SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$1,000 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 2 max)

 

GOLD COAST vs PORT ADELAIDE

Metricon, 1.45pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 15 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.43 favourites, 154.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Wunderkind Matt Rowell returned to action and, given that every action has a reaction, the midfield time dropped for fellow young guns in Flanders (-30% CBA share) and Rankine (-28%) as expected. Rowell looked very rusty in his 48 AF from 73% game-time, but as they say, he’ll be better for the run – he’s a couple of weeks away from a ceiling game. The midfield time was already down for Greenwood/Swallow/Weller/Anderson, so they largely held their already-capped rotations. None of that quartet can be considered for cash games at the moment, but at least Weller and Swallow are seeing wing time when they’re not in the guts and have GPP upside – Anderson hasn’t had that privilege lately with almost a pure half forward role. Miller (full-time inside MID) and Ellis (full-time wingman) are the Suns you want to consider instead for the “cash games” honour. Touk, in particular, could not be more impressive – to cop the Serong tag and not only break it, but smash it to bits with a 130-point monster, highlights the separation he’s put between himself and his fickle Gold Coast teammates.  Zac Smith increased his game-time to an acceptable solo ruck level for the first time this year – he might have even turned the corner with a 43-point second half, but I wouldn’t hold your breath. Consistent roles elsewhere, with Bowes (60 AF) and Lukosius (66 AF) hurting each other with the overlapping skillsets in defence once again.

Port tends to wheel out Boak as a full-time inside midfielder for the games against contenders (while managing the veteran a bit with half forward rotations against the weaker opposition), so he had a full plate against the Cats – even before the O’Connor tag snaked his way. To grind his way to 98 AF highlights his class. Gray gets similar treatment as a M/F, stealing the +24% CBA share from his younger teammate Drew. Meanwhile, the loss of goalsneak Fantasia forced Powell-Pepper and Rozee to play closer to goal and you could see the high-variance nature of their roles in action – Rozee snagged 5 goals to pump out a 98, while SPP struggled his way to 37 AF. Houston moved back into the midfield rotation with a defensive wing role and continued on with the form he regained from last round’s 97 across half-back, hitting 98 AF despite not featuring at the kick-ins. McKenzie has that honour as “The Cannon” instead, and he’s displaying some upside due to the bonus kicks with scores of 89 and 74 in the past fortnight. Houston’s move up the ground allowed Bergman to return to half-back, and the backline unit evolved ever further in the final quarter with Lachie Jones and Farrell curiously swapping ends. 

TEAMSHEETS

Gold Coast: Collins, Day IN – Graham, Rosas OUT
Notable outs: Witts. 

  • Collins in for Graham, key defender L4L.
  • Day in for Rosas up forward, which finally gives Gold Coast some balance height-wise in attack.
  • Day has historically taken up the back-up ruck duties, but it’ll be interesting to see whether they ease him in by making the more expendable Burgess continue to duke it out in the ruck. Either way, needle doesn’t move much for either. Yet.
  • Look out for Rowell to slowly build up TOG and confidence. Might not be ripe for the picking in DFS just yet, but he’s locked in that inside midfield role either way, and anything can happen when you’re around the pill that often.
  • Lukosius and Bowes to cockblock each other in defence again.
  • Anderson still at the bottom of the Gold Coast midfield power rankings. The half forward flank has not been his friend over his short career to date.

Port Adelaide: Lienert, Lycett IN – Bonner, Marshall OUT
Notable outs: Butters, Duursma, Rockliff, Bonner, Fantasia, Clurey. 

  • Lycett (#1 ruck) replaces Marshall (key forward/back-up ruck), which involves sliding Ladhams back down to his early season role as Lycett’s deputy. It goes without saying, but you can fade him in everything but the most Porty of Port stacks – he’ll need to kick a bag to reach value after a month of solo rucking has inflated his salary.
  • Lienert (half back) to replace Bonner (wing), which involves moving Bergman up to play a half forward/wing role.
  • Lienert himself is an interesting one. $10k is pricey for someone we haven’t seen this year, but he’s shown a fantasy game in the past. Averaging 85 AF in the SANFL this year and has to be considered in Port stacks against a fledgling Gold Coast outfit.
  • Gold Coast don’t quite fit the “contender” label, so expect the likes of Boak and Gray to lose a chunk of their midfield rotations with some management up forward. Gives Powell-Pepper and Drew a chance to crank up their attendances, which raises their ceilings significantly.
  • I still see Rozee having to play predominantly forward – when Fantasia returns, that’s when we start hunting around for the midfield time.
  • Houston to remain on a wing with yet another defender added to the mix behind him. Along with Amon, he’s a small chance to see some of those extra CBA’s vacated by the vets too, but it doesn’t change my expectations on them at all – both guns with or without the centre-bounce stuff, especially against the Suns.

