SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)

 

ADELAIDE vs GEELONG

Adelaide Oval, 1.05pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 12 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: Geelong $1.06 favourites, 129.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Young Talent Time at Adelaide is still evolving. Laird is still being trialed as an inside midfielder, clocking in at 73%, 72% and 61% CBA presence over the last 3 weeks. Schoenberg was up to 54% presence in his limited game-time, while the incoming Poholke made his first appearance at the CBA’s since Round 5. Keays surrendered some of his time to let them in, but Matt Crouch is still hovering around 80% and that’s predictably resulted in scores of 91, 103 and 96 in that time. Brodie Smith once again patrolled the D50 with Laird promoted into the midfield group. Sloane was quiet with his now-customary pittance of a CBA allowance – he’s getting nice and cheap in DFS now and he’ll be ripe for the picking at some point… At least he was up on a wing, rather than deep forward, when not in the guts. Seedsman dropped back into defence once McPherson went down injured. McAsey was up forward for team balance reasons this week. 

It was a clear Guthrie, Selwood and Dangerfield core for the Cats this week, with cameos from Parfitt, Duncan, Fogarty and, surprisingly, Atkins. This obviously isn’t an issue for Duncan’s scoring because he’s just as damaging off a wing, but unfortunately Parfitt’s non-CBA minutes are being spent up forward, so his output is suffering. Menegola might as well have his name burned into the turf of one of the wings – it’s been a huge month for the ball magnet. Blicavs played a spare parts role, joining Duncan and Menegola in the wing rotation, backing up Stanley in the ruck – they split the taps 67/33 – but also helping out in defence at times. Hawkins absolutely monstered the Port defenders in this game, taking 10 marks and slotting 6 majors for his slate-breaking 123 AF – it was interesting to see Geelong specifically structure up to have him sitting back in pure 1-on-1’s. Tuohy was on a HFF once again, alongside Simpson before he went down injured. 

TEAMSHEETS

Adelaide: Crocker, Jones, Fogarty, Butts INMcPherson, Talia, McAsey, Seedsman OUT

  • Fogarty replaces McAsey, key forward L4L. 
  • Butts replaces Talia, key defender L4L. He’s a $5k DEF on Draftstars but I wouldn’t be too heavy on him – he averaged 62 in the SANFL (19 touches, 5 marks) but will likely have to play lockdown in a horrendous team here.
  • That leaves forwards Crocker and Jones for McPherson (defender) and Seedsman (wing), which requires a restructure. Mackay from a wing to half-back (where he gets all his touches anyway) would solve the defensive dilemma, but open up another hole on the other wing. If they go this way, it’s probably filled by a committee of Keays, Sloane, Poholke, Schoenberg and Jones – Crows actually have a lot of specialist forwards named this week. 
  • The other option is Laird back to his classic half-back role. In a vacuum this would be the sensible move, but Crows have nothing to play for this year – they might as well continue to see what he can do in the midfield. This one could go either way, so plan accordingly.

Notable outs: B Crouch, Doedee, Lynch, Seedsman. 

Geelong: Steven, Close, Ratugolea, Clark, Dahlhaus IN Taylor, Selwood, Fogarty, Simpson, Tuohy OUT

  • Dahlhaus/Close replace Simpson/Tuohy, forward flank L4L. 
  • Clark essentially replaces Taylor, slotting onto a wing with Blicavs sliding back to be the extra tall defender. And he can do this because…
  • Ratugolea is back to pinch-hit behind Stanley, effectively taking Fogarty’s slot up forward.
  • Steven replaces Selwood in the midfield rotation. There are a few extra CBA’s available with Selwood resting, so Parfitt could be in line for an up-tick. Atkins might even match or beat his season-high 27% presence from last week; he was pretty active in the Marsh series in that role. 
  • Guthrie was on the injury list with soreness this week – could it be a lighter load (either through TOG or a more relaxed role) for him against the cellar-dwelling Crows this week?

Notable outs: Ablett, Fort, Tuohy, Selwood. 

