring 67 AF and 95 AF respectively. Kennedy is undoubtedly the better fantasy player of the two with his ability to link up and tackle, while Dow still needs to work on generating those bonus stats as just 1 mark and 2 tackles (as a full-time midfielder) is really hurting his ceiling. Meanwhile, Walsh absolutely smashed open a half-hearted Serong tag with plenty of those aforementioned peripheral stats – he had 8 marks and 8 tackles to go with 25 hard-earned touches. Absolute star, and hopefully this performance means he’ll be overlooked for tagging attention moving forward. Newman retained his kick-in role with a full game this week and he didn’t let us down in DFS, maximising every touch with 23/24 being kicks, to go with 11 marks as the sole distributor left standing in defence. Williams’ return from suspension this week makes things interesting back there in terms of hierarchy. Weitering as an interceptor (10 marks) and back-up kick-in guy (25%) got him to 89 AF and he continues to put his hand up as a stacking option in positive match-ups for DEF’s. Stocker (back pocket), Williamson (half back), Martin (permanent forward), Newnes (wing), and Petrevski-Seton (utility) were the other roles of note, while Casboult (40 AF) earned Bronx cheers from the home crowd for his efforts as a key forward/back-up ruckman on return from suspension.

The soul-call on Dangerfield’s midfield time ended up being spot on with the Geelong champ pushing his way to the top of the inside list with 74% CBA presence. Unsurprisingly, a big score followed, but even I was surprised to see 149 AF next to his name – I’m not sure the 11 marks is sustainable for Danger, but we’ll take it! Cam Guthrie (58 AF) was on the flipside of that boost with -16% CBA presence, but that wasn’t his main problem; I’m not sure his shoulder is cherry ripe at the moment because he looked sore at times and disinterested at others. A worrying trend overall for the Cats midfield was the 63-66% game clocks for each of Guthrie/Selwood/Parfitt/Narkle, which severely limited their scoring against the Bombers (and will moving forward, if it continues). Could Jeremy Cameron’s hamstring injury help ease that midfield squeeze by pushing Danger back forward in the coming weeks? The return of Stanley into the ruck reverted Geelong’s structures to their 2020 blueprint, which cast Blicavs as a key defender/back-up ruckman and had Tuohy starting across half forward for centre bounces, before pushing back as the extra defender. Tuohy (104 AF) has been able to rack up at times in this role but his floor takes a hit with the high-variance nature of the position, while Blicavs (72 AF) can’t be relied on in DFS as a key backman. 

TEAMSHEETS

Carlton: Williams IN – Williamson OUT
Notable outs: Docherty, Setterfield, Pittonet. 

  • Williams for Williamson, half back L4L.
  • Newman remains the deep quarterback, while Williams will try to rack up and break lines across half back. Clear and separate roles, so Williams’ return shouldn’t affect Newman’s potent role from the previous fortnight.
  • Don’t see any reason for Carlton to make any further changes to their structure – they succeeded by moving Ed Curnow to a wing to get Dow/Kennedy into the game and it worked with fast starts for the pair last week. Casboult was deplorable, especially early, but De Koning is too green and too slim to go without support in the ruck.
  • Take care with Walsh‘s exposures with O’Connor back for the Cats.

Geelong: Ratugolea, O’Connor, Holmes, Higgins IN – Cameron, Selwood, Dahlhaus, Narkle OUT
Notable outs: Duncan, Selwood, Cameron, Narkle. 

  • Ratugolea’s return gives the Cats a rare Stanley/Blicavs/Ratugolea ruck department. Not a heap of data for this, but 2 of the 3 times time they ran this structure in 2020, Stanley was the #1 ruck with Blicavs from chopping him out from defence. This makes sense, with Ratugolea replacing Cameron as a key tall up forward.
  • Whenever Blicavs plays as a key defender, we get Tuohy starting across half forward for the bounces, before pushing back as an extra defender. It’s counter-intuitive in some ways but this role is actually better for Tuohy’s GPP prospects because he doesn’t have to defend, he still takes the kick-ins and he’s a higher chance of upswinging with a couple of goals. Floor takes a hit though.
  • Holmes replaces Blicavs as the part-time wingman. Will spend time forward and TOG has been an issue so far.
  • I’ve put Dangerfield into the M/F column to be safe here because there’s every chance he’ll be asked to play stints up forward again with Cameron injured. Personally, with Selwood rested and Narkle dropped,  I think he’s still looking at +80% inside midfield time here.
  • O’Connor returns and will jump straight back into a tagging role. Walsh has been targeted over Cripps lately – and the gulf is widening – so I expect the Irishman to head to the 3rd-year star.
  • Higgins likely to play permanently as a forward, replacing Dahlhaus.

TRENDS

Carlton has conceded the most points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Carlton has conceded the most points to GEN FWDs in L5.