TRENDS

Gold Coast has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY DEFs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to GEN DEFs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY FWDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to MIDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to ELITE MIDs in L5.
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to RUCs in L5.

Port has conceded the fewest points to KEY FWDs this year.
Port has conceded the 5th-fewest points to GEN FWDs this year.
Port has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to MIDs this year.
Port has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to ELITE MIDs this year.

HISTORY

 

 

NORTH MELBOURNE vs BRISBANE

Blundstone Arena, 4.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$12,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 10 degrees and mostly cloudy, small chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Brisbane $1.15 favourites, 171.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

There isn’t much to report on North’s roles this week, with everything basically falling into place as we predicted. Stephenson spent the majority of his time as a forward and was actually able to upswing to value (87 AF) with the Roos holding the ascendancy for most of the game. Hall was tagged by de Boer as expected, but smashed that tag to bits with equally crafty and relentless play across half-back – 133 AF was his reward, and for all of those who backed him in in fantasy. Tarryn Thomas continues to reach value with 75 AF in another outing as a part-time midfielder, but he’s weirdly lost the FWD status on Draftstars and that really hurts his DFS appeal. Walker remained in defence – despite the return of Tarrant – which gave them competent coverage on Key FWDs for the first time this season. Meanwhile, Turner as a lockdown small defender was responsible for Greene and did as good a job as you could’ve hoped for on the GWS gamebreaker. Young (wing) and Xerri (back-up ruckman/key forward) were the other roles of note, while Scott lined up at half-forward and made life difficult for Whitfield as a sweeper all day.

The Lions are in the same Premiership assault window as Melbourne, never trying to fix what ain’t broken. That’s made them highly predictable over the past month or so, outside of making the obvious adjustments for Neale’s comeback from injury. 71 AF was a lean return fantasy-wise, but the 86% CBA presence was a massive tick and he copped a fair bit of attention at stoppages from Harmes to limit his scoring. Good signs overall moving forward. Unfortunately, Zorko’s suspension and a hamstring recurrence for Lester opens up some rare structural leeway moving forward, although it’s likely to just be plugged by Mathieson/Berry/Berry and Madden respectively to maintain those structures. Bailey snagged 4 goals for the second time in three weeks, which is awesome; but to score only 72 and 99 in those games shows how the 27% CBA share over that period isn’t doing his floor any favours. Deven Robertson (81 AF) has gone ahead of him in that role with a 53% share over the same period, and now has a lowest score of 70 AF in his past month of action. Consistent roles elsewhere with Ah Chee remaining in his small defender post.

TEAMSHEETS

North: McDonald, Taylor IN – Young, Garner OUT
Notable outs: Anderson, Polec, Bonar. 

  • Taylor (small forward) in for Young (wing), with Stephenson earning his wing time with an impressive first game back last week.
  • McDonald (small defender) in for Garner (key forward), with Josh Walker swinging forward to restore balance at both ends.
  • Is McDonald’s return a concern for Ziebell and/or Hall as defensive accumulators? I’m leaning towards no, for a few reasons. Firstly, he’s coming back from a long-term injury into a settled defensive structure. Secondly, he wasn’t scoring heavily during the pre-season, indicating that a role change (cough Ziebell) was already planned pre-injury. Lastly, North was relying on Turner as a lockdown defender last week – McDonald obviously has the ability and experience over him in that role.
  • Don’t see an obvious wing tag for Bailey Scott, but he showed last week on Whitfield that you don’t have to do a lot to put a half-back distributor off their game. Could he be asked to stand next to Brisbane’s backline weapon in Rich all game?

Brisbane: Mathieson, Madden IN – Zorko, Lester OUT
Notable outs: Zorko, J Berry, Lester, Gardiner. 

  • As straight-forward as it gets – Mathieson for Zorko and Madden for Lester.
  • Despite coming from outside of the 22, expect Mathieson to slot in ahead of Robertson/Bailey at the CBA’s – he averaged 58% CBA presence during Neale’s injury lay-off, compared to 46% and 33% for the other pair respectively.

TRENDS

North has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY DEFs in L5.
North has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEFs in L5.

Brisbane has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN DEFs this year.
Brisbane has conceded the fewest points to GEN FWDs this year.

