MELBOURNE vs BRISBANE

GIANTS Stadium, 7.50pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 125 max)
$3,000 USD on Draftkings ($15 entry, 7 max)
WEATHER: 13 degrees and light rain.
BOOKIES: Melbourne $1.77 favourites, 163.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Harmes’ tagging job on the Bulldogs’ underrated clearance machine kept his CBA’s extremely healthy, and 97 AF was a just reward for his efforts in keeping Libba to just 4 clearances (as he averaged a league-high 9 coming into the Round). He’s keeping Jordon out of the inside core, with the rookie’s fantasy appeal freefalling following CBA shares of 24% and 28% in the last fortnight, ranking as two of his lowest for the season. Ed Langdon was concussed late in the piece and will need coverage in Round 12 due to the strict protocols surrounding head knocks; Neal-Bullen was the Demon tasked with covering the leftover wing time from Langdon and Brayshaw, so he could potentially see a bigger role against the Lions. Melksham has received interest in DFS lately due to his bargain price and part-time CBA involvement, but game clocks of just 54% and 63% in the last fortnight are really limiting his output. 

It’s becoming a bit of a trend lately that Zorko sees reduced CBA’s (-11%) whenever the Lions get off to a big early lead, wisely resting their veteran game-breaker and his history of soft tissue injuries whenever they can. It was Deven Robertson who absorbed the flipside of that, and he’ll threaten 80 AF anytime he receives this much CBA consideration (63%). Robinson murdered the Giants with 147 AF, but this was purely a monster upswing with 4 goals and 12 marks in his usual defensive wing post. Consistent roles elsewhere for the Lions on a 7-game unbeaten run, with Ah Chee remaining in defence while Lester sits on the sidelines with his hamstring issue. 

TEAMSHEETS

Melbourne: Sparrow IN – Langdon OUT
Notable outs: Viney, Langdon, Tomlinson. 

  • They were cruising without Viney, but adding the underrated Langdon to the medical bay really turns a big area of strength into a question mark for the Dees.
  • Sparrow should replace Langdon as a L4L on the wing, with Neal-Bullen again covering the leftovers.
  • Harmes had that tagging job on Libba last week, and its success means that there is a key Lion probably looking at a tough evening. Could he go straight to the returning Brownlow Medalist Neale?
  • Take care with a couple of small forwards for Melbourne – Pickett has lost the midfield time he was getting earlier this season when he was pumping out big totals, while Melksham’s minutes have been heavily limited.

Brisbane: Neale, Lester IN – Mathieson, Madden OUT
Notable outs: Mathieson, J Berry, Gardiner. 

  • Lester for Madden, L4L in defence. 
  • Neale for Mathieson, L4L as an inside midfielder. Of course, everyone else in the midfield will adjust their specific roles to cater for the reigning Brownlow Medalist, so we’re looking at another 50/50 mid-forward role for Zorko, while Robertson can expect to lose a fair chunk of his CBA’s. 
  • Ah Chee to remain in defence without a restructure. Hasn’t been fantasy-friendly for him this year.

TRENDS

Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to KEY DEF’s in L5.
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-most points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Melbourne has conceded the 3rd-fewest points to KEY FWD’s in L5.
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s in L5.
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-most points to ELITE MID’s in L5.
Melbourne has conceded the fewest raw points to RUC’s this year.

Brisbane has conceded the 2nd-fewest points to GEN DEF’s in L5.
Brisbane has conceded the 4th-fewest points to KEY FWD’s in L5.
Brisbane has conceded the 4th-fewest points to GEN FWD’s in L5.

HISTORY

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Jarryd Lyons – M – $15,700 DS

All eyes will be on the returning Lachie Neale at $13,960 in DFS, but so will those of the Demons with a potential Harmes tag brewing. So, once again, the criminally underrated Lyons will go under the radar. 

He gets ticks across the board here – great DvP match-up against a midfield that still has weaknesses defensively, excellent history against the Demons with 135 and 149 in his last two, and just one score under 95 all season. Pick with confidence. 

BEST VALUE: Tom Sparrow – M – $5,850 DS 

4 games in a row as the medical sub has tanked Sparrow’s price, and his first few games were religiously in the 65% TOG range. So, what’s changed? Firstly, he’s starting in the 22, which is a huge tick (if you ask me). But secondly, he’s looking at an actual full game as a, actual midfielder with both Viney and Langdon missing. 

A 60 looks like low-hanging fruit here given the role and TOG boost, with 80 well within reach – you won’t find better value on this slate. Or most slates, for that matter.

BEST RUCK: Max Gawn – R – $15,710 DS

By process of elimination, we land on Gawn. McInerney has to solo ruck against the most restrictive ruckman of the past decade – big cross. Daniher has to square up against the best backline in the competition, and then runs into Max when he chops out in the ruck – cross, cross. Fellow Demon Luke Jackson isn’t much better with a stingy match-up against the lauded Brisbane defense.

Nothing here is particularly appealing – outside of getting Gawn for slightly cheaper than we’ve been able to for the past few seasons – so this is one slate where I’ll just pay up for large shares of the safe option and take my risks elsewhere. 

BEST STAT: Grant Birchall – D – $10,880 DS 

The Demons have been giving up plenty of points to rebounding defender types despite their unbeaten run, so Birchall presents himself as an option. But why not Rich

Well, $3.1k extra cash in the bank for starters. Besides, this pair regularly split the kick-ins, so there’s no reason why Birchall can’t be the one who upswings instead of his higher-profile teammate – like Rounds 7 and 9 for instance, where Rich scored 80 and 86 to Birchall’s 106 and 110.

BEST RETHINK: Mitch Robinson – M – $11,770 DS

Common sense to fade the guy who just scored a massive 147 with 4 goals from the midfield, but then there’s his price-tag – sub-$12k is going to suck a lot of punters in. I’m here to tell you to consider other options, because Lachie Neale is back in town and these guys do not play well together. In fact, Robinson has been the biggest beneficiary of the Brownlow Medalist’s recent absence, averaging a massive 101 without the ball-winner, compared to just 66 points alongside him. 

Even taking out last week’s monster score, Robbo averaged 89 in the previous month with a lowest score of 83 – a mark he topped only twice in his 6 games alongside Neale to kick off the season.

 

Thanks to Morts at DFS Australia for his all awesome tools, plus websites such as FanFooty, DT Talk/The Traders, Footywire, AFL Tables, Draft Central, AFL Ratings, Daily Fantasy Rankings and DT Live for their various stats and references.

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