SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)

 

WESTERN BULLDOGS vs ADELAIDE

Metricon, 1.05pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$10,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 20 max)
WEATHER: 22 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: Western Bulldogs $1.13 favourites, 129.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Dunkley’s return has shaken up the CBA’s for the Bulldogs, with Bailey Smith being a noticeable victim. He averaged 76% CBA presence over the first 9 rounds, but that’s dropped to 47% and 21% the last two weeks. Dunkley isn’t exactly filling up on inside clock himself, sitting at 36% since his return (compared to 82% before), with his excess minutes on a wing. Libba has maintained his KPI’s for the most part however, with Macrae also used full-time on the inside – you can see what it’s doing for his scoring. English was solid without standing out against a solo McInerney. Lipinski did a bit of everything, spending time across half forward, on a wing, and in the guts with 5 CBA’s – he’s super hard to predict with his versatility. Outside of the evolving midfield mix though, roles were very consistent.

Laird’s move into the midfield headlines Adelaide’s CBA report here, with another full-time expedition into the clearances that bore fruit with 139 AF. Matt Crouch and Keays joined him in the core, with cameos from Schoenberg and Seedsman – this is easily the best their midfield has looked this year. Brodie Smith was eased back into the team with a very busy distributing role off half-back. Doedee was looming as an interceptor until a hamstring injury ended his season. Sholl stepped up in his second game with an impressive 57 AF across half-back. Stengle didn’t get the midfield minutes he was gifted a couple of weeks ago, but limped to value with 2 goals. Mackay did Mackay things off a wing, drifted back to get the easy pill. McAsey was back in defence this week – does he become the interceptor with Doedee missing? 

TEAMSHEETS

Western Bulldogs: Cavarra, Hunter, West, R Smith IN Johannisen, Bruce, Vandermeer, Cordy OUT

  • Cavarra replaces Vandermeer, half forward L4L.
  • The rest is up in the air, unfortunately. Two defenders in Johannisen and Cordy are out without a recognised backman to replace them, so the Bulldogs will have to get creative here. Ed Richards probably heads back, but that still leaves them one skinny. Could Hunter ease back into AFL footy with a cheeky back flank role? Roarke Smith is the other that could help out back there based on his role from previous seasons. 
  • West likely plays a forward role, in line with his usage so far this season. 
  • Assuming for the moment that Hunter plays his customary wing role, that further clogs up the midfield. Lipinski is the “last man in, first man out”, while Bailey Smith’s numbers are trending down. Be careful with their exposures. 

Notable outs: Crozier, Johannisen. 

Adelaide: Sloane, Talia, Poholke, Murphy, Kelly INCrocker, Fogarty, McHenry, Lynch, Doedee OUT

  • Talia replaces Doedee, L4L.
  • Murphy replaces McHenry, L4L. 
  • Poholke replaces Crocker as a forward.
  • That leaves Sloane (midfield) and Kelly (defense) to replace Fogarty (forward) and Lynch (forward), which requires a magnet shuffle. McAsey probably returns to the forward line to replace Fogarty, which would allow Kelly to slot into defence.
  • Sloane’s CBA’s will come at the expense of someone, and Shoenberg was eerily quiet last week. Matt Crouch is a popular whipping boy when things get tough, so a half forward rap across the knuckles isn’t out of the question. 
  • With the extra defender added to the squad, the likelihood of a return to defence remains relatively low for Laird. Should be another midfield assignment for him, unless Sloane’s return means Laird to the backline and Brodie Smith up to wing is deemed better “balance” – which I feel is unlikely after how well Laird and Smith both played last week in their current roles.

Notable outs: B Crouch, Doedee, Lynch, Milera, Gibbs. 

TRENDS

Western Bulldogs have conceded the 3rd-most fantasy points overall this year.
Western Bulldogs have conceded the 2nd-most points to FWD’s this year.
Western Bulldogs have conceded the most points to RUC’s this year.

