SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$1,000 on Draftkings ($15 entry, 2 max)

 

MELBOURNE vs GWS

MCG, 1.45pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$8,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 10 degrees and showers.
BOOKIES: Melbourne $1.17 favourites, 154.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Viney (74% CBA share) returned from injury to throw a spanner into the works of Melbourne’s settled rotations, but thankfully that was where the surprises ended. Sparrow (0%) was completely removed from the midfield group and had to make do with half a game across half forward, while Harmes was also sent to a forward flank for half of his evening but was at least able to maintain 37% CBA share and he limped to 82 AF. Jordon was stationed on a wing (when not lining up as a forward) and got busy with 92 AF in limited minutes, but his floor takes a hit along with the CBA’s in the long term. The Demons forward line seemed to struggle without the third tall (Weideman most recently), particularly for Fritsch (50 AF) who had to play taller than his flesh commands. Neal-Bullen (63 AF) had to play deeper forward with the extra midfielder moonlighting across half forward, which hurts his upside significantly. All other roles as expected, with the Twin Towers of May and Lever dominating in defence – the pair are sure to take up a big chunk of the Giants’ match committee meeting. 

Tom Green’s axing eased the strain on GWS’s packed midfield… which the Giants promptly re-applied by whacking his namesake Toby Greene into the guts for basically the entirety of the surrendered slack. So not a lot really changed outside of that; Flynn (63 AF) and Briggs (60 AF) basically replicated everything from Round 14 (right from their 50-50 ruck split to their capped scoring), Kelly still filled a hybrid midfield role and de Boer still snuck a few CBA’s from a half forward flank. The key difference there was a lack of a tag for the frigid Frenchman, which was a curious decision to make with Tom Mitchell racking up 40 touches and 11 marks. The consistency extended to the backline, with Cumming (106 AF) able to co-exist with Perryman (105 AF) in defence by maintaining his kick-in supremacy. Meanwhile, Haynes (95 AF) kept things ticking in the interceptor role with 6 intercept marks amongst 13 grabs overall. Reid (back pocket), Daniels (high half forward), Lloyd (half forward) and Kennedy (wing/half forward rotation) were the peripheral roles worth tracking. 

TEAMSHEETS

Melbourne: Unchanged
Notable outs: Weideman, B Brown. 

  • Nothing to write home about here with Melbourne going in unchanged.
  • Harmes and Jordon have been reduced to hybrid roles covering the CBA’s and wing respectively, so beware of the hit to their floors. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Harmes given a defensive role at some point as the 4th midfield with Viney back, with Whitfield/Kelly the prime targets.
  • Can forget about Sparrow in DFS as a forward.

GWS: Mumford, Green, Ash IN – Briggs, de Boer, Reid OUT
Notable outs: Coniglio, Hogan, Taylor, Briggs, de Boer. 

  • Mumford for Briggs, ruck L4L. Expect another dirty 65-35 ruck timeshare with Mumford over Flynn, which has been the way they’ve used the pair in tandem in their last few occasions alongside each other.
  • Green for de Boer. While Green will fill plenty of de Boer’s time across half forward, he’ll need a few extra CBA’s to satiate his hunger. Toby Greene likely loses his cameos with the extra inside midfield in the side.
  • Ash for Reid in defense, which gives GWS that awkward Cumming/Perryman/Ash cockblock situation again, with Ash squeezed out the last time around. Does he play a more accountable role in exchange for a return to the senior side? Either way, take care with their exposures as a trio – although they do have a great DvP match-up here against the Dees.

TRENDS

Melbourne has conceded the most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the fewest points to RUC’s this year.

