SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)

 

WESTERN BULLDOGS vs MELBOURNE

Metricon, 1.45pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 21 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: Melbourne $1.74 favourites, 131.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Looks like Beveridge has found a work-around for his packed midfield problem – just play one of them as a ruckman for half the game. While English took the bulk of the CBA’s as a ruckman, he only took 52% of the overall ruck contests for the game, with Dunkley notching a whopping 40% as his primary back-up. Wow. The things you can try against Adelaide… The CBA core for the Bulldogs is very clear, with Liberatore’s TOG and Dunkley’s overall CBA’s the only small areas of concern. Hunter returned without skipping a beat, sliding back into his customary wing position and collecting 29 touches amongst his 99 AF. Cavarra upswung with 2 snags and 66 AF but don’t expect this every week – the Adelaide boost had a large say here. Lipinski (wing/HFF), West (HFF), Richards (HBF) and R Smith (HBF) were the other roles of note. 

Preuss stepped in as the main ruckman with both Gawn and Jackson missing, and was very serviceable with 65 AF in a tough Grundy match-up. Viney returned from concussion and was right back into it with 82% game-time, which is what makes Brayshaw’s 73% CBA presence super encouraging. It’s obviously not the monstrous 95% that he had without Viney last week, but it’s still his second-highest inside split for the season – hence the 100 AF. Meanwhile, Sparrow is the one being phased out with just 55% TOG and a CBA Rate of 0.42. Tomlinson is still playing as a key defender which kills his DFS allure, while Spargo (forward pocket), Jones (HFF), vandenBerg (wing/HFF), Melksham (HFF) and Lockhart (back pocket) were the secondary roles of note.

TEAMSHEETS

Western Bulldogs: Crozier, Johannisen, Bruce, Vandermeer INR Smith, Dale, West, Lloyd OUT

  • Crozier replaces Roarke Smith, half back L4L.
  • Vandermeer replaces West, forward flank L4L.
  • Bruce replaces Dale as a marking forward target. Does his inclusion mean that Dunkley won’t be thrown to the ruck wolves this time around, or was that a Bevo Mastermind Move (TM) irrespective of the lack of Gowers/Bruce/Cordy in this side?
  • That leaves Johannisen for Lloyd, which undoes the structure change they pulled last week – Ed Richards returns to his customary HFF role.

Notable outs: Suckling.

Melbourne: Unchanged

  • The Dees run it back! I don’t expect any roles to change after belting the Pies last week, but all eyes will be on the CBA splits. Does Brayshaw remain as a primarily inside midfielder? Given that his scores have very tightly followed his CBA Rate so far this year, it’ll be a huge factor in this DFS slate priced at $11,750. 
  • If Brayshaw does stick with his beefed-up KPI’s, you can’t really touch Sparrow at $8,160. He’s the Peter being robbed to pay Paul. 
  • Preuss is extremely playable here at $9,460, especially if they continue to throw the undersized Dunkley at him for half the contests.

Notable outs: Gawn, Jackson. 

TRENDS

Bulldogs have conceded the 3rd-most points to MID’s this year (+7.9)
Bulldogs have conceded the most points to RUC’s over the last 5 games (+20.1)

Melbourne has conceded the most points to GEN DEF’s this year (+9.4)
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s this year (+8.5)
Melbourne has conceded the least points to RUC’s over the last 5 games (-14.9)

HISTORY

Dunkley – 189, 99
Macrae – 110, 133, 107
Hunter – 154, 117, 109
Bontempelli 86, DNP, 95 (rolled ankle early)

Viney – 113, DNP, 82
Gawn – 105, 108, 141 (not playing obviously but if you didn’t know already… RUC’s vs Bulldogs)
Petracca – 90 (forward/mid hybrid role)
Oliver – 69, 121, 105
Brayshaw44, 128, 133 (wing role)

 

