COLLINGWOOD vs GOLD COAST

Gabba, 7.10pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$50,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
$5,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 14 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and clear, humid.
BOOKIES: Collingwood $1.31 favourites, 118.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

There was only 1 main change for Collingwood’s midfield mix this week and it was the return of the rested Greenwood at the expense of Tyler Brown. Greenwood is essentially playing the Wills/Sier role, which means limited TOG but a majority inside role (and it’s hurting his DFS upside because he’s not a high PPM scorer like that pair). Elliott dropped down to a more realistic 73% CBA presence and that will likely continue to drop with the Pies set to regain some key soldiers. Crisp played an extremely loose role across half-back for the second consecutive week, resulting in scores of 116 and 121 on the trot. Maynard’s 56 AF looks a bit concerning, but he did cop a nasty corkie in the opening minutes so it was a decent result given the circumstances. Daicos and Hoskin-Elliott were the primary wingmen in this one, with Phillips covering the overlap from a HFF before straining his hamstring. The Brown brothers were stationed across half forward, with Stephenson stuck deeper as a true full forward (but with little influence). Moore was switched forward in the last quarter to try and spark a comeback, but this was merely a “break glass in case of emergency” manoeuvre.

The phasing out of Weller continued in full force this week, with the Suns allowing him a season-low of just 13% presence in Round 16. While it’s disappointing news for his DFS outlook, it does allow the rest of the core in Greenwood, Miller and Swallow to have more guaranteed inside time if this trend continues. Anderson (39% presence) continued in his 50-50 role, while MacPherson (26%) surprisingly kept the CBA’s from his return game. Ellis had his own wing as per usual, with Weller and Anderson sharing the other. Bowes (HBF), Ainsworth (HFF), MacPherson (HFF/guts) and Corbett (deep forward) were the other roles of note.

TEAMSHEETS

Collingwood: Treloar, De Goey, Varcoe IN – Stephenson, Lynch, Phillips OUT

  • Varcoe and De Goey will replace Lynch and Stephenson up forward. The Pies already have 7 defenders which is why I have Varcoe up in attack, while I feel like the Pies will take the same approach to De Goey’s injury comeback as Essendon did with Stringer by easing him in as a permanent forward. 
  • That leaves Treloar to replace Phillips in the midfield mix, although he’ll play more on the inside than on Flip’s wing. Typically, this results in a more hybrid wing/guts role for Pendlebury, while Elliott can expect to have his CBA’s clipped – and this is without even factoring in the potential for a few De Goey cameos. 
  • With Treloar’s history of soft tissue injuries, expect him to hover around the 65-70% TOG mark in this one, especially if the margin blows out. 
  • I don’t see another role for Greenwood with the backline packed, so I expect him to run out the Wills role again.
  • No Mayne, Stephenson or Phillips strongly suggests that Hoskin-Elliott plays on the opposite wing to Daicos

Notable outs: Howe, Mayne, Sier, Wills, Sidebottom, Phillips.

Gold Coast: Harbrow, Holman, Lemmens IN – Ainsworth, Budarick, Flanders OUT

  • Harbrow replaces Budarick in defence L4L.
  • Holman replaces Ainsworth, forward flank L4L.
  • Lemmens replaces Flanders, forward pocket L4L.
  • No structure change here and the Suns have been pretty consistent all year so I expect a close approximation to what we saw in Round 16. We can basically profile Weller as a wingman these days, with Bowes as a defender and MacPherson with upside in a high HF role vacated by Ainsworth.

Notable outs: Rowell, Ainsworth.

TRENDS

Collingwood conceded the most points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+16.6)
Collingwood conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-4.6)
Collingwood conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (+12.8)
Collingwood conceded the 4th-least points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (-5.0)

Gold Coast conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (+6.8)
Gold Coast conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s this year (-2.1)

HISTORY

Grundy – 145, 152, 86
Treloar – 129, DNP, 101
Crisp – 125, 79, 87
Pendlebury – 120, 95, 84
Adams – 97, 101, 105

Witts 97, 79, 105 (off injured halfway through the last)
Miller – 97, 114, 80 (tagged Sidebottom)
Harbrow – 89, 121, 75
Swallow – 82, 126, 117

PLAYS

BEST VALUE: Will Hoskin-Elliott – F – $9,320 DS

Almost guaranteed wing time here with Philips, Sidebottom and Mayne out ahead of him. A much more consistent scorer as a wingman, WHE averaged 4 marks and 50 AF as a forward this year before being released up the ground in the past 3 weeks, bumping those numbers up to 7.3 marks and 66 AF.

BEST RUCK: Brodie Grundy – R – $15,670 DS

Getting Grundy under $16k is smash territory as it is, then you whack in the fact that he’s scored 152 and 145 against the Suns in his last two – both against Witts – and it becomes a no-brainer. Cameron and now Lynch are out for the Pies so you can be confident that Collingwood won’t muck around with stints up forward or over the top TOG restrictions here.

Grundy should be your main man here, with the other 3 options contrarian plays for GPP’s.

BEST STAT: Lukosius & Bowes – D – $11,750 & $11,450 DS

DEF’s against the Pies has been a trend we’ve milked for years but this is almost as potent as I’ve seen it over the past month. 

Pure green all the way down, even when you remove Laird’s beast score that he technically won as a midfielder that day. Most of these guys are the distributors, so that’s why I’m looking squarely at one or both of Luokosius and Bowes to rack up the mark-kick combos and feature in a winning DFS line-up, regardless of how the Suns perform. 

BEST RETHINK: Adam Treloar – M – $15,030 DS

He’ll definitely have his minutes managed in this one and the field will be right across that, so I expect him to be underowned at a sliver over $15k. Treloar played 74% in his return from a hamstring injury earlier this year, but had no problems finding the ball with 30 touches and 105 AF in that time. Still has a ceiling whenever he’s on the park and I think this is a spot where you can separate your line-ups from the field… but it’ll be a nervous watch with those hammies ready to twang at any moment.

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