Adelaide has conceded the most fantasy points overall this year.
Adelaide has conceded the most 80’s at 4.7 per game this year.
Adelaide has conceded the most points to DEF’s over the last 5 rounds.
Adelaide has conceded the most points to MID’s this year.
Adelaide has conceded the most points to FWD’s this year.

HISTORY

Macrae – 109, 144, 103
Bontempelli – 125, 92, 92
Dunkley – 106
Hunter – 105, 90, 97
English – 90
B Smith – 88

M Crouch – 150, DNP, 110
Sloane – 116, DNP, 105
Seedsman – 107, 92
B Smith – 100, DNP, 80
Laird – 94, 102, 135

 

ST KILDA vs ESSENDON

Gabba, 3.35pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 30 max)
WEATHER: 20 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: St Kilda $1.42 favourites, 131.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Ryder’s late withdrawal rolled out the red carpet to solo ruck time for Marshall, but he failed to capitalise with a back-ended 75 AF effort. St Kilda’s injury list is concentrated on their midfield so they added another Jack to the mix, with Bytel looking very comfortable with 52 AF in his 76% CBA share in a thrashing from Geelong. Sinclair hung around in the midfield but it could be short-lived with Jones back from his rest and Ross potentially returning in the short term. Ed Phillips upswung with 2 early goals in a HFF role, while Hill downswung in a pure wing deployment. Hind and Butler struggled to get involved with the ball scarcely down their end. Geary had the job of shutting down Tom Stewart and sacrificed any desire to possess the footy to do so. 

Bellchambers slotted in for Draper and started well before drifting out of the game late – he doesn’t seem to be part of Essendon’s long term plans. Parish earned some midfield time out of nowhere and what do you know? He responded in fantasy with 93 AF. If only we knew when this was going to happen… McDonald-Tipungwuti (unsurprisingly) and McGrath (surprisingly) copped the drops to let him in. Langford is now a full-time forward until further notice. Ridley came in under an injury cloud but was ultimately unhampered, collecting 10 marks in his 95 AF – did he get a boost with Hurley managed? Snelling looked to have a wing role this week, finishing with 81 AF – more data required though, good chance he just upswung off a HFF. McKenna (HFF), Guelfi (back pocket), Gleeson (back pocket) and Cutler (wing/HFF) were the other roles of note, with Zaharakis (HFF) succumbing to a season-ending injury. 

TEAMSHEETS

St Kilda: Lonie, Ryder, Ross, Jones INKent, Phillips, Gresham, Carlisle OUT

  • Jones replaces Gresham, inside midfielder L4L.
  • Lonie replaces Kent, small forward L4L.
  • Ryder effectively replaces Carlisle, with Geary likely moving back to defense. If the Saints want to keep Geary forward to play a defensive role on Ridley, Battle could head back to play a key defensive role as Carlisle coverage.
  • Ryder and Marshall should return to their standard 65/35 ruck split. 
  • That leaves Ross for Phillips, which requires a small structure change. Ross to a wing/guts hybrid role would make sense, forcing Sinclair into more forward minutes than he’s filled over the past 3 weeks. I personally see Bytel a better fit as an inside MID with Sinclair forward than the other way around – his CBA’s will be dialed back either way with Ross and Jones returning, however. 

Notable outs: Dunstan, Hannebery, Gresham. 

Essendon: Townsend, Begley, Mutch, Hurley, Draper INFrancis, Zaharakis, Smith, Redman, Bellchambers OUT

  • Draper for Bellchambers.
  • Hurley for Francis.
  • Begley replaces Zaharakis across half forward. 
  • Mutch replaces Devon Smith across half forward.
  • That leaves Townsend (forward) for Redman (defender), which requires a structure change. Cutler has been very quiet on a wing the past fortnight – does he head back to the half-back role he played at Brisbane? Dylan Clarke won most of his touches in the back half last week, so maybe the Bombers lean into that instead?
  • Devon Smith’s rest opens the door for Parish to increase his CBA’s again, or at least hold last week’s helping. Has to be in your player pool for sure. 

