BRISBANE vs GEELONG

Gabba, 7.30pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$2,000 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 4 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and cloudy, high humidity.
BOOKIES: Brisbane $1.68 favourites, 162.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The midfield functioned as expected for the Lions with Zorko out through suspension, outside of a few cameos for Mitch Robinson (+21% CBA presence) that probably should’ve gone to the Bailey/Robertson/Mathieson half forward logjam at 32% presence. Neale finally looked like his Brownlow-winning self – especially in the second half, where he won 75 of his 111 hard-earned fantasy points. The Roos were surprisingly plucky until the final stages of this game so the Lions didn’t have the ball pinging around their forward line as much as we expected, hurting the scoring of not only Daniher (60), Cameron (49) and Hipwood (55), but also Dev Robertson and the half forward line he’s chained to in capped minutes. All other roles as expected, which has been a staple of a very settled Brisbane side this year.

Geelong went full Chris Scott this week, making a structure-breaking change an hour before bouncedown. Henderson exited for Narkle, which resulted in O’Connor dropping out of his midfield tagging role with a switch into defence. Given that it solved their obvious midfield squeeze with Cam Guthrie (77% CBA presence) returning, one has to suspect that, once again, Geelong are playing silly buggers with how they name their Teamsheets – this reeks of Ratugolea-gate from earlier in the season. What they obviously didn’t count on was Mitch Duncan injuring his PCL 10 minutes into the game, turning what looked like being an evening spent mostly as a forward for Parfitt (98 AF) into a healthy midfield role. Things got a little loopy after that; Narkle was given just 54% game-time as a starter (to Higgins’ 72% as the medical sub, but he was at least utilised as an inside midfielder for the vast majority of that limited ground time), with Blicavs instead attending 6 CBA’s as a midfielder alongside Ratugolea in the ruck while Dangerfield spent just 40% of his game as an onballer. Fair to say that there was enough chaos going on here to take Geelong’s midfield rotations with a truckload of salt. Thankfully, outside of O’Connor sliding back to defence, the non-midfield roles were unchanged.

TEAMSHEETS

Brisbane: Zorko IN – Mathieson OUT
Notable outs: J Berry, Mathieson, Lester, Gardiner.

  • You can take this one to the bank. Only variable is who nudges ahead in the CBA stakes out of Bailey and Robertson.

Geelong: Henderson, Higgins IN – Duncan, Narkle OUT
Notable outs: Duncan, Narkle, Stanley. 

  • So we’re basically back to last week’s PLANNED structure for Geelong, with Higgins taking the place of Duncan.
  • Given that Duncan has been playing more of a high half forward than a wing role this season (I’ve included him as a wingman in these Teamsheets for simplicity’s sake, given that he scores like a really good one) while Blicavs covers that leftover wing time in his unique ruck role, I can see Higgins slotting into that position. Ceiling is nowhere near as high as the man he’s replacing, but will have the license to roam up onto a wing this week, as opposed to the Forward 50 role. There’s upside here.
  • O’Connor steps back into a tagging role with the extra defender behind him. Destined for Neale with the Cats targeting inside ball-winners with that stopping role so far this year.
  • Menegola had shown over a long period that he enjoys a step up in responsibility in that midfield. Scored 111 AF last week with the Cats down a midfield rotation, and gets to go to work on a wing here without Duncan ahead of him.
  • I was down on Parfitt last week with the midfield squeeze, but the omissions of Duncan and Narkle means that no longer exists. Continue to parlay his services in the FWD slot.
  • Expecting Dangerfield to slowly ramp up his KPI’s as he builds match fitness. So while his 78% game-time and 31% CBA share should both increase, but I don’t see it being a huge jump, and is it enough to make up for his exorbitant $14,220 price-tag? A ceiling game is coming, but I’m not sure it’s as soon as this week.

TRENDS

Brisbane has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Brisbane has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.

