RICHMOND vs FREMANTLE
Metricon, 7.10pm AEST
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and clear (dewy Queensland night game).
BOOKIES: Richmond $1.14 favourites, 121.5 over/under.
CBA’s & ROLES
Very consistent mix from the Tigers this week. The only notable changes were the inclusions; Nankervis slipped into a 33/67 timeshare with Soldo, while debutant Thomson Dow had a nibble at the CBA’s in a surprisingly high amount of game-time. That means that Graham hung around for some inside midfield time, which isn’t a given by any stretch. Houli was back to his promiscuous self after a couple of injury-affected outings, scoring 98 from 23 touches. Nankervis scored 74 but it was more of an upswing than anything else – he’s not going to return value if he only manages 9 hitouts, because he’s not going to kick a snag and lay 6+ tackles a game. McIntosh had to slide back to cover Grimes’ hamstring injury, which simultaneously killed his output but allowed both Lambert and Dow to play more wing minutes than probably planned.
Walters made his first appearances in the guts since Round 8, which predictably resulted in drops for both Fyfe (-31%) and Brayshaw (-27%). The latter (unlike his brother) has shown he can actually score off a wing, so it’s not a huge worry – Fyfe’s ceiling is the more concerning aspect, without overreacting to a down game with a de Boer tag. The ruck has been super consistent over the last month for the Dockers with a weekly 65/35 split for Darcy/Lobb – the problem is that neither of them are scoring fantasy points just as consistently. You can forget about Blakely in DFS outside of anything but the most aggressive of GPP darts – 60% TOG and half a midfield role is cancerous for his output. The biggest surprise for me was a season-high 81% CBA presence for Mundy, who scored 99 with the increased midfield time – this is very much worth tracking at sub-$13k on Draftstars. Bewley (HFF/wing) and Brayshaw (guts/wing) joined Aish and Cerra in the wing rotation. Hill backed up last week’s 12 AF with another 20 AF dud… a slate-breaking effort is in him somewhere, but how many turds will we have to endure before we see it?
Richmond: Higgins, Broad IN – Grimes, Lambert OUT
- Broad for Grimes, tall defender L4L.
- Higgins for Lambert, HFF/wing L4L.
- Higgins’ role affects Dow, with a HFF slot and a wing spot to be shared between them.
- McIntosh moves back up to a wing with Broad able to cover Grimes this week. He was scoring heavily before the abrupt role change (70, 81, 69), so this is a good spot to zig while every one zags in response to last week’s 21.
- Inside time for Graham likely again, so definitely worth a long look at his modest price.
- No reason to expect anything other than another 67/33 split for Soldo/Nank.
Notable outs: Grimes, Lambert, Edwards, Astbury, Caddy, Prestia.
Fremantle: Acres, Hogan, Frederick IN – Bewley, Blakely, Henry OUT
- Frederick replaces Henry, permanent forward L4L.
- Acres replaces Bewley in the wing rotation; although that goes from a part-time gig to a full-timer with Brayshaw likely to soak up the inside minutes vacated by Blakely.
- Hogan comes in to fill the forward time in that transaction.
- As always, the splits of Fremantle’s veterans are volatile. Fyfe, Walters and Mundy can all be actively rested through limited TOG or forward roles, which ruins their consistency in DFS. On the flipside, it keeps their salaries modest so all look like excellent GPP picks on any given slate.
- For what it’s worth, Fremantle’s “officially” named Teamsheets looks spot on and extremely balanced with a FWD, wing, guts and DEF player named on the pine. Rare these days!
Notable outs: Bewley, Blakely, Young.
Richmond has conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (-4.0)
Richmond has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+16.2)
Richmond has conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-6.3)
Richmond has conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (+10.7)
Fremantle has conceded the least points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (-0.2)
Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-most points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (+7.6)
Houli – 113, 90, 128
Bolton – 101
McIntosh – 95, 95
Martin – 81, 93, 124, 90
Lambert – 86, 104, 108
Cotchin – DNP, DNP, 53, 94 (tagged by Sutcliffe, Blakely)
Fyfe – 111, 128, 95
BEST PICK: Andrew Brayshaw – M – $15,050 DS
As is always the case with Richmond games, there’s a distinct lack of ceiling on this slate – so you need to identify and target those who can hit triple figures. While the entire Richmond club as a whole have produced just 3 scores over 100 this year, Brayshaw himself has scored over 96 in 4 of his past 6 games.
Add in the MID’s against Richmond trend and his handy MID/FWD status, and the Better Brayshaw should be very prevalent in your crunches tonight.
BEST VALUE: Jack Graham – M – $9,620 DS
There is a HEAP of value on this slate between the $10k and $13k marks and I could’ve covered almost any of them here, but I’ll look a little bit cheaper instead. Graham remained part of the midfield mix last week and Lambert’s hamstring injury only increases his chances of inside time, where his average jumps from 48 per game to 60 this season.
Graham’s averaged 65 over his last 3 games since returning to the side and that’s easily enough to find himself amongst a winning line-up on a single-game slate, let alone his 3 scores of 74+ amongst his last 6. If he can manage to combine his ball-winning ability (21 touches over last 2) and tackling rate (8 tackles over the 3 games before that) then we’ve got a slate-breaker on our hands.
BEST RUCK: Sean Darcy – R – $8,720 DS
The ruck is easily the most uninspirational position on this slate, so I’d be spreading Soldo, Nankervis and Darcy around my line-ups for exposure to whichever guy randomly upswings – this isn’t the line to take a stand on this slate, in my opinion. I haven’t included Lobb here because he’s playing mainly up forward and Richmond has an elite defense, but his ceiling is definitely high enough to justify a couple of darts.
For Cash, I don’t mind Darcy despite scores of 43 and 40 in full games in his last 2, for a couple of reasons. For one, he’s the cheapest one available and I think the cash is better spent with more confidence elsewhere. Secondly, being a solo ruck (essentially) always helps with a player’s floor, and I think he’s hit that in the last fortnight with 0 tackles in both games. Given that he was averaging 3.5 in the 4 games previous, a regression to the mean there results in much better output without necessarily “playing” better.
BEST STAT: David Mundy – M – $12,740 DS
He’s flown under the radar a bit but scores of 94, 81, 85 and 99 amongst Mundy’s last 5 games is as good as anyone you’ll see for less than $13,000 on any slate. With a season-high 81% CBA presence last week, Fremantle are clearly happy with him plugging away in the guts despite being in a position to prioritise youth, and the hybrid roles of Fyfe and Walters always helps in terms of his midfield time too.
Like with Brayshaw, Mundy is one of the crew of Fremantle midfielders (Cerra, Aish, Acres, Serong) that could cash in on the MID’s vs Richmond trend, and this is one of the few occasions where the DvP is so strong that you could feel comfortable stacking them all regardless of the outcome of the game.
BEST RETHINK: Riewoldt ($8,630) & Lynch ($8,250)
This one’s pretty simple – Fremantle are missing their 2-3 best key defenders and the one guy they have dominating back there (Ryan) is under an injury cloud of his own after a tumble onto his hip last week. This is simply leveraging the talent difference between Riewoldt/Lynch and their direct opponents, and with Richmond as $1.14 favourites they’ll likely have enough supply to exploit their match-ups.
It’s highly likely one of these two players feature in the winning line-up on a single-game slate like this, so feel free to crank up your exposures to them (although try and only pick one per line-up, for obvious anti-correlation reasons).