GWS has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.
GWS has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to MID’s this year.
GWS has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

ADELAIDE vs BRISBANE

Adelaide Oval, 4.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 11 degrees and showers.
BOOKIES: Brisbane $1.22 favourites, 167.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Adelaide kept things simple by wheeling out the exact same midfield group from before their bye, although that will definitely change moving forward with Rory Sloane picking up a finger injury late. Schoenberg (46 AF) continues to get midfield sustenance with a 52% CBA share, but can’t quite convert them into fantasy scores. Sam Berry (27 AF) as a pressure forward is well back in that pecking order currently. Brodie Smith played a more pure half-back role this week after sneaking up onto a wing pre-bye, and the fruits of his labour were 6 kick-ins and 101 fantasy points – this is his best role currently. Seedsman (85 AF) is the primary wingman for the Crows but the other 1-2 slots out there have been up for grabs lately; Sholl (full-time) and Mackay (part time with HFF) were in the mix this week, while Hamill was relegated to a half-back flank. 

Not wanting to be left out of the “settled midfield” trend, Brisbane made it easy on us by swapping out Mathieson’s attendances for Zorko exactly.  A massive 10 marks and 12 tackles tipped Zorko’s scoring (142 AF) well ahead of the man he replaced, though. Neale was tagged early by O’Connor and things looked grim for the Brownlow Medalist following an apparent shoulder injury, but he soldiered on with an 81-point second half to save his night. We’re also starting to see further differentiation between Robertson and Bailey in their part-time midfield roles – Robertson was given a stoppage job on Selwood in modest minutes, while Bailey gets fewer CBA’s but flexes his elite endurance by rotating through half forward in heavy TOG. The way it’s set up, both/either can upswing in these hybrid roles, rather than the one-or-the-other situation we worked through earlier this year. McInerney feasted on Geelong’s lack of a recognised ruckman for 115 AF, amassing 35 hitouts and taking 6 grabs largely unopposed for kicks down the line – he won’t get this kind of leeway against an energetic O’Brien in Round 16. Birchall’s late withdrawal gave Rich full distribution rights for Brisbane and he took full advantage despite a rough DvP match-up, scoring 104 AF with 88% of the kick-ins. All other roles as expected. 

TEAMSHEETS

Adelaide: Frampton, Pedlar, Murray IN – Fogarty, McAdam, Hamill OUT
Notable outs: Crouch, Sloane, Lynch, Talia. 

  • Frampton for Fogarty up forward. Probably assumes the back-up ruck duties from Thilthorpe, but won’t make much difference either way – both will scale in DFS on how well they hit the scoreboard.
  • Murray for Hamill in defence. Leaves Brodie Smith and Chayce Jones as the only recognised attacking defenders, so I’ll bump their projections up slightly (Jones had a season-high 69 last week!), while Doedee is freed up more to intercept with the extra key defender behind him.
  • Pedlar to make his AFL debut, and will likely replace McAdam as a L4L across half forward. He’s scored 95, 69 and 63 in his last three SANFL games after having his minutes managed earlier in the year. Here’s what I wrote about him pre-season, and while my thoughts haven’t changed too much on him, I’m less bullish on Pedlar’s upside given how Adelaide have managed his groin issues through capped TOG this year:

Brisbane: Birchall, J Berry IN – Madden, Prior OUT
Notable outs: Neale*, Gardiner, Lester, Mathieson. 

  • Keep an eye out for Neale news – shoulder issues from the weekend and calf issues during the week have him under a heavy injury cloud. Assuming he plays though…
  • Birchall in for Madden, half back L4L.
  • J Berry in for Prior, which likely means a reshuffle on the wing. I can see Bailey (and his elite endurance) being asked to cover those rotations ahead of Berry/Robertson, despite his desire to be used more on the inside this year. Berry with a forward flank/guts rotation is the most likely outcome historically.

TRENDS

Adelaide has conceded the most points to KEY DEF’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN FWD’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most points to ELITE MID’s in L5.

Brisbane has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Brisbane has conceded the 5th-fewest points to KEY FWD’s in L5.
Brisbane has conceded the fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Brisbane has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to RUC’s in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

FREMANTLE vs CARLTON

MCG, 7.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 8 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Fremantle $1.90 favourites, 156.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

With Fyfe (shoulder) ruled out 60 minutes from bouncedown, the Dockers had no choice but to revert to Round 13’s rotations, and it was peculiar to see not one of them top the ton despite a victory against the Pies. Fremantle also lost Taberner (calf) early and given that being a replacement guy is the only thing that seems to motivate Lobb, he predictably fired up with 3 goals and 87 AF as the big banana up forward. At the other end of the ground, Ryan copped a double blow; not did Wilson return and take half of his juicy kick-ins, but he also got kicked clean in the head at one point. 86 AF was a good result, all things considered. Sean Darcy had his first reality check in a while with 64 AF, understandably fighting an uphill battle against a more experienced Grundy; Carlton’s likely De Koning/Casboult poses no such threat. Consistent roles elsewhere, although no tag for Serong (42 AF) this week. 