Notable outs: Stringer, Heppell, Daniher, Fantasia, Hooker, Bellchambers, Smith, Redman. 

TRENDS

St Kilda has conceded the 2nd-least points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds.

Essendon has conceded the most 80’s at 4.7 per game this year.
Essendon has conceded the 3rd-most points to MID’s this year.
Essendon has conceded the most points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

Marshall 103 (solo ruck)
Steele96, 124 (tagged Merrett)
Billings – 94, 102
Ross – 85, 143

Merrett99, 119, 144 (tagged by Steele)
Shiel – 101
Smith – 86, 125
Hurley – 103, 99, 113

 

WEST COAST vs HAWTHORN

Optus Stadium, 6.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$25,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 50 max)
WEATHER: 13 degrees and light rain, easing throughout the game.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.14 favourites, 111.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Business as usual for the Coasters, as you can see from their largely colourless section of the table above. Naitanui’s 73% TOG is yet another increase in game-time, his highest since 2016. Redden didn’t get a single CBA this week, playing purely wing/HFF with everyone fit ahead of him in the midfield mix. Duggan put his hand up as a fantasy option with 11 marks and 81 AF, especially early as the Eagles dominated possession in their back half – Nelson, Cole and Rotham all scored more than expected as a result. Consistent roles across the board.

McEvoy and Ceglar flipped in their ruck timeshare, so stay far away from the Hawthorn big men in DFS until they sort out their hierarchy in the ruck. Mitchell’s midfield renaissance (+23% CBA presence) came at the expense of Shiel (-25%), who spent most of his time on a wing. Injuries to Smith and Henderson means that’s probably his reality moving forward in the short term. Sicily was swung forward late again – a move Clarkson favours when the margin becomes unassailable. Impey was the one swapped back after having zero influence as a forward. Morrison was moved out of defence to a wing/HFF role, allowing Scrimshaw and Day to line-up across half-back with some role security. 

TEAMSHEETS

West Coast: Ainsworth, McGovern, Reid INWaterman, Cameron, Duggan OUT

  • McGovern replaces Duggan in defence, with Rotham sliding down to a smaller opponent. 
  • Ainsworth replaces Cameron as a small forward. Not a great fantasy role for him. 
  • Reid replaces Waterman as the medium forward. He’s a mature-ager so expect him to have an immediate impact, although he’ll be just that – an impact player. Will scale heavily on goals. 

Notable outs: Duggan. 

Hawthorn: Jiath, Glass, Burgoyne INSmith, Ceglar, Scully OUT

  • Ceglar is out, leaving McEvoy as the big banana in the ruck.
  • Forwards in Glass and Burgoyne replace wingmen in Smith and Scully. Morrison already showed that he was capable as Smith’s replacement on the wing mid-game against the Dockers, while Shiels can expect a full outing on the other wing. 
  • Wingard, Breust and Burgoyne are options for topping up the CBA’s.

Notable outs: Henderson, Smith, Ceglar. 

TRENDS

Hawthorn has conceded the 2nd-most fantasy points overall this year.
Hawthorn has conceded the 3rd-most 80’s at 4.6 per game this year.
Hawthorn has conceded the most points to DEF’s this year.

West Coast has conceded the least HITOUTS this year.

HISTORY

Gaff – 129, 119, 154
Shuey – 108, 142, DNP
Yeo – 110, 87, 93 (tagged by Howe)
Duggan97 (12 marks)
Redden – 92, 98, 97
Sheed – 87, 94, 81

Mitchell – DNP, DNP, 135
O’Meara – 108, 136, 112
Shiels 58, 125, 111 (no role change – just a bad game)
Sicily – 93, 59, 80

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