SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)

 

CARLTON vs COLLINGWOOD

Gabba, 3.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 30 max)
WEATHER: 21 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Collingwood $1.80 favourites, 118.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

While he wasn’t as prevalent as Round 12, Murphy hung onto enough CBA’s (47%) to return a juicy 90 AF score as DFS chalk. The past 2 weeks are the most CBA’s he’s been gifted since Round 2, but it’s worth mentioning that both have come without Kennedy in the mix (he played in Round 12 but was carrying a niggle apparently and didn’t feature at a single centre bounce). De Koning (67%) and Pittonet (33%) had a very interesting CBA split, but overall ruck contests were shared almost 50-50. Cripps didn’t muck around with his usual forward stint this week, which allowed him to manufacture 95 AF with a CBA Rate of 1.07. Gibbons scored a slate-breaking 95 AF but it was a simple upswing in a forward pocket – no role change for him sadly. Same goes for Fisher with his 83 AF in the other pocket, and we might as well throw McKay’s 79 in that basket too. Martin (HFF), Newnes (HFF/wing), Cottrell (HFF/wing) and Walsh (pure wing) were the other roles of note.

Greenwood filled Wills’ role as expected, although he was understandably managed (being his first game from an ACL) with 68% TOG in a HFF/guts rotation. Sidebottom picked up the rest of the slack, potentially milked for more CBA’s with than usual Collingwood aware that it would be his last game for the foreseeable future with a kid on the way. The rest of the inside mix was relatively consistent, outside of a sharp 16% TOG drop for Grundy with both Cox and Cameron squeezed into the same side. Hoskin-Elliott was released up the ground with those 2 marking options in attack, hitting value with 86 AF in a pure wing role. Phillips was relegated to a forward pocket to allow it, which is cancer for his scoring – the 48 AF was his first score under 70 in a month. Daicos kept his wing role, with Sidebottom filling the remaining rotations. Mayne lined up on a HFF but had a license to hunt the pill all over the ground, with the end result being that he looked essentially like an extra wingman. Appleby (forward pocket), Varcoe (HBF) and Elliott (guts/forward pocket) were the other roles of note.

TEAMSHEETS

Carlton: Polson, Dow IN – Petrevski-Seton, Cottrell OUT

  • Polson replaces SPS, half-back L4L. He’s been playing half-back at Reserves level for Carlton this year, so you can lock this one in – he’s very much worth a look at $5k as a FWD on Draftstars if he’s going to have access to the DEF’s vs Pies trend.
  • Dow replaces Cottrell in the side, and given that he’s earned his spot with back-to-back BOG’s as an inside midfielder in Carlton’s scratchies, I suspect that he gets a nibble at the CBA’s this week. Murphy back to a HFF would let him in, otherwise he’ll have to settle for a half forward role (which he played in his only game in 2020, all the way back in Round 1). $6,430 is a very achievable price-tag for Dow in terms of reaching value, so make sure you have some exposure (but treat him like a Chayce Jones or an LDU).
  • Do Carlton return to more of a sheriff/deputy relationship in the ruck against Grundy? De Koning and Pittonet have been  roughly 50-50 in their 2 games together so far, but a lot of that was injury-related. Hard to pick either with the match-up either way though.

Notable outs: McGovern, Marchbank, Kennedy, SPS. 

Collingwood: Stephenson, Mihocek, C Brown, T Brown, Quaynor IN – Appleby, Greenwood, Sidebottom, Ruscoe, Varcoe OUT

  • Mihocek replaces Ruscoe, 3rd tall forward L4L.
  • Quaynor replaces Varcoe, HBF L4L.
  • Stephenson replaces Appleby, deep forward L4L.
  • Callum Brown probably replaces Greenwood in his HFF/guts rotation, with his brother Tyler coming in for Sidebottom and playing up forward to allow one or both of Mayne and Phillips to sneak up onto a wing. Picking the unlucky one out of Daicos, Phillips, Mayne and Hoskin-Elliott that misses out of wing time will be crucial for their DFS prospects.
  • It’s a packed forward line and Collingwood have 16 CBA’s to fill from last week, so wouldn’t be surprised to see Elliott play heavy inside MID minutes, rather than just taking the CBA’s before pushing forward.
  • One option out of left field – Crisp promoted into the midfield kills 2 birds with 1 stone. Mayne could cover him in defence (which solves the wing dilemma), and he could fill a fair chunk of CBA’s for the Pies with all of De Goey, Treloar, Sidebottom, Wills and Sier missing.
  • Careful with your Grundy exposures – his TOG was very low last week with both Cameron and Cox in the side.