Cripps must have had a hangover from the contract extension celebrations, sitting in the negatives for most of the first term and ultimately managing just 60 AF without a tag. De Koning has responded well to solo duties in the past (70 average from 3 games without Pittonet last year), so it was somewhat surprising to see him falter with 55 AF with another 12 months of experience under his belt. Silvagni was his only back-up, so Carlton will want to rush Casboult back following his VFL suspension to help prop them up in that position. All eyes were on the fringe midfielders here and they didn’t disappoint – Kennedy pumped out another 93 AF from 48% CBA share, while Dow produced his first usable DFS score of the season with 77 AF in his 40% presence. Both of these could have been higher too – Murphy’s early calf injury brought in a defender as the medical sub in Newman (111 AF in just 65% TOG, if you don’t mind), which caused Docherty to slide up to a wing and that, in turn, bumped Ed Curnow back into more CBA’s than Carlton were probably planning for him. Consistent roles elsewhere, outside of the new role I flagged for Petrevski-Seton (64 AF) across half forward. 

TEAMSHEETS

Fremantle: Fyfe IN – Taberner OUT
Notable outs: Taberner, Hamling, Cox, Hughes, Chapman, Young. 

  • The Dockers will be going in a little thin up front – which means that Walters will play purely as a forward with Fyfe likely to come in a play a hybrid guts/third tall forward role.
  • Cerra/Brayshaw remain in heavy inside roles, but might have to cover some of the overlap on the wing from Acres/Bewley as full-timers.
  • Ryan’s ceiling still capped with Wilson taking over a big chunk of the kick-ins.

Carlton: Casboult, Williamson, Newman IN – Murphy, Docherty, Williams OUT
Notable outs: Setterfield, Docherty, Williams, Pittonet. 

  • Newman for Docherty, half-back L4L. Already saw what he can do with last week’s 111 AF in limited minutes as the medical sub, and gets a chance to do it full-time here without another couple of accumulators in Docherty/Williams across half back. Throw in the easy Dockers DvP back there, and Newman is in a great spot here at $11.3k.
  • Williamson for Williams, half back L4L. Has shown a fantasy ceiling at times, but not this year with scores of 37, 22 and 38 so far. In saying that, Williamson has had 3-4 really thirsty half-backs in the pecking order ahead of him in those games, and the crowd has been thinned here.
  • Casboult for Murphy in attack, which balances them up height-wise and gets Silvagni out of back-up ruck duties.
  • Didn’t mind Petrevski-Seton as a high half forward last week as far as the eye test went, so hopefully the fantasy points start to follow suit.
  • The Blues want to use Ed Curnow as more of a wingman but the in-game injuries didn’t allow it last week – Docherty being out should reset his CBA time to cameos only. Dow/Kennedy have upside with those CBA’s likely freeing up, but MID-only status is frustrating.
  • De Koning remains the #1 ruck, but hasn’t shown a ceiling to date, even in that role. A 60 from him grades out well in a value sense, but there’s probably better options available in the RUC slot on a 4-game slate.

TRENDS

Fremantle has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY DEF’s in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s in L5.
Fremantle has conceded the 4th-fewest points to MID’s in L5.

Carlton has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Carlton has conceded the most points to GEN FWD’s in L5.
Carlton has conceded the 3rd-most points to MID’s in L5.

