$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
$500 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, no multi-entry)
SYDNEY vs WEST COAST
GMHBA, 1.10pm AEST
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 12 degrees and light rain.
BOOKIES: Sydney $1.84 favourites, 161.5 over/under.
CBA’s & ROLES
After biding his time as a defender, George Hewett finally earned a reprieve with a midfield role (54% CBA share), albeit a tagging one on Boak. Rowbottom (79 AF) was the big loser from a CBA perspective with a 45% drop, although I’d argue that Florent (43 AF) with his bump down to a liquorice all-sorts role (time spent on the wing, in the guts and across half forward) was the biggest loser. Even McInerney (75 AF) looks settled in that wing gig ahead of him. I’m struggling to find any other relevant things to talk about here – Sydney has been incredibly healthy all season and everyone else is currently settled in their roles.
No surprises for the Eagles despite the 5 changes, all the way down to an insipid effort whenever the tiniest speck of moisture appears on a football. Gaff (-53% CBA share) slid back over to a pure wing role to allow Shuey (limited TOG) and Kelly (limited CBA’s) to get their fill on the inside. Unsurprisingly the negative effects didn’t stop there, as Luke Edwards was banished from midfield involvement and his score suffered with just 32 AF in a half forward role. Naitanui (99 AF) was able to do more of the heavy lifting in the ruck this week, taking 76% of the overall ruck contests to shield Oscar Allen from a lot of the rough and tumble – his scoring has gone to a new level (100 avg over last 5) since he’s been able to consistently hit 70-75% game-time over the past month or so. Duggan sliding back to a half back role was the only other structural difference, although Waterman was deployed in a noticeably different role as a high half forward, which paid off as he racked up 10 marks and 80 AF.
Sydney: Wicks, Blakey IN – Brand, Rowbottom OUT
Notable outs: Reid, Rowbottom.
- Brand’s axing suggests that Hewett returns to defence, but Rowbottom’s resting suggests he remains in the midfield. Swans can go a couple of ways here, but I’ve played it safe with the structure in the table above.
- Other options include a) moving McInerney to defence (Florent pure wing, Hewett inside MID), or b) sending Hayward back to defence and keeping the same structure from last week otherwise.
- Pushing ahead with the tabled structure – Florent has a rare opportunity for CBA’s that could help save his poor recent scoring (48 avg in last three). I love him in Sydney stacks.
- Blakey played a wing role in the VFL and the Swans have room for him there this week. Sub involvement has poisoned his price-tag so he’s another I’m looking at for salary cap relief.
- Heeney has still been playing deep lately but the extra forward in Wicks gives him scope to push up the ground. GPP upside based on Teamsheets alone.
West Coast: Witherden, Jones, Foley, Vardy, Langdon IN – Petruccelle, Waterman, Rotham, Ryan, L Edwards OUT
Notable outs: Ryan.
- Witherden for Rotham, backline L4L.
- Jones/Langdon for Ryan/Petruccelle, small forward L4L’s.
- Vardy for Waterman in attack, although he’ll likely spend a heap of his time on the pine and backing up Naitanui in the ruck , rather than playing purely as a forward.
- Foley on a wing, at a bargain price, is very alluring.
Sydney has conceded the fewest points to KEY DEF’s in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Sydney has conceded the 3rd-most points to RUC’s in L5.
West Coast has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
West Coast has conceded the 4th-most points to ELITE MID’s this year.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to RUC’s this year.
COLLINGWOOD vs ST KILDA
MCG, 3.20pm AEST
$12,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 12 degrees and light rain.
BOOKIES: Collingwood $1.83 favourites, 152.5 over/under.
CBA’s & ROLES
Straightforward changes for the Pies this week with Adams/Grundy replacing De Goey/Lynch and everyone else staying the course. The big squeeze comes this weekend with De Goey returning, so Pendlebury’s 90% CBA share is under threat, while Elliott and Daicos aren’t exactly assured of their cameos, either. I was clenching my booty for caretaker coach Robert Harvey to come in and stamp his own take on Collingwood’s structures, but he showed mercy and most things remained the same. A position opened up in defence for Nathan Murphy and he took the opportunity with both hands for a 70 AF, but apart from that, we only had a couple of recalibrations. He still had Daicos in a hybrid midfield role, but Sidebottom looked to play more as a wingman than a high half forward this week, Hoskin-Elliott sliding down to the forward line instead – unsurprisingly, WHE’s output (63 AF) dipped without that coveted wing time. Maynard continued his ascension as a half-back distributor, taking the lead with 57% of Collingwood’s kick-ins while racking up 27 touches, 8 marks and 6 tackles. It’s encouraging to see that the Pies haven’t abandoned their ball-hogging strategy in defence with Bucks out the door either, with Mayne (103 AF, 10 marks), Roughead (97 AF, 13 marks) and Murphy (8 marks) all getting involved in the “sharing is caring” mindset back there.
A last-minute late withdrawal from Jack Billings put DFS coaches through absolute chaos in trying to a) get him out of their line-ups, but also b) figure out how the Saints would re-jig their structures with the defender Nick Coffield replacing the sore wingman. In the end, Ben Long was flicked to a forward pocket role that released Battle further up the ground to cover the leftover wing time, and he relished the new-found freedom with 21 touches, 8 marks and 90 AF. The incoming Ross was probably expecting to play a hybrid midfield role but that turned into a pure wing gig with Brad Hill remaining in defence and Billings ruled out – so enter Ryan Byrnes with what was easily a season-high 60% CBA share for a handy 68 AF. McKenzie rounded out the wing rotation in his return to senior action. Marshall (43 AF) struggled in his return from a lingering foot issue, so it’s possible we won’t see him back to his best anytime soon – Ryder’s 89 AF might be closer to his expected score if he has this significant edge in fitness between the pair. Leo Connolly started as the sub but a hamstring issue for Coffield activated him in the 3rd quarter and the defender showed a fantasy game with 53 AF (11 touches and 7 marks) in just 30% time on ground – one to watch.