Notable outs: Sidebottom, Treloar, De Goey, Sier, Howe, Reid, Greenwood. 

TRENDS

Carlton has conceded the least points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-6.2)

Collingwood has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+7.7)
Collingwood has conceded the most points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+21.9)
Collingwood has conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (+9.7)
Collingwood has conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s this year (-2.0)

HISTORY

Cripps 115, 146, 89 (tagged by Wills)
Murphy – 110, DNP, 139
E Curnow96, 77, 103 (no tagging jobs)

Grundy149, 103, 141 (all vs Kreuzer)
Phillips – 123, 107, 97
Crisp – 105, 98, 115
Pendlebury – 90, 101, 114
Adams – DNP, 80, 81

 

GOLD COAST vs NORTH MELBOURNE

Metricon, 6.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$25,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 50 max)
WEATHER: 17 degrees and clear
BOOKIES: Gold Coast $1.55 favourites, 120.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Swallow returned from his rest and “spoiled” the tight CBA core for the Gold Coast. He had a 53% presence (which is his lowest post-Rowell figure) as the Suns seem hell-bent on keeping Anderson (a season-high 40% presence) in the mix – but it came at the expense of his wing time, rotating through a HFF instead. The strain was felt across the board – Miller and Greenwood both suffered drops, while Weller (-28%) was the most affected as he was asked to cover part of Anderson’s vacated wing time. Bowes was the man who covered the lion’s share of it though, scoring 78 from 20 touches in his first game up the ground this season. That left Lukosius as the sole distributor off half-back and he responded to the extra responsibility with a team-high 87 AF. Ainsworth (HFF), Powell (back pocket), Flanders (HFF), Lemmens (forward pocket), and Corbett (permanent forward) were the other roles of note.

Same mix, different splits for the rebuilding Roos. LDU was the big winner with a +30% in CBA presence, with Simpkin (-26%) unlucky going the other way. Higgins remains on a wing to facilitate the youth policy, but is playing it very much like Whitfield does – dropping back to pick up cheapies and kick-start switches. He’s scored 90 and 100 in the past fortnight through that method, so his lack of CBA’s is by no means a DFS death sentence – he just scales differently now. Anderson’s 119 and 113 in the same time frame is an example of the upside of giving the kids the opportunity in the guts. McDonald continues his break-out year as a backman, cashing in on the DEF’s vs Collingwood trend with a slate-breaking 121 AF. Scott scored 76 AF with an upswing from a heavily-weighted forward role. Hosie (HFF), Walker (key defender), Murphy (wing), and Ahern (HFF) were the other roles of note.

TEAMSHEETS

Gold Coast: Sexton, MacPherson IN – Lemmens, Harbrow OUT

  • Sexton replaces Lemmens, forward pocket L4L.
  • That leaves MacPherson for Harbrow, which involves Bowes going back into defence, Anderson onto a wing and MacPherson sliding into the newly vacated HFF position.
  • Gold Coast keep juicing up Anderson’s CBA’s, so Weller and Anderson will basically swap through that wing in their hybrid guts/wing roles. Weller has had a rough DFS month that has roughly followed his decline in CBA’s, so take care with his exposures.

Notable outs: Rowell. 

North Melbourne: Hall, Daw IN – Mahony, Xerri OUT

  • Daw replaces Xerri as the pinch-hitting ruckman and averages about 20% of ruck contests attended this year. This isn’t great news for Goldstein, who has seen his output decrease along with his ruck time lately – he averaged 92 AF from 94% of ruck contests over the first 8 games this year, but that’s down to 73 AF from his 78% ruckshare over his last 5.
  • Hall replaces Mahony, small forward L4L. Like Higgins, significant CBA’s is probably out of the question for Hall as the Roos turn to youth, so minutes on a wing (potentially at the expense of Murphy) is his best bet for midfield time – and the possibility of a classic Hall ceiling game in DFS.
  • LDU will get midfield time again here, but his price is starting to creep up.

Notable outs: Ziebell, Cunnington, Brown, Macmillan, Xerri. 

TRENDS

Gold Coast has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (+9.2)
Gold Coast has conceded the 5th-most points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (+10.1)
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (+15.2)

North has conceded the 3rd-least points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+2.5)

HISTORY

Witts – 89, 124, 140
Weller95, 87 (HBF roles)
Swallow – 84, 54, 111 (tagged by Jacobs)

Goldstein – 80, 132, 91
Dumont – 90, 105, 88
Higgins – INJ, 75, 87 (tagged by Sexton)

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