TRENDS

Adelaide has conceded the 3rd-most points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+11.5)
Adelaide has conceded the most points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+14.5)
Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (+9.8)
Adelaide has conceded the most points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (+18.2)
Adelaide has conceded the most points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (+14.2)

Geelong has conceded the 2nd-least points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (-3.9)
Geelong has conceded the least points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (-2.9)
Geelong has conceded the least points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-13.3)

HISTORY

O’Brien – 128, 69
Sloane – 108, 120, 111
B Crouch – 104, 128
M Crouch – 95, 101, 94
Laird – 78, 84, 122

Stewart – 108, 104
Dangerfield – 92, 132, 151, 121, 112, 131, 118, 129
Duncan – 99, 103
Stanley – 74, 82, 102 (solo ruckman)
Menegola – DNP, 95, 82
Blicavs101 (40/60 split with Stanley)

 

BRISBANE vs ST KILDA

Gabba, 3.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 30 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: Brisbane $1.40 favourites, 134.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The omission of Ellis-Yolmen released the strain on Brisbane’s CBA’s as expected, with Lyons back to his normal level and Zorko improving his CBA Rate. Mathieson capitalised on the opportunity, playing mostly off half forward but also sneaking in for 4 CBA’s amongst his 61 AF score. I thought McCarthy had a chance for more attendances, but managed just the 2 as a permanent forward essentially. McInerney was impressive as the main man in the ruck once again, taking a 73/27 split with Eagles, who played just 46% TOG for the second week in a row. Witherden (78 AF) continues to post usable scores – he’s really found his groove in defence. Lester filled in for Rich on a HBF. Ah Chee was in attack again with Rayner still recovering from his hamstring strain. Consistent roles elsewhere, outside of a curious amount of time across half forward for McCluggage – monitor. 

Ryder emerged as the main ruckman in the match, posting a 1.01 CBA Rate compared to Marshall’s 0.24 – yet they both reached value with 79 AF and 84 AF respectively. This is easily their best split, so hopefully it remains for DFS clarity and consistency. Gresham’s back injury coincided with Jones’ return so it was basically a straight swap, but Ross’ return knee-capped Sinclair big time – it was back to a forward role for him. On the other hand, it was encouraging to see Bytel hang around with 58% CBA presence, but he just didn’t put it together stat-wise with 27 AF. Battle played a defensive role with Carlisle being managed and looked very comfortable, notching 9 marks in his 91 AF. Geary joined him in defense (which isn’t always a given these days with all his tagging jobs) with Paton’s early concussion leaving them a defender short. 

TEAMSHEETS

Brisbane: Rayner, Fullarton IN Eagles, Mathieson OUT

  • Fullarton replaces Eagles as the pinch-hitting ruck. As a $5k FWD you always need to look at him, but with Eagles playing just 46% TOG the past fortnight, will he even get a chance to reach value? He averaged 65 in the NEAFL last year but that’s about as relevant as his basketball background given the quality of that competition and the change in role he’ll experience stepping up into the senior side. It’s a no from me. 
  • Rayner replaces Mathieson, forward with cameo CBA’s. 
  • Where does Ah Chee play? He was only moved forward to replace Rayner originally, but played well enough that Brisbane might be tempted to leave him forward. Occam’s Razor says he remains forward as a goal threat.

Notable outs: Martin, A Smith. 

St Kilda: Kent, Carlisle INClark, Lonie OUT

  • Kent for Lonie, small forward L4L.
  • Carlisle for Clarke, defense L4L.
  • Don’t see too much changing here for St Kilda outside of either Battle or Geary moving back up forward with Paton effectively an inclusion. Height-wise, it’s probably Battle who heads down the other end with Carlisle disturbing the vertical balance of their backline. 
  • Is Ross full fit? He was on the injury list with a calf again during the week. If so, Bytel might see his CBA’s whittled away again slightly after a quieter second game. 

Notable outs: Gresham, Hannebery, Dunstan, Ross. 

