SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)

 

PORT ADELAIDE vs SYDNEY

Adelaide Oval, 1.45pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 22 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.15 favourites, 121.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Pretty standard stuff from Port this week, especially due to the lack of ruck options with Ladhams suspended; Lycett solo rucking with Westhoff as his back-up was a formality. The only notable difference in the CBA’s was the halving of Gray’s midfield time, although this is well within swings for Port’s veterans and doesn’t necessarily reflect a lasting role change. Mayes moved up to a wing as expected with the inclusions of Bonner and Lienert, but didn’t take his chance with a quiet 52 AF. All other roles as expected.

The surprise return of JPK was a more of a soft opening, attending just 38% of CBA’s in his limited 65% TOG. Expect that to ramp up in the coming weeks. The midfield time was surrendered by committee, with all of Rowbottom, Florent and Papley suffering drops – Papley’s CBA’s are the most under threat as JPK’s match fitness builds. Blakey still had his cameos off a wing and looks much more palatable as a DFS option when he plays up the ground. Dawson was back in defence with the Ins and Outs causing a restructure, with Hayward (deep) and Thurlow (high HF) remaining in attack. 

TEAMSHEETS

Port Adelaide: Sutcliffe, Rozee, Burton, Marshall, Duursma INWoodcock, Lienert, Georgiades, Mayes, Motlop OUT

  • Burton replaces Lienert, tall defender L4L.
  • Rozee replaces Woodcock, small forward L4L. 
  • Marshall replaces Georgiades, 3rd tall forward L4L.
  • Duursma replaces Mayes, wing L4L.
  • That leaves Sutcliffe for Motlop, and his role is a bit unclear. He’s played on a wing, as a tagger and as a leading forward this year – all with little fantasy relevance. If I had to take a stab, I’d suggest a defensive forward role on Lloyd would be an excellent use of his talents.
  • As you can gather from the smaller CBA’s & Roles paragraph above, not a lot of mystery with Port’s roles. Gray’s M/F split is always uncertain in my eyes, while Port has been known to actively rest one of Wines/Boak/Rockliff on a HFF flank at times, but that’s about it.

Notable outs: Houston, Ladhams, Mayes, Woodcock. 

Sydney: Aliir, McInerney, Clarke IN O’Riordan, Stephens, Foot OUT

  • Sydney has a couple of options here. Aliir has played at both ends this year, but I think he’ll play in defence this week as coverage for O’Riordan (especially with Reid in the side to chop out Sinclair). 
  • What makes me doubt that is the fact that McInerney has played in defence this year and Sydney only have one outgoing backman. Of course, Dawson played in defence last week and could be promoted up to a wing to cover the omitted Stephens, or even into attack to replace Foot.
  • Continuing the uncertainty, Clarke comes in without a clear role. He’s played on a wing this year, tagged on one occasion and spent time across half forward. He’s not a huge DFS concern unless he’s tagging in my opinion, and Port don’t have any elite wingmen to worry about. 
  • Blakey on a wing should persist considering the increased output from him in the last fortnight, plus Sydney are deep into rebuild mode at this point. Thurlow as a high half forward endures for a similar reason.
  • It’s JPK’s second game back so I expect increased KPI’s for the veteran, with decreased midfield time for Papley to balance it out.

Notable outs: Franklin, Heeney, Hewett, Naismith, Rampe. 

TRENDS

Port has conceded the 4th-least points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (+0.0)

Sydney has conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+1.2)
Sydney has conceded the most points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (+15.5)

HISTORY

Wines – 96, 125, 110
Boak 53, 77, 97 (tagged by Hewett)

Lloyd – 104, 75, 87
JPK – 81, 105, 118
Parker 53, 97, 99 (HFF/guts rotation. 5 FA’s)

 

