SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
$500 USD on Draftstars ($15 entry, no multi-entry)

 

GWS vs HAWTHORN

MCG, 1.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 14 degrees and easing showers.
BOOKIES: GWS $1.61 favourites, 155.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

While the midfield group remained largely the same, a couple of winners and losers emerged from GWS’s decision to use de Boer as a midfield tagger (Walsh) rather than across half forward (Hall) from the week prior. While he lined up across a forward flank in both scenarios, his encroachment on the midfield rotations against the Blues was unavoidable. Youngster Tom Green (41 AF) copped the rough end of the stick with -27% CBA presence and a 17% drop in game clock. Ward received a 22% CBA boost on the flipside (but his total inside time was in line with fluctuations over the past month or so). Flynn and Briggs ran a 55/45 split in the ruck that capped both of their scores, but Briggs owners – at basement price – wouldn’t be too upset with the 62 AF he produced for them. We saw disappointing results from a Cumming/Ash/Perryman trio in defence earlier in the season with their overlapping skillsets, so Ash’s axing was a massive boon for Cumming – he scored a career-high 119 AF from 23 touches, 12 marks and 75% ownership of the Giants’ kick-ins. Himmelberg started up forward as a key tall but once again spent spurts in defence, particularly late in quarters as an extra parked a kick behind the play. All other roles as expected, with Whitfield (defensive wing), Kennedy (wing), Reid (back pocket), Lloyd (forward pocket) and Haynes (intercept defender) all lining up as they did in Round 13. 

Jai Newcombe (27 AF) truthers can’t blame Clarko for the rookie’s lack of scoring this week, because the role was still there with 56% CBA presence – he just couldn’t get near the oval-shaped leather thing. Worpel’s suspension opened the door for Shiels to resume an inside midfield role, but ironically his fantasy prospects worsened as his CBA’s went up as he was used to play a defensive role on Bomber accumulator Zach Merrett. Ceglar had the #1 ruck role again but was much more Ceglary this week with 59 AF, although McEvoy continues to impress in his back-up role as a key forward with 81 AF. Hawthorn utilised their fringe players in approximate versions of what we expected – Howe (97 AF) was busy on a wing, Cousins (74 AF) made the most of a MID/FWD rotation, Wingard (72 AF) was a pure forward outside of a couple of cameos and Bramble pushed Moore (forward pocket) out of a high half forward gig on debut.  

TEAMSHEETS

GWS: Daniels IN – Green OUT
Notable outs: Coniglio, Green, Hogan, Taylor. 

  • Daniels was covering the leftover wing time earlier this year and potentially gets that role again – Kelly has had that responsibility lately, but Green’s axing frees up the midfield time for him to play a full-time inside role if needed.
  • The other option is de Boer sliding back into significant CBA involvement. He’s likely to tag Tom Mitchell around the ground at a minimum, but given that the bull does his best work on the inside, I wouldn’t be surprised to see de Boer tag from the guts rather than off a half forward flank.
  • Flynn and Briggs to run another dirty ruck split. Caps both their ceilings, but at least Briggs is still cheap enough to pick as a ruck punt if required.
  • Cumming is doing great things as a distributor, but Haynes as an interceptor is getting the job done too. Ash’s continued absence allows both to flourish, although look out for an eventual power struggle from Perryman as he builds match fitness.

Hawthorn: Grainger-Barras, Worpel, Hartigan IN – Cousins, Impey, Burgoyne OUT
Notable outs: Gunston, Lewis, Reeves, Impey, Burgoyne. 

  • Worpel for Cousins in the midfield group, and he probably gets the nod ahead of Shiels too. Don’t be surprised to see Shiels play more of an outside role, while full-time inside time for Newcombe is unlikely with everyone else fit in the guts.
  • Grainger-Barras/Hartigan for Burgoyne/Impey in defence.
  • Wouldn’t expect too much from Grainger-Barras – he’s an interceptor at VFL level, but these roles rarely translate to the AFL on debut.
  • Careful with Tom Mitchell’s exposures – he looks destined for a date with de Boer.