TRENDS

Brisbane has conceded the 3rd-least points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (+1.9)

St Kilda has conceded the 4th-most points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+7.5)
St Kilda has conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+4.8)
St Kilda has conceded the 4th-least points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (-3.8)

HISTORY

Zorko – 120, 57, 117 (tagged by Geary, then Steele)
Neale79, 106, 117, 104, 112 (tagged by Ross)
Lyons – 107, 99, 84
Rich – 111, INJ, 107
Witherden – 92, 72
Cameron81, 87 (5 snags, 3 snags)

Marshall – 107 (solo ruck)
Billings – 113, 123
Ross – 106, 123, 96

 

WEST COAST vs GWS GIANTS

Optus Stadium, 6.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$25,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 50 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and partly cloudy.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.35 favourites, 118.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

With all else remaining constant, Yeo’s late withdrawal and Redden’s injury shaped West Coast’s CBA’s this week. Sheed and Gaff were the liquids that moved to fill the shape of the container, with Gaff as an inside midfielder seemingly preferable than having Ainsworth play a meaningful clearance role – he’ll take wing time over his HFF role any day though. Sheppard cashed in on Hawthorn’s DEF-trend – he’s officially taken over Hurn as West Coast’s primary fantasy threat in defense. Brander was the late inclusion and hovered on the wings. Reid played as a permanent forward, gifted a goal at one stage by Darling so his 38 AF looked even “better” than it actually was. Consistent roles elsewhere, as per usual.

Even removing the obvious Jacobs for Mumford swap, the Giants muddied their CBA waters quite heavily with the additions of Daniels (35%) and Caldwell (29%) coming out of nowhere. Hopper and Taranto took the brunt of the hit, and Coniglio was already playing a part-time role for the previous couple of weeks. Ward was removed completely, which puts his disappointing 41 AF into proper perspective. Perryman and Whitfield took turns in defence and on the wing. Ward was mainly on the wing without his CBA’s, facilitated by an inside fill-up from Kelly with a season-high 71% CBA presence. O’Halloran patrolled a HFF, as did Hutchesson prior to his hamstring injury. Haynes was ineffective (just 25 AF) up against a Hayward forward tag. 

TEAMSHEETS

West Coast: Duggan, O’Neill INAinsworth, Redden OUT

  • Duggan comes in without another defender going out, which means a rare restructure for the Eagles. It’s a big call without much of a precedent, but my gut says that with Sydney having huge success in forward-tagging Haynes, West Coast will do a similar job – don’t be surprised to see someone like Nelson or Rotham up forward with a defensive job on the Giants’ intercept marker. 
  • O’Neill replaces Redden and with Yeo already missing, the debutant should see a small number of CBA’s in his first senior game. He averaged 56 AF in the WAFL last year but has apparently taken huge steps this year in an apprenticeship under Shuey – I’m actually relatively bullish on his prospects as a $5k MID (at least, compared to other base-priced debutants on this slate). 
  • Gaff ideally isn’t playing as an inside MID for half the game, so expected his wing time to rise here with Eagles having all week (and not just 90 minutes) to come up with a plan. 

Notable outs: Redden, Yeo, Ainsworth. 

GWS: Kennedy, Hill, Lloyd, Riccardi, Mumford, Greene INFinlayson, Ash, Jacobs, Hutchesson, O’Halloran, Langdon OUT

  • Kennedy replaces Ash, defense L4L.
  • Hill/Lloyd/Riccardi/Greene replace Finlayson/Hutchesson/O’Halloran/Langdon in attack.
  • Mumford replaces Jacobs in the ruck. 
  • Midfield has been left untouched – expect a similar mix, although I can’t see Ward frozen out forever and Daniels is no guarantee to maintain his CBA’s from last week.
  • Riccardi is a 195cm key forward who’ll probably be asked to do what Finlayson was doing up forward. I don’t think he’ll be required when Mumford needs a rest though – Himmelberg has seen his ruck contests grow in each of the past 3 weeks. Back to Riccardi though – a 63-point average in the NEAFL last year against one of the best backlines in the league isn’t screaming DFS chalk to me. 
  • As mentioned above, beware of a Haynes forward tag. 

Notable outs: de Boer, Finlayson, Jacobs. 

TRENDS

West Coast has conceded the 4th-least points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-4.3)
West Coast has conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-0.1)
West Coast has conceded the 4th-least points to RUC’s over the last 5 rounds (-4.4)

GWS has conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 rounds (+14.9)
GWS has conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 rounds (-4.4)
GWS has conceded the least points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds (-5.3)

HISTORY

Shuey – 109, 96, DNP
Sheed – 106, DNP, DNP
Gaff – DNP, 146, 86
Hurn – 84, 94, 89

Whitfield – 133, 105, 98 (shin issue)
Taranto – 79, 114, 104
Coniglio50, 104, 111 (tagged by Hutchings)
Ward – DNP, 101, 104

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