FREMANTLE vs GWS GIANTS

Optus Stadium, 4.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 30 max)
WEATHER: 16 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: GWS $1.55 favourites, 112.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Walters remained a full-time forward for the Dockers last week, which resulted in a similar midfield mix overall. Blakely’s numbers are on life support at the moment, earning just 55% and 54% TOG in the past fortnight to go with just the 4 CBA’s against Sydney. When Walters finally does return to the midfield, who misses out – Blakely with his place in the team, or Brayshaw (97 AF with a 0.87 CBA Rate) with more of a wing role? Ryan continues to dominate as a one-size-fits-all defender, only taking 5 marks amongst his 88 AF this week – super encouraging considering that once upon a time he used to scale heavily with marks. Aish and Cerra were again the primary wingmen. Henry played as a permanent forward on debut, while Hill had an absolute mare in defence with just 12 AF in a full game. 

It was the usual suspects with the usual violent swings in midfield time for GWS this week, with Hopper/Coniglio up and Kelly down. Daniels was removed completely, while Greene’s 5 CBA’s all came in the last quarter as the Giants went searching for a spark with a deficit against West Coast – he played his customary forward role otherwise. Riccardi was a DFS slate-breaker on debut, posting a hefty 87 AF from 2 goals and 10 marks as the Eagles paid him no mind on his searching leads outside of the F50. Likely a structural quirk, but boy did he ooze confidence with some moments of pure swagger. Williams and Perryman both managed 81 AF with roles across half-back, with Whitfield starting on a wing but swept back in typical fashion. Kennedy joined the back 7 in his first game back from injury. Caldwell (HFF), Himmelberg (back-up ruck), Daniels (forward pocket) and Ward (wing before being injured) were the other roles of note.  

TEAMSHEETS

Fremantle: Bewley INFrederick OUT

  • Simple HFF like-for-like here for Freo, with Aish and Cerra preferred to Bewley on the wing in recent times, although I expect him to be the 3rd man in that rotation. 
  • That leads me to believe that Walters will be down forward full-time again, as Brayshaw won’t have the leftover wing time to supplement the inside time he’d be sacrificing for Son-Son
  • With a similar structure to Round 13, take care of your exposures to Blakely – his TOG is critically low.

Notable outs: Young. 

GWS: Ash, de Boer INWard, Caldwell OUT

  • Ash returns to the team to play his HBF role, which promotes Perryman (or possibly Kennedy) up to a wing to replace the injured Ward.
  • De Boer replaces Caldwell on a HFF, which is where he was playing before being injured a few weeks ago. I’m always wary of a defensive forward role when de Boer is up there, and Luke Ryan would be a target worthy of his attention. 
  • Riccardi holds his spot and will get the 3rd-best defender behind Cameron and Himmelberg, which is a big deal against a Fremantle team missing 2-3 of their best tall backs. It’s a great little structural quirk that could see him produce close to what he did on debut, but beware – he’s now double the price.
  • Greene should return back to his permanent forward role, but it’s something to keep in mind for his floor – Leon Cameron has no problem moving him into the midfield if needed.

Notable outs: Ward, Davis. 

TRENDS

Fremantle has conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-2.2)
Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-least points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (+1.0)
Fremantle has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (+9.8)

GWS has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+12.1)
GWS has conceded the least points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-10.6)
GWS has conceded the least points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (-3.0)

HISTORY

Fyfe – 92, 91, 120
Ryan – 86, 58, 138
Taberner – 128, 74

Coniglio – 126, 121, 104
Kelly – 106, DNP, 91
Whitfield – 104, 66, 88
Williams – 101, DNP, 77
Taranto – 84, 120
Greene – DNP, 90, DNP

 

MELBOURNE vs ST KILDA

TIO Traeger Park, 7.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$20,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 40 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: St Kilda $1.80 favourites, 125.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The writing was already on the wall for Sparrow with just the single CBA in the first half before suffering a broken collarbone – Melbourne are set on their inside core. Brayshaw is slowly losing his CBA’s however, dropping to 61% after two season-high figures the fortnight prior. Hopefully this is his floor moving forward, because he’s proven to seriously rely on those attendances. McDonald (62 AF) enjoyed a boost with 11 hitouts as the back-up ruckman behind Preuss – his ruck time won’t be that high with Gawn at the wheel. Tomlinson (key defender), Melksham (permanent forward), Harmes (HBF) and vandenBerg (wing) were the other roles of note.