PORT ADELAIDE vs HAWTHORN

Adelaide Oval, 4.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 30 max)
WEATHER: 11 degrees and partly cloudy, scattered showers throughout the day.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.18 favourites, 118.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

It was a very even spread in the CBA’s this week for Port, who are running with an extra core member of their inside unit than the majority of teams. Gray’s 12 CBA’s stick out to me as the most likely to fade away, but I’ve been saying that for a couple of weeks now and they’ve remained. Boak looks the safest Port MID judging from that graphic above but it’s easy to forget that he was at just 35% presence the week before – Port are in a ladder position where they can take the piss a little bit with in-game resting. Their roles, on the other hand, are super consistent – nothing to report here.

McEvoy got the Ceglar-free boost but copped the Naitanui anchor, so things balanced out and he finished with just 54 AF as a solo ruck. The Hawks stretched out their CBA’s a little here, with Wingard, Shiels and Breust all earning meaningful time in the clearances while Mitchell and Worpel went skinnier. Clarko got pretty with his magnets pretty early in this match – Glass started in defence but was switched forward in the second half, as was Sicily in the final term (although obviously that backfired with his ACL). Burgoyne and Morrison were the two switched back. Nash (forward pocket), Impey (HFF), Jiath (HBF) and O’Brien (back-up ruck) were the other starting roles of note. 

TEAMSHEETS

Port Adelaide: Ebert, Lienert, Westhoff, Bonner INHouston, Ladhams, Duursma, Farrell OUT

  • Lienert replaces Houston, defense L4L.
  • Ebert replaces Farrell, forward flank L4L.
  • Westhoff replaces Ladhams, key forward and back-up ruck L4L.
  • That leaves Bonner (defender) for Duursma (wingman), which sparks a small restructure. Mayes was only playing off half-back to crack into the team, and probably deserves a spell in his primary position on the wing.

Notable outs: Rozee, Burton, Marshall, Duursma. 

Hawthorn: Scully, Howe, Cousins, Patton, Hartley, Hanrahan IN Nash, Morrison, Gunston, O’Meara, Frawley, Sicily OUT

  • Getting too specific here is pointless with the way Clarkson is treating these games, so generalised best guesses:
  • Hartley/Howe replaces Frawley/Sicily down back, L4L.
  • Patton/Hanrahan replaces Gunston/Nash up forward, L4L.
  • Cousins replaces O’Meara, L4L. Should earn significant midfield minutes, worth a nibble at $9,750.
  • Scully replaces Morrison in a wing/HFF rotation. 
  • Outside of the obvious unpredictability of this side, the midfield splits of Shiels and Wingard hold the most interest for me. They’re both mid-priced in DFS and the opportunity is there – it’s obviously unlikely that Cousins soaks up all of O’Meara’s vacated midfield time. 

Notable outs: Sicily, Smith, O’Meara, Henderson, Gunston. 

TRENDS

Port Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-least points to MID’s over the last 5 games (+0.0)
Port Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-least points to RUC’s over the last 5 games (-5.1)

Hawthorn has conceded the most points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 games (+16.7)
Hawthorn has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 games (+10.6)
Hawthorn has conceded the most points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 games (+10.3)
Hawthorn has conceded the 4th-most points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 games (+7.5)

HISTORY

Byrne-Jones – 126

Mitchell – DNP, 145, 118
Shiels – 113, 105
Worpel – 91
Cousins – 84

 

ESSENDON vs RICHMOND

TIO Stadium, 7.45pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$20,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 40 max)
WEATHER: 27 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Richmond $1.20 favourites, 118.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Draper was the big banana with Bellchambers rested, although failed to return a score worthy of the solo ruck role against an oppressive St Kilda duo. Devon Smith’s absence opened up some more midfield time, with Parish (+25% and 88 AF) the big beneficiary. Can this continue with some key inclusions looming? Langford (73 AF) was able to sneak up the field with Smith out – like Parish, he’s an autoplay with injuries ahead of him; but sadly he’s a permanent forward when those guys are fit. McKenna started forward but was switched back late with Guelfi. Ridley might have the best floor in the game, chugging along with 71 AF from 7 grabs – he hasn’t gone below 60 all year. Mutch (HFF/some wing), Begley (permanent forward), Snelling (HFF), Cutler (HBF), McDonald-Tipungwuti (forward pocket), and Clarke (HFF) were the dubious roles of note.

