RICHMOND vs GOLD COAST 

Gabba, 7.10pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$60,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$8,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 23 max)
WEATHER: 15 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Richmond $1.28 favourites, 129.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Cotchin’s resting eased the strain on Richmond’s CBA’s (boosts to Dusty and Ross), but also threw up some surprises. Caddy moved to a hybrid guts/wing role with his first significant CBA involvement for the season, while Stack remained in the mix as the Tigers continued to covet creativity over accumulation. The Tigers were off as a team though, which is probably evident when you see that Rioli was their highest fantasy scorer with goalless 76 AF from a forward pocket. Bolton was a full-time midfielder again with his 86% CBA presence, but was a victim of the lack of control Richmond had over the game. McIntosh (wing), Lambert (wing/HFF), and Pickett (wing/HFF) were the roles of the players dependent on those in front of them. 

It was another even midfield effort for the Gold Coast this week, with it being Swallow’s turn (after Miller and Weller in recent weeks) to take a small hit to allow Anderson into the clearances. Fiorini looked like an inspired pick with 50 points at the half off a wing, but won just 2 more possessions for the game to finish on 62 AF. Frustrating. Witts had a positive ruck match-up but couldn’t take advantage in DFS despite winning the hitouts against Bellchambers 31-18 – worryingly, he hasn’t registered a mark in his last 2 outings. Flanders was solid with 39 AF off a HFF on debut, which will be his role moving forward without any injuries ahead of him. Lemmens (38 AF) continues to be more sizzle than substance as a forward pocket specialist. 

TEAMSHEETS

Richmond: Graham, Markov, Cotchin INRoss, Caddy, Eggmolesse-Smith OUT

  • Markov replaces Egg Boy across half back.
  • Graham replaces Caddy on a wing.
  • Cotchin replaces Ross as an inside midfielder. 
  • No significant structure change here from Richmond, so don’t expect anything crazy with roles. Most of the changes will be in the midfield splits – does Dusty play a bit more forward with Cotchin back? Does Graham play pure wing or complement it some inside time like Caddy? How much midfield time does Stack get? Etc.

Notable outs: Astbury, Prestia, Nankervis, Edwards, Houli.

Gold Coast: Sexton, Graham, Holman IN Swallow, Harbrow, Lemmens OUT

  • Sexton replaces Lemmens, small forward L4L. 
  • Graham replaces Harbrow in defence (although probably takes a taller opponent).
  • That leaves Holman for Swallow. I can see a couple of things happening here – Anderson has been introduced to the inside midfield lately and this is his chance for a big slicer of the pie. On the other hand, Holman’s had to play a weird defensive forward role and would love the chance to get down and dirty in the guts – I think a Dusty tag is a distinct possibility here. 

Notable outs: Rowell.

TRENDS

Richmond has conceded the 3rd-most points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds.

Gold Coast has conceded the 3rd-most fantasy points overall over the last 5 rounds.
Gold Coast has conceded the 2nd-most 80’s at 4.2 per game over the last 5 rounds.
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to DEF’s over the last 5 rounds.
Gold Coast has conceded the most points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds.

HISTORY

Martin 58, 85, 112 (tagged by Scheer)
Cotchin – 97, 59, 94
Bolton – 116
Rioli – 80, 89, 93
Riewoldt – DNP, 192, DNP (casual 10 snags and 14 marks)

Witts – 106, 80
Swallow – 106, 101
Fiorini – 83, 110, 84

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Trent Cotchin – M – $11,540 DS 

The Tigers have shown this year that they prefer to rest Cotchin traditionally rather than in-game, with the skipper averaging 74% TOG and 76% CBA presence this season. So we know exactly what we’re going to get from Cotchin after a week’s rest against the Suns – roughly 70% game-time as a full-time midfielder. Cotchin’s scores after not playing the week before this season: 86 and 70, making him excellent value at $11,540.

With Gold Coast starting to leak to MID’s again, the veteran Tiger is in a great spot to return DFS value tonight. 

BEST VALUE: Oleg Markov – M – $7,020 DS

Not only are Gold Coast leaking to MID’s, but DEF’s are starting to get off the leash against them lately – understandable given that the Suns have only won one of their last 7 games. Despite being named as a MID on Draftstars, Markov will play across half-back as Egg-Boy’s replacement tonight and the hope is that he can be the line-breaker that he’s been at VFL and scratch-match level. 

I’m optimistically expecting more than the 47 he posted against the Bulldogs earlier this year with the extra DvP boost and one less rebounder in the side to contend with. I think Markov will be underowned as a MID, so could be a valuable point of difference if he goes big.

BEST RUCK: Sam Day – R/F – $7,750 DS

Witts has been uninspiring since rolling his ankle a few weeks ago, scoring 49, 55 and 60 against weak opposition. He’s still doing all the right things in the ruck contests, but critically is averaging just 1 tackle and 1 mark over that stretch – well down on his 3 marks and 2 tackles per game previously. He should beat Soldo in the pure ruck battle, but $12,610 is a lot to pay for someone who’s struggling to cover the ground.

I don’t have many good things to say about Soldo either – a highest score of 65 in his last 7 games (that includes two scores of 30) against a far superior tap ruckman isn’t an encouraging form guide. 

So tonight might be a good opportunity to throw the RUC position with some Sam Day action. He’s scored 67 and 40 in his last two games this year, and has good history against the Tigers with 79 and 90 in his last two against them. Better than a kick in the teeth.

BEST STAT: Lachie Weller – M/D – $12,610 DS 

With Gold Coast’s CBA’s almost watertight over the past month, the one leak has been Weller dropping from 62% CBA presence to 49% in that time – and his average has followed suit, falling from 72 to just 59. 

This one is pretty simple – no Swallow potentially means more inside time for Weller against a side that he scored 94 against last year. Take advantage of his dual-position eligibility here to unlock some unique edge line-ups that could win you a GPP.

BEST RETHINK: Dustin Martin – M/F – $13,920 DS 

Dusty was tagged by Scheer the last time these two teams met, scoring just 58 AF in a mostly midfield role. So the precedent is set – with Holman sliding back into the squad and a midfield spot opening up, could we see a tagging job from the fringe Sun?

Martin is one of the few Tigers with an actual fantasy ceiling so you need to have shares in him, but make sure you’re accounting for a potential negating job being imposed on the Brownlow Medallist – he has a dirty floor. 

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