TRENDS

GWS has conceded the fewest points to MID’s in L5.
GWS has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to MID’s in L5.
GWS has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s in L5. 

Hawthorn has conceded the most points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Hawthorn has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s this year.
Hawthorn has conceded the most points to ELITE MID’s this year. 

HISTORY

 

 

WEST COAST vs WESTERN BULLDOGS

Optus Stadium, 3.20pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$12,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 14 degrees and rain.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.68 favourites, 151.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

West Coast are about to welcome back a quartet of top-tier players that includes Shuey and Kelly, so combined with the Bye reset, all of Round 13’s KPI’s are subject to change. Oscar Allen was designated back-up ruck duties and was solid with 69 AF, but more importantly, it still allowed Naitanui to unlock his best work as a solo ruckman with 109 AF. West Coast are often wary of using Allen too much in the ruck given that they obviously have a minutes cap for NicNat, but if he’s going to play this well (lowest score of 81 in last 5) without a Williams/Vardy type as a back-up, it’ll be hard for the Eagles to resist playing the extra runner. Luke Edwards (wing) and Foley (half back) both scored 90’s but could be amongst the selection casualties, as could fellow youngster Harry Edwards despite his impressive fortnight as an lockdown defender as a default and an interceptor when allowed. The Eagles rarely mix things up unless they need to, so roles for Duggan (wing), Langdon (78 AF as a high half forward), and Jones (forward pocket) were easy enough to isolate. 

The Bulldogs liked what their pre-bye Caleb Daniel shift did for their midfield rotations, so they essentially copy-pasted that structure with the Helmet playing a 50-50 wing/guts role. Stef Martin only got through a half in Round 12 but didn’t even last until bouncedown this time around, scratching himself an hour out and forced English into the #1 ruck role. Incredibly, despite everything we preach with the importance of solo rucking and the inherent evil of timeshares, he was actually worse in DFS as a ruckman than as a key forward. Bruce assumed back-up duties. Toby McLean was the late inclusion with his first game since doing an ACL, and didn’t skip a beat with 81 AF as a half forward; if only his price was a little more generous. Things were relatively consistent from there; Hunter (103 AF) and Bailey Smith (58 AF) are pure wingmen, Roarke Smith and Johannisen are still being squeezed into small forward roles and Dale is still the primary kick-in defender – although a last quarter switch into attack needs to be tracked, but can probably be put down to Naughton being subbed out with a rib issue.

TEAMSHEETS

West Coast: Shuey, Kelly, McGovern, Sheppard, Petruccelle IN – Foley, Langdon, Nelson, Jones, H Edwards OUT
Notable outs: Witherden, Williams, Vardy. 

  • West Coast’s structures are as rigid as they come, so expecting very few surprises despite the 5 changes.
  • Luke Edwards is the sole surviving rookie Eagle and probably has to survive more on half forward sustenance than the wing time he received in Round 13 (where he scored a 90).
  • Expecting a move back to defense for Duggan with Kelly/Shuey rejoining the midfield group.

Bulldogs: Richards, Garcia IN – Crozier, R Smith OUT
Notable outs: Dunkley, Treloar, Martin, Sweet, Wood. 

  • The 7th defender for the Bulldogs holds the key to their structure, with Daniel and the incoming Ed Richards vying for the honour. I’ve gone with Richards given that a) he won selection by dominating in the VFL across half back and b) Caleb has looked solid as a hybrid midfielder the past fortnight.
  • Garcia returns to the side following an unlucky concussion game on debut, and the best I can give him is a half forward/guts rotation. Think Schoenberg at the Crows – Garcia is right at the bottom of the totem pole in Footscray’s midfield and his scoring will likely reflect that.
  • McLean was busy in his return from an ACL injury, but I’m not ready to trust him with significant midfield time just yet, and especially not at that price. In saying that, the wet weather forecast helps his prospects.
  • English to solo ruck, but comes up against an oppressive Naitanui regime.

TRENDS

West Coast has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
West Coast has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to RUC’s this year. 