Geelong has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN DEFs this year.
Geelong has conceded the fewest points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Geelong has conceded the 4th-fewest points to MIDs in L5.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to RUCs this year.

HISTORY

 

 

BRISBANE vs ST KILDA

Metricon, 7.25pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 14 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Brisbane $1.20 favourites, 158.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

An expected late withdrawal for Lachie Neale opened up a swathe of midfield minutes, with his direct replacement in Mathieson taking the majority for a 52% CBA share in limited minutes. Meanwhile, the excess trickled down to Deven Robertson for a career-high 66% share. The most surprising aspect of this was what we didn’t see rather than what we did – Jarrod Berry making his return from a long-term injury and not receiving a single centre bounce attendance, playing just 50% TOG on a wing. I think it’s fair to say that his reintegration into this settled Lions outfit is going to be much more gradual than we expected. Robinson was the other pure wingman with 92 AF to continue his trend of increasing his output with Neale missing, while McCluggage (74 AF) rolled on as a hybrid MID despite a dislocated finger that might’ve limited his scoring. I went hard on Zac Bailey in DFS as I thought he might have snuck onto that wing with Prior dropped, but thankfully he was able to upswing with 94 AF from a guts/flank rotation with 26 touches and 3 goals – he’s making a habit of posting these kind of boxscores lately, so it’s no wonder the Lions are loathe to move him out of that role. That word “upswing” could also be used to describe the games of McCarthy (95 AF with 4 snags) and McStay (90 AF with 2), who undoubtedly capitalised on a leaky Adelaide outfit. 

It was an unchanged midfield group for the Saints this week, although Byrnes dropped well back behind the core of Steele/Dunstan/Crouch with just 7 CBA’s from his forward flank. Ryder and Marshall still maintained a roughly 50-50 split in the overall ruck contests – despite Ryder obliterating him in the CBA’s – so there’s no need to change your thinking on that timeshare just yet. I thought Ross might’ve had his name on that part-time inside role but he played exclusively on wing again, which kept his scoring in the mediocre range with 78 AF. Billings returned from a knee issue and was eased into the contest with a half forward/wing overlap gig – watch out for his scoring to receive a boost when he returns to normal programming, as we saw earlier this season. McKenzie rounded out the wing rotation with an eye-catching 75 AF. Brad Hill (99 AF) played the defensive distributor role to perfection, racking up 30 touches and pushed up the ground to punish Collingwood for refusing to play accountable footy on him. Likewise, Sinclair capitalised on Collingwood’s famous weakness for attacking defenders and was allowed to post a season-high 112 AF. Long (forward pocket), Highmore (intercept defender), Connolly (back pocket), Webster (half back) and Wood (third tall forward) were the other notable roles, with the former Roo showing promise (107 AF) in the 3rd tall forward role that Battle was recently dropped from. 

TEAMSHEETS

Brisbane: Neale, Madden IN – J Berry, Mathieson OUT
Notable outs: Gardiner, Lester, J Berry, Mathieson. 

  • Neale for Mathieson, inside midfielder L4L. Will also suck away a few CBA’s from Deven Robertson.
  • Madden (half back) for Berry (wing) sparks a minor restructure. Ah Chee returns to a forward pocket, with Bailey/Robertson looking at some leftover wing time to supplement their regular midfield servings – they’ve shown enough to suggest they deserve a heavier workload.
  • Robinson’s numbers with/without Neale this year is crazy (99 without, 62 with), but Prior’s absence from the wing gives me optimism that the drop-off won’t be anywhere near as bad this week. In my opinion, Red Bull Robbo remains in play this Saturday, especially in Lions stacks.

St Kilda: Z Jones IN – Higgins OUT
Notable outs: Hannebery, Gresham, H Clark, Bytel, Coffield. 

  • Zak Jones has exactly had the smoothest run with soft tissue injuries, so I expect he’ll be managed through TOG, or a watered-down role, or both this Saturday evening.
  • He replaces Higgins (half forward), which requires a bit of reshuffling. Byrnes losing even more midfield time is the simple and obvious solution, while Billings (knee) looked proppy enough last week to suggest that he’s got another week or two as a high half forward before he’s fit enough to tackle a full-time wing role again.
  • However, if he’s deemed fully fit, Ross is by no means locked into that pure wing role, and has already played stints across half forward at times already this year.
  • Hill finally looks settled across half back.
  • Connolly was a big let down last week, but he improved his output (30 AF) in the second half. I’m not completely off him at just $5.1k.

TRENDS

Brisbane has conceded the 4th-fewest points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Brisbane has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Brisbane has conceded the 4th-fewest points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Brisbane has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to ELITE MIDs in L5.

St Kilda has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to ELITE MIDs in L5.
St Kilda has conceded the fewest points to RUCs in L5.

HISTORY

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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