Like clockwork, Cotchin returned with his guaranteed KPI’s and was the player of the slate with 95 AF against the Suns. Bolton and Dusty joined him as full-time MID’s, with Lambert (wing/HFF) and Stack (HFF) taking the leftovers – which means Graham was left out in the cold of a wing once again. McIntosh played a full game on the opposite side and finally upswung with 81 AF. Pickett did all his work off a HF, with the ball down there enough for him to return value. Markov played off half-back and limped to value with 54 AF, but isn’t being looked for constantly by his teammates to break lines at AFL level like he is at the lower levels, and that’s hurting his fantasy output. Soldo’s goal makes his game (60 AF) look a lot better than it really was – he essentially just split the ruck contests and did nothing else. 

TEAMSHEETS

Essendon: Smith, Stringer, Francis, Ham, Mosquito, Redman, Bellchambers INZerk-Thatcher, McKenna, Townsend, Begley, Mutch, McKernan, Cutler OUT

  • Cheers, Bombers.
  • Francis/Redman replace Zerk-Thatcher/Cutler, defence L4L.
  • Stringer/Ham/Mosquito replace Townsend/Begley/McKenna, forward-line L4L.
  • Smith replaces Mutch in the midfield rotation. 
  • Bellchambers replaces McKernan to join Draper in the ruck unit. The last time they played together they ran a 63/37 ruck split in favour of Draper that day, but that was on debut – that’s just as likely to flip here with Bellchambers coming in off a week’s rest and the nature of Coronoball.
  • Do the Bombers flog Stringer in the middle again, or ease him back into the side with a less physically-demanding forward role? He was averaging 65% CBA presence pre-injury, so his role will be a huge factor in the fates of a big group of players. I’m leaning towards a forward role given the soft-tissue nature of his injury. 
  • With the inclusion of Smith and potentially Stringer into the midfield mix, quality time looks unlikely for Langford, while Parish’s CBA’s should be knocked back a few pegs too. 
  • Mosquito will debut in a small forward role at basement price, but doesn’t tempt me too much on a 4-game slate after averaging 54 from 10 VFL games last season. 

Notable outs: Heppell, Zaharakis, Fantasia, Hooker, McKernan. 

Richmond: Houli INBroad OUT

  • Easy, like-for like. Houli being back hurts the ceilings of Short and Baker, while Markov drops down another peg on the distributor totem pole at Richmond.
  • Don’t see any reason for a structure change here outside of in-game resting for Dusty or something like that, although Stack has been quiet for 2 weeks in a row as the last man in the midfield rotation. 
  • Graham’s inside time is being severely crippled by Cotchin – his three-week run of 45-68% came with the skipper out, and it’s basically been donuts all season outside of that patch. 

Notable outs: Edwards, Prestia, Caddy, Astbury, Nankervis. 

TRENDS

Essendon has conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY DEF’s over the last 5 games (-3.9)
Richmond has conceded the most points to RUC’s this year (+12.9)

Richmond has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 games (+13.8)
Richmond has conceded the 2nd-least points to KEY FWD’s over the last 5 games (-6.4)
Richmond has conceded the 4th-most points to RUC’s this year (+7.3)

HISTORY

Merrett – 117, 93, 102
Bellchambers – 111, 94, 109
Parish – 101, 89 (midfield roles)
Smith – DNP, 115, 129
Langford96, DNP, 84 (mid/fwd rotations)

Martin – 109, 118, 93
Houli – 144
Baker112 (forward role)
Short – DNP, 90, 104
Cotchin – DNP, DNP, 80

 

