GOLD COAST vs CARLTON 

TIO Stadium, 7.50pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)
WEATHER: 29 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: Carlton $1.50 favourites, 121.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Swallow’s resting opened up a big slab of midfield minutes, with Weller’s bump expected (+29%) but Ainsworth’s (+27%) coming as more of a surprise. With just 30 AF, it’s fair to say that he didn’t do much with it. Anderson had a career-best night in a full-time wing role (time vacated by Weller, domino effect), winning a team-high 13 contested possessions. Holman didn’t get the midfield time we thought he might, playing off half forward again as the Suns allowed Dusty to run free. Witts and Soldo butted heads all night with neither really coming out victorious, but 76 AF is a great sign for the Suns ruckman after being down the previous few games (ankle injury). Lukosius (107 AF) was dominant with 27 touches and 7 marks in defence, as was Bowes (93 AF) – they’re really controlling the play back there. Flanders was active and impressive in his forward role, with his 36 AF not doing his game justice (and also highlighting his capped ceiling without midfield time). Fiorini was the 3rd wingman in the rotation (behind Ellis and Anderson) but might as well have not played, finishing with just 3 touches. 

Carlton shook things up in their middle mix for the first time in a while, with Murphy (+59%) and Kennedy (-41%) completely swapping roles for the day. The other notable change was in the ruck department, with De Koning and Casboult running an 80/20 split with Pittonet out injured. Both Kennedy and Setterfield saw significant dips in their TOG’s – is this Carlton’s version of active resting? Walsh looks to have figured out his wing role, dominating with 95 AF as he noticeably drifted back to get the cheapies in defence. Cottrell found more of the ball this week starting mostly off a HFF, while Fisher regressed to the mean with 50 AF and 0 goals as a permanent small forward. Honey brought energy as a small forward, but that was about it for the debutant. 

TEAMSHEETS

Gold Coast: Swallow, Harbrow, Lemmens INSexton, Fiorini, Holman OUT

  • The resting phase has concluded. Swallow replaces Fiorini in the midfield group, with Weller sliding back to more of a hybrid wing/guts role with Swallow primarily on the inside as per usual. Ainsworth heads back to his forward-line home. 
  • Lemmens replaces Sexton as a permanent forward, L4L. 
  • That leaves Harbow for Holman, which requires a slight reshuffle. Wil Powell is the most versatile small, so he probably moves up to a HFF. The other option is Lukosius as a swingman, but I see that being unlikely given his red-hot form in defence. 

Notable outs: Rowell, Fiorini.

Carlton: Martin, Pittonet INHoney, Kennedy OUT

  • Pittonet replaces Honey effectively, with De Koning sliding back to a pinch-hitting key forward role. Expect a 70-30 split in Pittonet’s favour.
  • Martin replaces Kennedy across half forward, L4L.
  • The only obvious question mark on Carlton is the last 2-3 slots in their CBA’s. Does Murphy hang around in there with his 77% share? Or do they return to their season blueprint with Martin (20% previous 3 average) and Setterfield (53%) re-absorbing those minutes?

Notable outs: Kreuzer, Kennedy.

TRENDS

Gold Coast has conceded 3rd-most fantasy points overall over the last 5 rounds
Gold Coast has conceded 3rd-most 80’s at 4.6 per game over the last 5 rounds
Gold Coast has conceded 4th-most points to MIDs over the last 5 rounds (+10.2)

Carlton has conceded 2nd-most points to KEY FWDs over the last 5 rounds (+6.8)
Carlton has conceded least points to GEN FWDs over the last 5 rounds (-6.6)

HISTORY

Miller 143, 149 (11 and 14 tackles)
Witts97, 126, 114 (Kreuzer, Lobbe, Lobbe)
Fiorini – 125, 114 (not playing obviously but wings versus Blues?)
Swallow – 73, 105

E Curnow – 125, 86, 97
Cripps55, 163, 162 (no tag, just a mare)
Murphy – 74, 135, 139
Walsh – 89, 119
Simpson – 90, 99, 101
Weitering – 92, 88

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Patrick Cripps – M – $14,110 DS

It’s been the inside midfielders getting off the leash against the Suns lately, with Cotchin (95) last week following Shiel (98), Steele (111), Hopper (107), Macrae (102) and Parker (110) in being the highest-scoring player on their respective teams against Gold Coast in the weeks prior (with the exception of a 117 from Whitfield). That’s about as strong as trends get. 

Cripps, of course, has a storied history against the Suns. Every man and his dog (and it’s fleas) had big shares in the Carlton skipper in DFS, only to be met with a disaster as he managed just 55 AF amidst a comedy of uncharacteristic errors. And why was everyone on board the Patty Train? Scores of 163 and 162 in his previous meetings will do that. 

Cripps has a pretty dirty floor due to the tag worry every single week, but his upside is too juicy to ignore in GPP’s here. Make him your priority. 

BEST VALUE: David Swallow – M – $12,650 DS 

Being the only Gold Coast midfielder rested last week with the club coming off a 4-day break, you’d think that Swallow is going to be force-fed inside minutes here. He’s been down lately with a 57-point form line, so this is a great opportunity to return to his Round 5-8 best, where he scored 94, 70, 98 and 98 on the trot. A solid record against the Blues (73, 105) doesn’t hurt. 

BEST RUCK: Jarrod Witts – R – $12,770 DS 

Neither Pittonet ($10,090 RUC) in his first game back from injury, nor De Koning ($5,430 RUC/FWD) in his mostly-forward role tempt me here, so it’s back to the old faithful with the solo ruck role. Witts was much more mobile last week than he has been recently, finishing with 76 AF in a nil-all draw against Soldo in the ruck. 

This is a pretty vanilla pick but there’s beauty in the safety. The lowest score a ruckman has produced against Pittonet in the last 6 games is 68 (Ceglar), with those ruckmen involved scoring 7.4 points better on average – and Witts is a much better ruckman than most. 

BEST STAT: Marc Murphy – F/M – $11,650 DS 

This is purely an upside pick for GPP’s – if Murphy gets anywhere close to that 77% CBA presence he clocked last week, then he hits value every time. There’s no guarantee that the inside role continues of course – especially with Jack Martin back in the mix – but Murphy has shown he can still upswing on a HFF with 82 AF in Round 11. 

Low risk, big reward – just look at those scores of 135 and 139 against the Suns over the last two years.

Leave a Comment

Scroll to Top