St Kilda tightened up their CBA mix this week, with Ross moving to a full-time inside role and Billings back out to a full-time wing assignment after they both mixed-and-matched last week. A big reason for this week was Ross’ tag on Neale, keeping the Brownlow fancy to a season-low 71 AF. That unexpected job allowed Steele to continue his streak as an offensively-minded MID, scoring 110 AF from 25 touches and 10 tackles. Bytel’s inside time was still there, but his 57% game-time overall is a worry. Ryder was still the preferred ruckman at centre bounces, but continues to split the overall ruck contests 55/45 with Marshall, which is how the latter constantly scrapes his way to value. Geary remained in defence this week, while Battle was switched back into attack with the return of Carlisle from a rest. Sinclair has settled back into his role across half forward. 

TEAMSHEETS

Melbourne: Gawn, J Wagner, Brown, Jones, O McDonald, Rivers IN Fritsch, Preuss, Harmes, Lockhart, T McDonald, Sparrow OUT

  • Gawn replaces Preuss, solo ruck L4L. I wouldn’t be overly worried about his total ruck time – he took 94% of ruck contests in his return game from a hamstring injury earlier in the year.
  • O McDonald/Rivers replace Harmes/Lockhart in defence. 
  • Jones replaces Sparrow on a HFF.
  • Wagner replaces Fritsch, half forward L4L.
  • Brown replaces T McDonald, key forward L4L. He’ll probably be asked to chop out Gawn in the ruck too, with Weideman the less apealling option. 
  • No midfield addition is great news for Brayshaw truthers. He looks set for 60% CBA presence minimum here. 
  • Wing rotation should be Langdon, vandenBerg and the resting midfielder.
  • Alternate structure involves Tomlinson up to a wing (Oscar McDonald being back would allow that, tall/small balance-wise) with Jones to a HBF.

Notable outs: Jackson, Preuss, Sparrow, T McDonald, Harmes. 

St Kilda: Phillips, Clarke IN Carlisle, Bytel OUT

  • Bytel out opens up a big chunk of CBA’s. Two scenarios here:
  • Scenario 1 – This would be the perfect opportunity for a classic Hunter Clark midfield game, and I think that’s possible because Battle could go back to cover Carlisle as he did a couple of weeks ago. Phillips would join a HFF/wing rotation in this event.
  • Scenario 2 – K.I.S.S. says that Clarke replaces Carlisle down back and Phillips replaces Bytel in the midfield rotation. The problem with this is that Saints don’t rate Phillips on the inside and all of St Kilda’s bulls were already maxed out last week, so Billings (wing) or Sinclair (HFF) would need to step up.
  • There’s also a 3rd scenario where Clark and Battle both play in defence and Geary plays another miscellaneous role up the ground as a tagger or a defensive forward.
  • Does Ross tag again? Bytel’s omission suggests he plays an offensive role, but you still might want to be careful with Oliver’s exposures just to be safe.

Notable outs: Dunstan, Gresham, Hannebery. 

TRENDS

Melbourne has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+14.2)
Melbourne has conceded the least points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (-21.3)

St Kilda has conceded the 2nd-least points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (-6.2)

HISTORY

Gawn – 128, 97, 135, 111
Oliver 109, 114, 82, 107 (tagged by Steele)
Harmes106, 103 (midfield roles)
Salem – 82, 117
Petracca 77, 85, 71, 62 (hybrid HFF/guts roles)
Brayshaw66, 104, 116, 113 (had a shocker, but had the inside time)
Viney – 60, 93, 98

Ross146, 100, DNP, 121 (offensive midfielder)
Steele – 114, 88, 106, 90
Billings – 85, 105, 93
Marshall82, 53, DNP, 43 (solo ruck)

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