BRISBANE vs GOLD COAST

Gabba, 7.10pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$50,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings
WEATHER: 17 degrees and clear, small chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Brisbane $1.28 favourites, 118.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Hamstring injuries to Fullarton and Andrews resulted in boosted TOG’s across the board for the Lions this week, so that’s the context behind those darker green patches in the table above. McInerney in particular copped the biggest boost, playing 89% TOG and taking 87% of the CBA’s without a recognised back-up and that allowed him to gather 72 points in a tough match-up with Grundy. McCathy’s suspension allowed Berry to sneak a few more CBA’s and the young bull has shown he doesn’t need much watering to thrive, scoring an equal team-high 95 AF. Rayner took his 5 CBA’s like clockwork. McStay had an interesting day – he was switched back once Andrews succumbed to his hamstring strain, after covering the back-up ruck role for Fullarton when he went down previously. Coleman was lively on debut playing further up the ground than I expected, and you’ll take a 59 from a base-priced rookie any day of the week. Consistent roles elsewhere.

Harbrow’s injury set off a chain reaction of role changes for the Suns in their last game before their Bye. Bowes returned to a half-back role, which left a lot of wing minutes to be covered by Weller, Anderson and now Miller. MacPherson seized the opportunity to sneak a few CBA’s but it didn’t do anything to jumpstart him out of a brutal form slump as he finished with just 31 AF. Ainsworth top-scored with 107 AF but did all his work off a HFF – he’d be an absolute weapon if he ever earned midfield minutes. Corbett and King both produced healthy DFS outings but it was more the result of preying on the lowly Roos than a lasting role/form boost. Consistent roles elsewhere.

TEAMSHEETS

Brisbane: Smith, Payne, McCarthy INBirchall, Andrews, Fullarton OUT

  • Payne replaces Andrews, key defender L4L.
  • Archie Smith replaces Fullarton, part-time ruckman L4L.
  • That leaves McCarthy to replace Birchall essentially, with Ah Chee moving up from a forward pocket to his early-season HBF role. 
  • The ruck split will be interesting here. In their 3 games together this year, Big O and Archie have run a 56/44 split, a 62/38 split and a 68/32 split. The Lions have shown a preference to play McInerney on more modest minutes than most primary ruckmen this year, hovering around the high 70’s in TOG. After last week’s solo effort with an early Fullarton injury (89% TOG, 87% ruck contests), I can see a more substantial role for Archie here than you might expect in a vacuum.
  • The last spot in the CBA mix is up for grabs, with both Berry and McCarthy having claims on that last 5-10 attendances. Could go either way but it’s more helpful for Berry in a DFS sense.

Notable outs: Ellis-Yolmen, Witherden, Birchall, Andrews, Martin.

Gold Coast: Unchanged

  • The Suns don’t change too much week-to-week and I don’t expect this to be an exception.
  • MacPherson’s CBA’s are far from secure and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to a pure high HF role here. He’s got a big score coming up at some point but how many 30’s and 40’s do we need to eat before we get it?
  • All eyes will be on Touk Miller and whether he heads to arch nemesis Zorko in a tagging capacity, or whether he defaults to recency bias with Neale. Whoever he targets is going to have a rough evening based on history (Neale 74 and Zorko 74, 55), so this is a good chance to hedge by making sure you don’t have both Neale and Zorko in any (or at least many) of your line-ups.

Notable outs: Rowell, Fiorini.

TRENDS

Brisbane conceded the 5th-most points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+5.0)
Brisbane conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+9.8)

Gold Coast conceded the 4th-least points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (-3.1)
Gold Coast conceded the 4th-least points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+3.9)

HISTORY

Neale 74, 108 (tagged by Miller)
Lyons – 158, 105
Zorko – 130, 75, 74, 55 (tagged by Miller)
Berry – 121, 87, 69, 119
Rich – 100, 107, 81
McCluggage – 75, 92, 97, 99

Swallow – 111, 93, 83, 82
Witts 109, 99, 88, 97 (all versus Martin)
Bowes – 98, 54, 82, 82
Miller 83, 100, 50, 89 (tagging jobs)

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Jarryd Lyons – M – $16,080 DS

The former Sun is your clear spend-up option here and should be targeted heavily in both Cash and GPP formats alike. While Neale and Zorko fight over the likely Touk tag, Lyons will be plodding along as normal – and normal for him is pretty damn good. Besides a 41-point disaster against the Saints a couple of rounds ago, Lyons has scored at least 81 in his last 6 games besides that and at least 76 in every other game this season.

Lyons keeps afloat the idea of a “revenge” game in the AFL, having scored 158 and 105 in his last two against the Suns (and averaging 103 against the Crows, while we’re at it). Make sure you’re exposed to his ceiling tonight. 

BEST VALUE: Lachie Weller – M/D – $10,480 DS 

Value is a very difficult thing to come by on this slate so we’re looking to stack underpriced premiums across the board to help build up incremental salary relief. Weller has certainly been down since a hot start to the season but he’s too cheap here for the midfield time he’s getting, at least for GPP’s. Even just a 60 would be a win at this price on a tough single slate, and he’s got 85-point upside. It’s not sexy, but the math says yes to Lachie.

BEST RUCK: Jarrod Witts – R – $12,380 DS 

As I covered in the Teamsheets section, McInerney might have reduced ruck time here which dampens his appeal, although I’m still interested with 4 scores of 72+ in his last 5 games at a relatively cheap price-tag of $10,700. He’ll certainly be popular with the masses.

I’m wondering if it’s better to pay up for Witts though. He’s still affordable, has two scores of 75+ in his last 3 and has outmuscled the Lions historically with scores of 109, 99, 88 and 97 – and that was with Stef Martin at the helm. 

You’ll need to have exposure to both if you’re multi-entering but I feel like going unders on Big O and overs on Witts is the correct tactical play.

BEST STAT: Jack Bowes – D – $11,470 DS 

Brisbane concedes the 2nd-lowest fantasy points overall this year so you have to pick your spots against them, with the only obvious DvP weakness being to DEF’s. Bowes will be back marshalling in defence this week and, like Lukosius ($11,770), has the ability to rack up a bunch of mark-kick combos in short bursts.

I’m predicting many DFS punters will opt to take the salary relief in the DEF slots tonight, which means that both these Suns young guns might be underowned compared to what they should be.

BEST RETHINK: Ben King – F – $6,480 DS

Ben King’s DFS expected output with Harris Andrews in the side is very different to Ben King’s expected output with Harrid Andrews missing. The Lions have replaced him with 2nd-gamer Jack Payne, so Brisbane’s normally hardened defence has just had a soft underbelly exposed. 

A hard fade has flipped into a GPP option here for me, especially if he can roll some of the confidence he would have gained from last week’s 67 against the Roos (6 marks and 2.4) into tonight’s Q-Clash.

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