$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)
ST KILDA vs HAWTHORN
Metricon, 1.05pm AEST
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 22 degrees and partly cloudy, chance of showers.
BOOKIES: St Kilda $1.25 favourites, 112.5 over/under.
CBA’s & ROLES
It was a super tight inside unit for the Saints this week as you can see, with all of Ross, Steele, Jones and Sinclair maxed out and Ryder/Marshall doing their thing in the ruck. I thought Billings (wing) might’ve snuck a couple of attendances with Bytel’s 59% up for grabs, but it was a reintroduction to the midfield for Sinclair that eventuated – it’s a shame he only managed 40 AF for those that called it correctly. Ross played a defensive stoppages role that capped his output (53 AF), while Steele went from the hunter to the hunted with a Viney tag but handled the pressure well to finish with 90 AF. Hill (85 AF) enjoyed his pure wing assignment without those pesky inside midfielders overflowing into his territory, with only Ed Phillips trespassing onto his real estate. Geary (HBF), Clarke (HBF) and Battle (3rd tall forward) were the other roles of note.
What can we even take out of Hawthorn’s horrific defeat at the hands of the lowly Crows, especially with the sheer volume of changes looming for them this week? I’ll just cover the key points. Ceglar was the big banana in the ruck but only took 52% of contests, with Lewis (15%) and O’Brien (22%) both earning even more time than the presumed back-up in McEvoy (10%), who was back to manning a key defensive post. Shiels’ absence allowed Wingard to sneak some midfield time as expected, resulting in his highest score in a month (which was still only 66 AF). Worpel’s KPI’s were down across the board, and I didn’t notice any niggle that might’ve sparked it – active resting, perhaps? Clarkson made it hard for us with another last-quarter magnet shuffle – Burgoyne (defence) and Impey (forward) switched ends late and McEvoy shifted into the ruck. Notable roles for the game included Scrimshaw as the extra/distributor out of defence, while Howe played on a wing.
St Kilda: Lonie, Marsh IN – Hind, Membrey OUT
- Lonie replaces Hind, HFF L4L.
- Marsh replaces Membrey, key forward L4L.
- Not a lot to chat about here, although no structure change means that Sinclair is very likely a full-time midfielder again. Worth a long look at $9,330 against the Hawthorn Titanic.
- Does Ross tag again? He’s kept an eye on Neale and Petracca so far, so inside MID’s in Mitchell or Worpel would be in the gun. Bit of a kamikaze move – neither rack up touches when Ross sets his sights on someone.
Notable outs: Dunstan, Hannebery, Gresham, Carlisle, Membrey.
Hawthorn: Greaves, Moore, Morrison, Morris, Shiels, Frost, Day IN – McEvoy, Stratton, Glass, Minchington, Impey, Hanrahan, Burgoyne OUT
- So many moving pieces, so here:
- Ceglar solo is a big takeaway. Has ceiling on his day.
- Scrimshaw plays kind of like Whitfield, a wingman who drops back and plays across half-back (which is why Hawks have been playing 8 defenders of late, one more than most of the league).
- Greaves is a small defender who averaged 53 in the VFL last year. Will scale strongly on Mark-Kick combos, so if you don’t think the Hawthorn system will get up and going against the Saints in the wet up in QLD, then give him a miss in DFS.
- Morrison and Howe could easily switch roles, having been groomed in the same way.
Notable outs: Sicily, Smith, O’Meara, Patton, McEvoy.
St Kilda conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (-8.1)
Hawthorn conceded the most points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+13.0)
Hawthorn conceded the most points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (+12.8)
Hawthorn conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (+8.1)
Hawthorn conceded the 3rd-most points to MID’s this year (+7.8)
Hawthorn conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (+10.8)
Ross – 128, 107
Billings – 124, 97
Steele – 95, 120, 99 (tagged Mitchell for a half then he gave up, had another crack next game)
Marshall – 88, 78 (solo ruck)
Lonie – 97, 91 (4 goals, then 3.5)
Mitchell – DNP, 106, 147 (tagged by Steele for a half then he gave up, had another crack next game)
Worpel – 92, 94
McEvoy – 91, 93, 107 (not playing but looking good for Ceglar…)
Scrimshaw – 79 (HBF role)
GEELONG vs ESSENDON
Gabba, 3.35pm AEST
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 30 max)
WEATHER: 22 degrees and partly cloudy, high chance of showers
BOOKIES: Geelong $1.31 favourites, 117.5 over/under.