Collingwood: De Goey IN – McCreery OUT
Notable outs: Moore, Howe, Sier, T Brown, McCreery.
- Bit of a midfield squeeze with De Goey coming in for the pure forward McCreery.
- First time we’ve seen this mix since De Goey’s switch was flicked to “inside midfielder” a few weeks ago, so take the table above with a grain of salt. Sidebottom/Daicos are interchangeable, Hoskin-Elliott could still have claims on a wing role and Murphy could always be switched back into attack, which would allow either Crisp or Pendlebury to slot into a half back flank and ease the bulging midfield squeeze.
- One thing looks certain – a full-time forward role for Elliott.
- Mayne retained his busy-bee role in defence last week, even with Moore out injured. Should be safe to pick as you normally would, but the price-tag is swelling weekly.
St Kilda: Billings, Connolly IN – Battle, Coffield OUT
Notable outs: Gresham, Hannebery, Jones, H Clark, Bytel.
- Connolly for Coffield, half back L4L. Gets a chance to pick up right where he left off, so expect him to be popular at $5,120 after a late flurry of scoring last weekend.
- Billings for Battle and will take his place on the wing, which pushes Ross back into a hybrid midfield role, which in turn pushes Byrnes back to a forward flank to take whatever midfield scraps he can get.
- Long looks like remaining up forward with 7 defenders named ahead of him.
Collingwood has conceded the 4th-fewest points to GEN FWD’s in L5.
Collingwood has conceded the 4th-fewest points to ELITE MID’s in L5.
St Kilda has conceded the 4th-most points to RUC’s this year.
WESTERN BULLDOGS vs NORTH MELBOURNE
Marvel, 4.40pm AEST
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 11 degrees and showers.
BOOKIES: Western Bulldogs $1.04 favourites, 169.5 over/under.
CBA’s & ROLES
The wet conditions changed up the Bulldogs’ settled midfield roles with a new inside gig for Bailey Smith, and the difference in output was plain to see – 127 AF and 31 touches were personal highs for the last 13 weeks. Caleb Daniel (98 AF) was the midfielder flicked out to a wing, and his apprenticeship across half back over the last few years has made him infinitely more suited to the outside role – his 9 marks in his first game as a wingman beats Bailey Smith’s best over 3 months in the role. This is one change I can see continuing in dry conditions. Tim English finally gave a yelp as a solo ruckman, hitting 95 AF with 7 marks despite the wet conditions – he’s at his fantasy best when he can expose opposition ruckman (like Naitanui) with his elite endurance, and he was able to position himself unopposed a kick behind the footy on many occasions on Sunday afternoon. Hunter (pure wing), Ed Richards (half-back), Johannisen (pressure forward), McLean (half forward) and Garcia (half forward) were the other roles of note.
North smoothed out their CBA’s this week, with Cunnington/Thomas copping small drops to allow Davies-Uniacke/Stephenson to see a few more reps. Will Phillips replaced fellow rookie Tom Powell in an identical role splitting time between half forward and the guts, and 62 AF was a very usable score at his price. McDonald is slowly figuring out that wing role with 20 touches 78 AF, but you can’t touch him in DFS at the moment given that he’s priced on his 2020 form – where he had the Ziebell/Hall backline goodness all to himself. Stephenson is an interesting study – he scored 99 AF this week with more of a midfield role, sliding up from a forward-line gig in Round 14. This was possible because Turner replaced him in attack with a pressure role and Lachie Young (18 AF) returned to a lockdown role in defence – I think this is North’s best usage of this trio, by far. Meanwhile, Goldstein pumped out a team-high (and personal season-best) 119 AF in taking full advantage of the diabolical Gold Coast ruck situation; smashing rucks against the Suns needs to be a priority for the rest of the season at this point.
Bulldogs: Young IN – Gardner OUT
Notable outs: Dunkley, Treloar, Martin, Sweet.
- Young for Gardner, key defender L4L.
- The only mystery with the Bulldogs’ structure is whether Bailey Smith is unleashed on the inside again – he was huge last week with 127 AF from 74% CBA share – but is this only something that Bevo will do in the wet?
- Caleb Daniel to play wherever Baz doesn’t, and has the skillset to rack up regardless of inside/outside/backline roles.
- English to solo ruck against Goldstein, who has sneakily given up some big scores this year.
- Ed Richards played a role in defence last week and I didn’t see anything to suggest he won’t again.
North: Hayden IN – Young OUT
Notable outs: Anderson, Polec, Corr, Bonar.
- Hayden for Young, lockdown defender L4L.
- No structure change suggests we see a repeat of last week – McDonald on a wing, Stephenson as a hybrid midfielder, a pressure forward role for Turner and Thomas/Phillips with part-time inside midfield roles from half forward.
- Phillips at basement price looks juicy, but up against easily the toughest midfield to score against in the land, is it a honeytrap?
Bulldogs have conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY FWD’s in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the fewest points to MID’s in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the fewest points to ELITE MID’s in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the 4th-most points to RUC’s with English rucking.
North has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to KEY DEF’s in L5.
North has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN FWD’s in L5.
North has conceded the 4th-most points to RUC’s in L5.
Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.