Geelong has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the fewest points to KEY FWD’s in L5.
Geelong has conceded the fewest points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to MID’s this year.

HISTORY

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Jarryd Lyons – M – $16,000 DS

There’s no better way to spend up on this slate than the ultra-consistent Lyons, or at least to anchor your cash line-up with a guaranteed total. With just 1 score under 95 all season – a horrible 85-point effort against the Giants – as well as 4 scores over 130, you’re getting the best of both worlds with Lyons

With Neale the hot favourite to be tagged by Geelong stopper Mark O’Connor, the criminally underrated Lyons will be allowed to ply his trade in the thick of the action as per usual. He was Brisbane’s top-scorer in Round 2 against the Cats with 99 AF and will likely be so again on Thursday evening, with a home ground advantage hopefully extending Brisbane’s combined fantasy output this time around.

However, finding the cash to afford his services is the only variable left to solve for…

BEST VALUE: Deven Robertson – M – $8,620 DS 

Fringe Lions midfielder Deven Robertson could help you find that Lyons money, and he looks like the sole “reliable” option for salary relief here. While Zac Bailey ($11,160 M/F) has the edge on him in recent scoring (back-to-back 99’s are hard to ignore), a lot of Bailey’s scoring over the past 5 weeks have come from some upswings in front of goal with two bags of 4 snags in that time. Robertson has actually been receiving more midfield time in that period at 48% CBA presence to Zac’s 29%, including a 48% to 17% edge the last time (and only time in the past 2 months) that Brisbane had both Neale and Zorko buzzing around in the same side.

I’m not saying that Bailey will be poor this Thursday night – he’s actually been playing out of his mind lately – but more so that Robertson is a bargain at $2.5k cheaper with the same, if not more, CBA nourishment headed his way this weekend. 

BEST RUCK: Mark Blicavs – R – $11,470 DS

Blicavs is a defender playing as a ruckman who scales like a midfielder, and that makes it hard to project his scoring week-to-week. Is he going to be another solid 70 for us, or is he going to pull out one of those 100-point specials where the Blitz seemingly can’t get away from the footy? With scores of 90 and 129 in his only two games this year without Duncan – at least, while playing as a ruckman – the big picture becomes a little clearer for the AFL’s premier utility. 

BEST STAT: Shaun Higgins – F – $10,930 DS 

As I mentioned in the Teamsheets section above, Higgins looks primed for a high half forward role this Thursday night – Chris Scott hinted as much when talking about why Narkle and Jordan Clark haven’t been chosen to fill Duncan’s unique role on the outside. While I’m very wary of his output as a small forward, the classy veteran showed during Duncan’s last stint on the sidelines that he can step up as a ball-winner, scoring 115 and 120 roaming up the ground in Rounds 10 & 11. While I’m not expecting those gaudy numbers here, I’m certainly optimistic he’ll gather a lot more than the 43 and 46 from his past fortnight of action. 

Duncan leaves a gaping hole in Geelong’s midfield machine, so you can throw a couple of other accumulatory Cats into the mix of beneficiaries. Joel Selwood ($13,340) has scored 106, 98, 134 and 104 in his four games without Duncan (or in games where he was injured early on) this season, while the inconsistent Sam Menegola stepped up with 111 and 94 in two of those last three such games. 

BEST RETHINK: Tom Stewart – D – $13,950 DS

For Tom Stewart to play as well as he did last week – essentially out-of-his-mind well with the most Coaches Votes and a record-tying 10 intercept marks – and to only walk away with 121 AF highlights exactly why you should be pivoting elsewhere in GPP’s. 

I’ll be looking at better ways to spend my $14k than on Stewart and his many red flagshe’s scored over 120 on just 5 occasions over his 99-game career, against a tough team like Brisbane who ranks 2nd-hardest for General Defenders to score against this season, on a greasy Gabba deck, at night, and immediately following the avalanche of media attention from his Round 14 showcase.

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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