Bulldogs have conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY FWD’s in L5.
Bulldogs have conceded the fewest points to MID’s this year.
Bulldogs have conceded the fewest points to ELITE MID’s this year. 

HISTORY

 

 

CARLTON vs ADELAIDE

Marvel, 4.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 13 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Carlton $1.50 favourites, 172.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Young Talent Time is hard to commit to when you can smell blood in the water, so it’s understandable that the Blues went back to their tried-and-tested crew when they got within 2 goals of the Giants early in the final quarter. Dow (54% CBA share) and Kennedy (43% CBA share) had been used extensively to that point, but Ed Curnow (+29%, in from a wing) was leaned on heavily late. Walsh copped a de Boer tag and struggled mightily, especially early, but at least showed signs of maturity by doubling his 3Q time score (27 AF) in the final term. Pittonet showed promise with another improved score (86 AF) in Carlton’s awkward ruck timeshare, so an ankle injury that required surgery couldn’t have been more untimely for Mr Worldwide. For us in fantasyland though – De Koning, come on down! Docherty (91 AF) started on the wing and ranged back in a sweeping role, but an injury to Parks sent him back to defence for real in the final quarter. Consistent roles elsewhere, with Stocker (half back), Williams (half back), Kennedy (half forward/guts rotation) and Martin (half forward with CBA cameos) the other positions of note.

Adelaide had a few different directions they could have gone with O’Connor’s vacated CBA’s. Schoenberg (+48%) was the way they went, although it’s strange that they didn’t split his time with Sam Berry (0%) as they’ve done so far this year. It was the usual suspects that pushed the Crows over the top of the Saints with Keays (122), Laird (121) and Seedsman (117, wing) all dominating, and one thing that you can always count on with Adelaide is a relatively predictable fantasy scoring hierarchy – it reminds me of the Brisbane side from 5-6 years ago where Rockliff, Beams, Zorko and Stef Martin were the top scorers every single week. O’Brien can almost be thrown into that group at this point, having another strong game after overcoming back issues from earlier in the year – he’s now scored 97, 111 and 91 on the trot. Worrell was super quiet in his debut down back, and the Crows looked a bit weak on the outside overall with Sholl axed, Hamill (half back) and Mackay (half forward/wing) having hardly any influence and even Brodie Smith looked rusty with a move up to a wing from his regular distributor role in defence. One interesting aspect of Adelaide’s win, from a fantasy perspective, was veteran Rory Sloane being moved to cool a fast-starting Jack Steele – being asked to do these kinds of odd jobs has been Keays’ big downside in the past, so his floor gets a massive boost if the defensive midfield roles are suddenly leapfrogging him. 

TEAMSHEETS

Carlton: Plowman, Murphy, Petrevski-Seton, Newnes IN – Parks, Pittonet, Newman, Fisher OUT
Notable outs: Pittonet, Newman. 

  • Plowman for Parks, lockdown defender L4L.
  • Murphy for Fisher, half forward L4L.
  • Newnes (wing) for Newman (half back), which would shift Docherty back to defence.
  • That leaves Petrevski-Seton for Pittonet, in a new half forward role that he was sent but to the VFL to practice.
  • De Koning slides into the midfield as a solo ruckman. Extremely smashable at $7.5k – this is what we’ve been waiting for, folks.
  • Ed Curnow’s role is up for debate, but I think they opt to use him as wingman moving forward – especially with Dow and Kennedy both begging for as many CBA’s as they can grab.  Just know that’s there’s a very real scenario where Curnow plays in the guts, Docherty remains on the wing and Petrevski-Seton slips into defence as normal.

Adelaide: Brown, Sholl IN – McPherson, Worrell OUT
Notable outs: Crouch, Lynch, Talia. 

  • Brown for McPherson, lockdown defender L4L.
  • Sholl has completed his “rest”, so I like him on a wing with Hamill sliding back to defence to replace the outgoing Worrell.

TRENDS

Carlton has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Carlton has conceded the most points to GEN FWD’s in L5.
Carlton has conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s in L5. 

Adelaide has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY DEF’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN FWD’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s in L5.
Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most points to ELITE MID’s in L5. 

HISTORY

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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