HISTORY

 

 

HAWTHORN vs PORT ADELAIDE

Marvel, 7.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 8 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.33 favourites, 162.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Worpel IN, Shiels OUT as far as the CBA’s were concerned, with the veteran not receiving a single attendance in Round 15. Instead, Shiels found himself on a wing tasked with blanketing the tireless Whitfield, and he quickly learned how futile that is. The new role allowed Newcombe (68 AF) to maintain his CBA’s with 54% presence, and it signals a clear intention from Clarko to prioritise youth moving forward. Wingard received the dropped Cousins’ CBA’s before a hamstring injury ended his day early. Howe has finally grasped consistency as the top level with scores of 88, 82, 97 and 111 on the trot in a pure wing role, and he’s still cheap enough to consider moving forward – if you think it’s real. The Hawks got another strong game out of their ruck department, with the Ceglar/McEvoy timeshare resulting in scores of 82 AF and 101 AF respectively – McEvoy’s legacy as a genuine utility grows with every game he’s able to stay relevant as a forward. Life without Impey wasn’t so straightforward with Burgoyne out for most of this and Grainger-Barras on debut, but Jiath (76 AF) deep with Day (88 AF) and Scrimshaw (100 AF) given a license to roam up the ground looks like the status quo moving forward. Phillips (51 AF) experienced his first role reduction with Shiels/Howe ahead of him in the wing rotation, playing a similar wing/half forward split as Lachie Hunter was for the Bulldogs to start this season.

Travis Boak attracted a Hewett tag in this one, and Port went back to their early-season method of moving him out of the guts for stints (-28% CBA share) whenever this happens. Amon was happy to cover not only his attendances, but that of the injured Gray, with a 54% CBA boost – although his scoring (70 AF) didn’t quite follow the script. I was expecting Powell-Pepper (-1%) or Rozee (-21%) to crank up their midfield rotations, but it would appear that they were required to cover Gray’s forward reps more than anything else – forwards in Butters and Fantasia also being out injured definitely hurts in that regard. Houston was the only permanent wingman left standing and he didn’t disappoint with a classic 97 AF, while Bergman was happy to pick up the vacated wing role on the opposite side of the ground with 74 AF from 17 touches and 7 marks in the role that he was drafted in. Dylan Williams was a non-factor on debut with a goalless 32 AF, outscored by the medical sub Mayes in his 12% game-time as a forward. 

TEAMSHEETS

Hawthorn: Nash, Greaves, Burgoyne IN – Wingard, Day, Grainger-Barras OUT
Notable outs: Gunston, Wingard, Morrison, Day, Cousins, Grainger-Barras. 

  • Greaves/Burgoyne for Day/Grainger-Barras in defence.
  • Nash for Wingard in attack.
  • Midfield rotations look set with a structure change unlikely, with Newcombe (CBA’s) and Phillips (wing) to cover the leftovers from half forward.
  • The only thing I’m worried about structurally is Hawthorn giving Burgoyne a more, uhh, entertaining role to play (and for us to watch) than as a lockdown defender. Hawks are plenty tall in attack, so either O’Brien or Nash could be swung back into defence to unleash Silk up the ground.
  • Howe still under $11k as a pure wingman, but loses the DEF status.

Port Adelaide: Bonner, Mayes IN – Williams, Frederick OUT
Notable outs: Butters, Duursma, Gray, Rockliff, Hartlett. 

  • Rozee and Powell-Pepper were already playing heavy forward minutes, and with Williams being dropped on top of the injured Butters/Gray/Fantasia, they’ll likely have to play forward just as much, if not more.
  • That suggests that Amon is likely to play as a hybrid midfielder again, following last week’s season-high 69% CBA share.
  • Bonner/Mayes coming in gives the Port a logjam of outside/half-back types. I have Houston resetting himself across half-back, Bonner/Bergman playing full-time wing roles, and Mayes parking himself across half forward following last week’s heroics – but much of this is interchangeable.
  • Drew should see full CBA involvement once again, and he’s proving to be an underrated anchor as a salary saver in Port stacks this year.

TRENDS

Hawthorn has conceded the fewest points to GEN FWD’s post-bye.
Hawthorn has conceded the 5th-fewest points to MID’s post-bye.

Port has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN FWD’s in L5.
Port has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to ELITE MID’s in L5.
Port has conceded the 4th-fewest points to MID’s this year.

HISTORY

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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