FREMANTLE vs SYDNEY

Optus Stadium, 8.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on
Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 16 degrees and mostly cloudy, possible showers late in the day.
BOOKIES: Fremantle $1.54 favourites, 103.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

It was a very consistent CBA mix for the Dockers this week, which is the surprising part. Walters returned from injury and for the first time this year, failed to attend a single CBA. You’d have to think it was an “easing in” job, and that Fremantle will return to scheduled programming with a 50/50 split with Fyfe moving forward, but it was worth noting. Speaking of scheduled programming – Blakely with 55% and a full-time midfield role is reminiscent of his days under Lyon. It’ll be tough for him to return value if his clock remains so limited (although he was coming off a shoulder niggle from the game prior). Aish and Cerra patrolled the wings, which relegated Bewley to the mere scraps, as his score reflected. Ryan was again dominant in defence with 83 AF, this time with just the 5 marks – it’s encouraging to see him fill up with other stats when he has to (like the slippery weather in this one). Consistent roles elsewhere. 

Same core inside group for the Swans, same small fluctuations between them – Rowbottom’s +31% boost did wonders for his DFS output with 77 AF. Mills (HBF) and Stephens (wing/HFF) were removed from the mix completely, but it was interesting to see Blakey with 3 attendances as a midfielder. He was monstrous with 90 AF completely out of the blue, although a lifeless GWS didn’t make it hard for him to return to form after a fortnight-long banishment from the senior team. He played up the ground with 78% of his touches in the back half, so it’ll be interesting to see if this continues. Dawson played a lot of his minutes as a forward target to facilitate the transition. Hayward played a defensive forward job on Haynes this week, with Bell and Foot both up near the big sticks for the majority of the game too. Thurlow (82 AF) had a very interesting role for the second week in a row – like Blakey, he started in attack but had the license to run all the way up the ground. It’s working for him too, with 80 AF in his first game for the year last week.

TEAMSHEETS

Fremantle: Henry IN Bewley OUT

  • Henry replaces Bewley across half-forward for his long-awaited debut. He averaged 84 AF at the U/18 Champs, so it’s someone I’m definitely interested in at $5k. That’s probably where the hype ends though – sadly, he’s a MID-only despite a likely small forward role, and Longmuir has already stated he’ll be at the lower end of game-time on debut. 
  • Expect Walters and Fyfe to return to their 50/50 split. Bewley’s exit from the midfield group allows Brayshaw to slide over to more of a wing assignment, in turn paving the way for Walters to fill his normal allotment of CBA’s. 
  • As mentioned earlier, be careful with your Blakely exposures – Walters’ inclusion only hurts his midfield time (and therefore TOG). 

Notable outs: Hogan, Bewley. 

Sydney: Kennedy INRampe OUT

  • Kennedy makes his return from injury for another vet in Rampe, which obviously triggers a restructure. Either Thurlow or Dawson will be asked to return to defence, so the only issue is the CBA’s. 
  • Papley’s 73% and 71% CBA presence from the past fortnight is the obvious casualty here – expect him to return to a full-time forward role (or close to it) as he was prior to Sydney’s injury crisis. 
  • Hayward was so effective on Haynes last week (just 2 marks and 25 AF) that I expect he’ll get a similar job on the in-form Ryan here. Full fade territory. 

Notable outs: Franklin, Heeney, Hewett, Rampe, Naismith. 

TRENDS

Fremantle has conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s over the last 5 games (+13.3)

Sydney has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN FWD’s over the last 5 games (+13.5)
Sydney has conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s over the last 5 games (+9.2)
Sydney has conceded the 3rd-most points to RUC’s over the last 5 games (+8.3)

HISTORY

Ryan – 112, 104
Brayshaw101 (mid/fwd role)
Fyfe – DNP, 97, 107 (tagged by Hewett)
Walters – 95, 99, DNP
Blakely79, 84 (HBF roles)

Lloyd – 132, 163, 93
Parker – 116, 97, 113

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