CBA’s & ROLES
A knee niggle from the previous game limited Steven to just 58% TOG, but at least he was in the midfield and able to reach a non-disastrous 57 AF. Guthrie happily snaffled up his leftover CBA’s. Blicavs was the back-up ruck without Ratugolea once again, playing off a wing rather than in defence as we’ve come to expect from him this year – same goes for Tuohy’s HFF role, although he was in the wars all game. Duncan limped to 80 AF and is playing big minutes (92% TOG) – the problem is that a lot of them are across half-forward rather than in the midfield. Parfitt and Atkins basically ran a straight swap between their HFF and guts roles, with Parfitt the edge in a 60/40 split.
Draper and Phillips jumped on the ruckman merry-go-round at Essendon, with the project player once again failing to reach DFS value with a 42 to add to his other pair of solo ruck disappointments. The headline here was an injury to McGrath, which resulted in a couple of cameos for Clarke but, crucially, a big 31% CBA boost for Parish. He’s always been one injury away from DFS relevancy and unsurprisingly capitalised here with 93 AF. Devon Smith played well in his new sweeper role across half-back but doesn’t get the tackles he needs to hit his ceiling. Langford and Heppell were the primary wingmen here (with Merrett taking the overflow) and the former absolutely dominated with 113 AF from 29 touches and 8 marks – like Merrett, Langford just needs the opportunity to thrive in DFS (and Smith’s role change combined with McGrath’s injury is affording him that). Ridley’s 13 marks and career-high 103 AF was a big feature for the Bombers across half back, especially with Saad tagged out of the game by Hutchings. Hooker and Stringer were permanent key forwards but never got going, with McDonald-Tipungwuti (forward pocket), Mosquito (forward pocket), Clarke (HFF) and Snelling (HFF) joining them up forward while Guelfi (HBF) lined up in defence.
Geelong: Fogarty IN – Steven OUT
- Essentially a L4L here for the Cats here with Fogarty to see some CBA’s, although he’ll play more minutes up forward than Steven. Duncan up to a full-time midfield role coming off a “bye” would do the trick.
- Ruck structure remains the same – Stanley to take the bulk with Blicavs chopping him out off a wing.
- Atkins looked a bit off the speed with a couple of holding-the-ball decisions rightfully going against him last week, so wouldn’t be surprised to see him phased out of the CBA’s at some point. Probably isn’t this week though with Steven and Selwood missing.
Notable outs: Fort, Ablett, Selwood, Steven.
Essendon: Townsend, Redman IN – McGrath, Daniher OUT
- Townsend replaces Daniher up forward, L4L.
- That leaves Redman (HBF) to replace McGrath (guts), which obviously requires a restructure. Devon Smith from his sweeper role back into the midfield does the trick, although whether that’s on the inside or outside is up in the air with Heppell/Merrett both able to play either mode.
- That means that Parish (guts) and Langford (wing) look set to endure (although beware that their Round 15 KPI’s are slightly juiced up with the early McGrath injury).
- Hooker at CHF and Stringer at FF locked in with Daniher managed.
Notable outs: McGrath, Zaharakis, Bellchambers, Daniher.
Geelong conceded the least points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (-2.6)
Geelong conceded the least points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-8.9)
Geelong conceded the least points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-5.3)
Geelong conceded the 2nd-least points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (-1.9)
Essendon conceded the 4th-least points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (-0.6)
Essendon conceded the most points to RUC’s this year (+13.1)
Duncan – 120, 108, 91
Guthrie – 114
Menegola – 109, 71, 91
Dangerfield – INJ, 105, 88
Selwood – DNP, 115
Hawkins – 105, 98, 84 (4, 3 and 2 goals respectively)
Shiel – 104, 110 (with GWS)
Merrett – 104, 108, 150
Parish – 90, DNP, 97 (midfield roles)
Smith – 86, 96 (midfield roles)
Heppell – 89, 113, 100
Hurley – 82, DNP, 100
WESTERN BULLDOGS vs WEST COAST
Metricon, 8.10pm AEST
$20,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 40 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and showers.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.71 favourites, 115.5 over/under.
