GEELONG vs PORT ADELAIDE

Metricon, 7.50pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 150 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)
WEATHER: 19 degrees and partly cloudy, low chance of showers late in the day, humid.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.71 favourites, 124.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Geelong smoothed out their CBA’s as part of their active resting concept this week. Dangerfield played a 70/30 M/F split that was short of his usual midfield presence, but still much improved from last week’s 15% CBA share. Parfitt only had 38% even though he was coming off the rest, while Guthrie, Steven and Duncan had haircuts on their numbers with the extra midfielder in the mix. Blicavs played on a wing again, backing up Stanley in the ruck. Menegola was an absolute monster on the other wing, having a serious impact at both ends with both intercept marks and a couple of snags to his name. Duncan was the other wingman in the rotation, of course. Stewart was forward-tagged by Geary, explaining his lukewarm score in a game that should’ve favoured him heavily. Tuohy played up the ground again, starting on a HFF and doing his work from there. Rohan (90 AF) and Hawkins (85 AF) feasted on St Kilda’s undersized defence. 

With Boak and Wines enjoying their active rest the week before, their KPI’s were juiced up back to normal levels – and they had the fantasy scores to match. It came at the expense of Gray (mostly forward) and Rozee (late withdrawal), with Rockliff maintaining his big CBA numbers after staying fresh with a couple of weeks out of the senior side. Lycett returned and wrestled back his primary ruck role, and Ladhams impressed with 2 goals amongst his 90AF in a full-time forward gig. Houston remains the General in defence, but was much better with 70 AF in a positive DvP match-up against the Tigers. Sutcliffe was a late inclusion for Rozee and played a foreign forward role so as not to disturb Port’s planned structures and rotations. 13 AF and zero kick-ins for McKenzie this week.

TEAMSHEETS

Geelong: Simpson, Fogarty INClose, Steven OUT

  • Simpson in for Close, L4L. He’s been chained to a forward flank outside of that one game where Geelong were mauled by injury early, so expect more of the same.
  • Fogarty for Steven, L4L. Fogarty attended 31% of CBA’s the week before his rest so Geelong have shown a willingness to play him up the ground – but he’ll be heavy FWD in any split he gets. 
  • Steven’s management gives the Cats the chance to tighten up their CBA’s. Dangerfield will return to his 70%+ role at some point, while Parfitt was unders last week too.
  • No structure change, so looks like Menegola/Duncan/Blicavs wing rotation, with Blicavs to cover in the ruck. Tuohy to remain in his high HF role.

Notable outs: Dahlhaus, Ablett, Fort.

Port Adelaide: Mayes, Motlop INSutcliffe, Lienert OUT

  • Mayes for Lienert, L4L.
  • Motlop for Sutcliffe, L4L.
  • No forced structure change means HBF for Houston again.
  • The Lycett/Ladhams 75/25 split worked last week, so don’t expect a change in  their ruck thought process there.
  • You’d expect Port to just run it back in a normal season with these personnel changes, but the condensed fixture could pack some surprises. Gray and Rockliff haven’t had rests for a while so could spend more time up forward than normal, perhaps? Boak had an “active” rest 2 rounds ago but is always a chance for load management through his role/TOG being a veteran. 

Notable outs: Rozee, Marshall, Burton.

TRENDS

Geelong has conceded the least fantasy points overall this year.
Geelong has conceded the 3rd-least 80’s at 2.5 per game this year.
Geelong has conceded the least points to DEF’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the least points to FWD’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s this year. 

Port Adelaide has conceded the least fantasy points overall over the last 5 rounds.
Port Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-least 80’s at 2.0 per game this year.
Port Adelaide has conceded the 4th-least points to DEF’s this year.
Port Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-least points to MID’s this year.
Port Adelaide has conceded the least points to FWD’s over the last 5 rounds.
Port Adelaide has conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s this year. 

HISTORY

Duncan – 116, 90, 109
Dangerfield – 110, 105, 125
Selwood 71, 112, 122 (weird wing role)
Stewart – 84, 65, 74
Parfitt – 82, 89
Menegola – 103, 99
Stanley – 45, 79 (45 hitouts vs Westhoff/Howard duo)

Boak – 121, 101
Lycett – 130 (41 hitouts and 24 touches vs Stanley)
Gray115, 126, 73 (midfield roles)
Wines77, 89, 111 (first game back from injury)
Houston – 89, 89

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Tom Rockliff – M – $14,190 DS 

Rocky’s a big GPP target here. He has the biggest ceiling on this slate yet comes in as the 6th-most expensive player on the menu, even after scores of 102, 123 and 82 for an entree. My biggest source of optimism with Rockliff here is that the CBA’s have been there since his banishment from the senior team ended, averaging a team-high 78% over those three weeks. His split are crystal clear in that regard:

Under 70% CBA share: 64 average (3 games)
Over 70% CBA share: 86 average (5 games)

BEST VALUE: Mark Blicavs – D – $10,310 DS 

Both backlines have a rough match-up DvP-wise on Friday night, so why not pick the guy that isn’t even playing in defence? Blicavs has been deployed off a wing and in the ruck lately, averaging 70 points in his last 4 games (compared to just 47 as a permanent defender previously). We’re yet to see a ceiling from him on the wing, but the DEF slots are super tough on this slate – sometimes it’s just easier to pick the guy who’s had a lowest score of 62 over the last month and make calls with greater conviction elsewhere.

BEST RUCK: Scott Lycett – R – $11,990 DS 

Lycett was the big banana last week and with Ladhams performing as a forward, my confidence that it continues is as high as it could be in Coronaball. The scoring itself wasn’t there with 53 AF, but I’m willing to give him some leeway in his first game back from a medium-term injury. I’m not expecting anything like the 130 he dunked on Stanley’s head last year, but with Geelong conceding the 2nd-most points to rucks this year, I’m happy to leverage the DvP here in GPP’s.

In Cash games though, the solo ruck role for Stanley will probably save you any unnecessary heart strain. 

BEST STAT: Brandon Parfitt – M/F – $12,390 DS

With Geelong’s Communist approach to the CBA’s last week, Parfitt (38%) had his lowest centre square involvement in a game this year – and he still managed a 69-point score. Nice. I’m expecting a 20-30% boost in his midfield time with Steven being managed this week, which puts him right back into the selection frame in a forward-line logjam in the $10k-$13k price range.  

BEST RETHINK: Robbie Gray – M/F – $10,220 DS 

Gray’s scores have read 56, 68, 79 over the past month, a steady weekly incline that has created a DFS bubble that’s ready to pop. And it’ll burst when his midfield time regresses to the mean – he’s averaged a 61% CBA share over Port’s last 3 games, compared to just 26% prior to that.

Logic says he needs a rest at some point and Port has a fully-fit midfield – it’s coming. Don’t overown him when it arrives.

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