HISTORY

 

 

GWS vs CARLTON

GIANTS Stadium, 7.25pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: 14 degrees and raining.
BOOKIES: GWS $1.63 favourites, 158.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The midfield rotations have settled for GWS, with a few last-quarter appearances from Toby Greene in the midst of a comeback the only significant change in thinking. That means that Kelly once again played a hybrid midfield role, and North’s focus on keeping the ball out of Whitfield’s hands allowed the silky midfielder to run around unchecked all day for a 152-point monster. Kelly won’t go so unnoticed against Carlton after that. Whitfield wasn’t tagged so much by Scott as he was manned up, which massively lowered his access to the usual easy pill across half back. Hopper had a season-low 52 AF but I wouldn’t be too concerned – he still had 22 touches, it was just one of those random games where the peripheral stats weren’t flowing (just 1 mark and 0 tackles). Haynes (107 AF) looked like a different player coming out of the bye, taking 14 clunks (including a round-high 9 intercept marks) in an actual intercepting role – I think it’s safe to start thinking about him in DFS as you would have in 2020. Himmelberg spent the 2nd quarter in defence to stem North’s tide, but the status quo was regained in the second half. Reid (back pocket), Kennedy (wing), de Boer (forward tagger) and Stein (key defender) were the other roles of note. 

I flagged that Carlton would start to shift their attention to the future as they drifted out of finals contention, and they wasted no time in doing so with a big deposit into Paddy Dow’s midfield stocks with 64% CBA presence. Veteran Ed Curnow (-56%) was predictably phased out on the flipside, with Carlton preparing for this exact scenario by training him as a wingman all pre-season. Setterfield was another big-picture beneficiary of the youth policy, with Docherty’s return to half back allowing him to fill the hybrid midfield role that saw him become one of Carlton’s main midfield contributors in 2020. His stocks are rising. Williams continued to build form and confidence in a half-back role and impressed with 92 AF, but definitely saw a little boost with fellow distributor Nic Newman going down with concussion during the 3rd term. Newnes, who had replaced Harry McKay as the medical sub earlier in the game, switched back to help out in defence once Newman went down. Stocker was given a baptism of fire as a lockdown defender on Liam Ryan and found the going pretty tough. Meanwhile, we wait patiently for the Blues to return to a solo ruck structure so that we can cash in on the slowly dropping Draftstars price-tags of Pittonet and De Koning. Silvagni (third tall forward), Murphy (high half forward), Fisher (forward pocket) and Cottrell (wing) were the other roles of note.  

TEAMSHEETS

GWS: Perryman, Briggs, Davis IN – Ash, Mumford, Stein OUT
Notable outs: Coniglio, Daniels, Preuss, Hogan, Taylor, Keeffe, Mumford. 

  • Perryman for Ash, half-back distributor L4L.
  • Davis for Stein, key defender L4L.
  • Briggs for Mumford in the ruck, with Briggs likely to play a backseat to Flynn – they ran a 64/36 ruck split in Flynn’s favour back in Round 9.
  • Flynn scored 109 in that game.
  • Haynes’ stocks rise again with Davis slotting in as a key defender behind him. Intercepting rather than locking down in crucial for his fantasy output.
  • Who does de Boer focus on this week? If we assume GWS’s structure remains, then Docherty would be the obvious answer, but given he’s likely to move up out of defence, who’s next? Do you bother with Saad if you can just throw a blanket over himself, Newman and Williams off half-back anyway? Doesn’t feel great. Instead, I think that it’s more likely that De Boer repeats what he did last year when he tagged Cripps to 82 AF from half forward. The beauty of this is that it didn’t require any CBA’s – he just ran in from half-forward and followed him around for everything except the restarts.

Carlton: Fogarty, Parks, Kennedy IN – Murphy, Cottrell, Setterfield OUT
Notable outs: Setterfield, Cottrell, Newnes, Murphy. 

  • Fogarty for Murphy, high half forward L4L.
  • Kennedy (half forward with CBA cameos) in for Setterfield (hybrid midfielder) – say hello to a full-time inside role, Paddy Dow! You have to take a serious bite at him for just $6k.
  • Parks (lockdown defender) for Cottrell (pure wing), with Docherty moving back up to a wing.
  • Ed Curnow remains in his new wing role. Youth policy and all that.

TRENDS

GWS has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY FWDs in L5.
GWS has conceded the 5th-fewest points to MIDs this year.
GWS has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUCs in L5.

Carlton has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN FWDs in L5.

HISTORY

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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