CBA’s & ROLES
Early injuries to Wood and Vandermeer resulted in boosted TOG numbers across the board for the Bulldogs, but thankfully it didn’t disturb the midfield mix. English must have worked on whatever Bevo needed him to because he attended 96% of CBA’s, although that’s a bit misleading – he only took 54% of overall ruck contests, with Dunkley (0% CBA presence) taking 33% of the hitouts. Dunkley’s weird role does have a silver lining though, with DFS punters able to have confidence in the midfield splits of Macrae, Bontempelli, B Smith and Libba. Richards started up forward but was switched back to cover the injured Wood. Hayes (HFF), McLean (HFF/wing) and a resting forward position for Dunkley were the other roles of note.
The limited TOG’s of both Shuey (injured) and NicNat (standard) warped West Coast’s CBA’s a little, but you get the idea. They finally realised that Redden is wasted on a wing, moving him inside to cover the injured Yeo (and eventually Shuey) with a season-high 56% CBA presence. Sheed was used on a wing in conjunction with Gaff and a smattering of Ah Chee, Cole and Nelson (the Eagles went in defender-heavy). Jetta on a half forward flank released the pressure on the back-7 squeeze, but isn’t a DFS threat up in the F50. Hutchings tagged Saad in a defensive forward role. O’Neil was used almost exclusively off a HFF, Allen was the JJK replacement, and Williams chopped out NicNat when required.
Western Bulldogs: R Smith, Lloyd, Cordy IN – Wood, Dickson, Vandermeer OUT
- Lloyd replaces Dickson, L4L.
- Cordy replaces Wood in defence, L4L.
- That leaves R Smith for Vandermeer, which probably holds structurally despite Roarke being used as a back-flanker ideally. Richards returns to his planned HFF flank.
- Will Dunkley play as a ruckman again? Only Bevo knows. Very hard to pick in DFS if he’s not getting CBA’s, but at least his price is dropping. Slowly.
- Take care with Johanissen/Daniel exposures – Hutchings with a defensive forward assignment is likely after last week’s job on Saad.
Notable outs: Wood.
West Coast: Ainsworth, Kennedy, Waterman IN – Williams, Shuey, Hurn OUT
- Kennedy essentially replaces Williams, with Oscar Allen returning to his regular “key forward with some back-up ruckwork” programming.
- Waterman replaces Hurn essentially, with Jetta (potentially, see below) sliding back to a defense to replace his former skipper’s penetrative kicking.
- Ainsworth replaces Shuey essentially, but might have to pay his dues in the forward line with O’Neill a replacement-in-waiting.
- Eagles are still 1 too heavy in defence which means that Nelson/Cole with have stints up the ground again (although Jetta remaining on a HFF would also solve that issue).
- Look out for Redden to see another significant boost in his CBA’s without both Yeo and Shuey. O’Neill could see some time in there too, or Sheed with a CBA bump and Ainsworth covering his wing time is a distinct possibility also.
- I assume Hutchings will forward-tag again, but there’s always the possibility that he tags Hunter on a wing after having that job the last time these teams met (and Hunter’s definitely in the type of form that would justify it, too).
Notable outs: Yeo, Shuey, Hurn, Williams, Brander.
Bulldogs conceded the 2nd-least points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (-8.7)
Bulldogs conceded the most points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (+13.4)
West Coast conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (+12.4)
West Coast conceded the 4th-least points to RUC’s this year (-0.6)
Dunkley – 119, 104
Hunter – 80, 104, 119 (tagged by Hutchings)
Bontempelli – 96, DNP, 73
Macrae – 69, 76, 134 (very quiet, but these were beltings)
English – 80 (no NicNat)
Johannisen – 90, 90, 73, 51 (tagged by Hutchings)
Daniel – 104, 95
Gaff – 123, 104, 92
Sheed – 85
Redden – 82, 110, 67
Darling – 104, 109, 101 (6, 3, 4 goals respectively)
Cripps – 94, 101
Sheppard – 89, 86