WEDNESDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$50,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings

 

GEELONG vs NORTH MELBOURNE

Gabba, 5.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 30 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Geelong $1.37 favourites, 125.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Don’t be fooled by the Ratugolea/Blicavs CBA split – they pulled the same magic trick by using Esava at the centre bounces with Blitz around the ground. Duncan spent more time on the inside this week, with Parfitt’s CBA’s trending in the same direction as his fantasy average – but overall they had a similar mix to Round 8. Guthrie’s a DFS beast every time his TOG is north of 70%. Tuohy once again played up the ground and produced a handy score of 83 AF – is this his best fantasy role now? Menegola had his own wing as per usual, while Simpson was utilised off a HFF again. Close and Fogarty were permanent forwards and scored accordingly.

It was a genuine role swap for Higgins and Dumont this week, flipping their inside and wing roles completely. Anderson remains the prized bull with Cunnington out, pumping out a 123 AF in a team-high 83% CBA presence. Daw was the primary back-up for Goldstein, who took a break from running himself into the ground with season-lows in 80% TOG and 73% CBA’s. Simpkin is struggling to regain his early season form after an ankle issue, but is still getting the inside time to claw his way back to relevance. LDU finally showed some ability, scoring 78 AF with 22 CBA’s. He’ll be extremely DFS relevant if those midfield minutes continue. McDonald and McKay both cashed in on the DEF’s vs Adelaide trend with season-highs, but no lasting role change significance there outside of the soft match-up. Hall did nothing to diminish his reputation as a downhill skier with this 112 AF effort. Pittard played up forward again in a defensive role, and got involved on the scoreboard with 2 goals. It looks like a good position for him – at least he can’t screw anything up too badly. Daw started up forward but ended up down back and in the ruck, he was a true utility in his return game. Bonar was tried as an inside MID again but had zero influence on the contest in plenty of game-time.

TEAMSHEETS

Geelong: Selwood, Steven, Stanley, Atkins, Guthrie IN – Parfitt, Constable, Kolodjashnij, Ratugolea, Rohan OUT

  • Selwood for Constable in the guts, L4L.
  • Steven replaces Parfitt in a HFF/guts rotation, L4L.
  • Stanley replaces Ratugolea effectively, which allows Blicavs to return to a full-time defender post.
  • Zach Guthrie replaces Kolodjashnij in defence.
  • Atkins replaces Rohan as a permanent forward.
  • Geelong have loaded up on an extra DEF here essentially and have a very small forward line on paper, so you’re looking at one of either Taylor or Henderson playing as a marking target in attack. Tuohy remains on a HFF most likely.
  • Duncan probably moves to more of a wing slant in his hybrid role with Selwood returning. Menegola had his own wing last week and should again here.

Notable outs: Ablett, Fort, Dahlhaus, Parfitt, Constable, Ratugolea, Clark. 

North: Brown, Polec, Walker, Hosie IN – Larkey, Davies-Uniacke, Hayden, Taylor OUT

  • Brown replaces Larkey, L4L.
  • Polec replaces LDU in the midfield rotation, but plays more wing with Higgins and Hall likely to move back inside.
  • Walker replaces Taylor off a HFF.
  • Hosie is a FWD who will make his debut and comes in for the defender in Hayden, suggesting a reshuffle. Bonar to defence would do the trick, although Pittard is another option sitting up forward. Hosie averaged 2 goals and 67 AF in the VFL last year, but he’s also a 3rd-tall type that usually struggles on debut. He’s basement-priced so have a look, but don’t go too crazy.
  • If Pittard stays as a defensive forward, Tom Stewart would be in the firing line.

Notable outs: Cunnington, Ziebell, Taylor, LDU. 

TRENDS

Geelong has conceded the 3rd-least fantasy points overall this year.
Geelong has conceded the least points to DEF’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s over the last 5 rounds.
Geelong has conceded the least points to FWD’s this year.
Geelong has conceded the 2nd-most HITOUTS this year.

North has conceded the most points to FWD’s over the last 5 rounds.

HISTORY

Dangerfield – 114, 96, 103
Duncan – 104, 142, 105
Hawkins – 105, 81, 112
Stewart – 80, 89, 99

Goldstein – 95, 79, 82
Higgins – 90, 105, 123

 

ADELAIDE vs MELBOURNE

Adelaide Oval, 8.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$25,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 50 max)
WEATHER: 8 degrees and partly cloudy, no chance of rain.
BOOKIES: Melbourne $1.39 favourites, 123.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The Crows are in an AFL graveyard at this point, so we’re going to have to get used to wild swings in the CBA’s as they look to develop young players and unearth a new mix. Crouch, Keays and Jones were the victims this week, with Stengle the big beneficiary with 16 CBA’s to his name. Gibbs started in the guts but was predictably ineffectual, and was swapped back into defence for Laird. O’Brien posted a season-low 63% of CBA’s, with Strachan encroaching on his solo ruck role on debut. Seedsman’s team-high 89 AF was won exclusively off a wing as Brodie Smith played more of an inside role for the 2nd consecutive week. McAdams upswung in his deep forward role, Atkins was quiet on a wing on return and Knight was invisible in the first half in a return of his own. With the way Adelaide are going at the moment, it’s hard to see anyone having DFS success without a heap of midfield time or highly-curated roles.

Sparrow was the cat among the pigeons for Melbourne this week, shaking up their stable CBA’s with 55% involvement. Harmes’ move back to a HBF largely facilitated this, with a small drop for Viney. Jones was deployed mostly on a wing with Harmes’ move back, while Fritsch could only get near it in long leads up the ground but played a forward role. Luke Jackson played as a key forward on a day where it didn’t go forward too much, and scored accordingly. Consistent roles otherwise.

TEAMSHEETS

Adelaide: Fogarty, Mackay, McAsey, Schoenberg, Sholl, McHenry, Walker, Doedee IN – McPherson, Gibbs, Strachan, Hartigan, Knight, Atkins, McAdam, Stengle OUT

  • We’ll be here for years if I try to type this all out, so check the image below for expected roles.
  • Schoenberg is an inside midfielder who averaged 97 across his U/18 games last year, so I definitely expect him to feature at the CBA’s here (and will definitely in a lot of my DFS teams at basement price).
  • Sholl is a half-back from a famous AFL bloodline. He averaged 72 in the SANFL as a rebounder last year and also comes to us at basement price on DS. Very much worth a nibble.
  • Keays didn’t tag last week and there’s a strong chance he won’t moving forward, with Crows having very little to gain. Might as well see what he can do offensively, right?

Notable outs: B Crouch, Sloane, Milera, Frampton. 

Melbourne: Bennell, vandenBerg, Neal-Bullen, Tomlinson IN – T McDonald, O McDonald, Pickett, Hannan OUT

  • Melbourne were too top-heavy in attack last week, so Bennell replaces T McDonald up forward.
  • Neal-Bullen replaces Hannan in attack.
  • vandenBerg replaces Pickett in attack. He’ll cover any leftover wing time with Harmes a permanent backman.
  • Tomlinson effectively replaces Oscar McDonald, with Jones moving from a wing to a HBF.
  • No big moves in the midfield, which means Sparrow will see his fair share of CBA’s again this week.

Notable outs: McDonald brothers. 

TRENDS

Adelaide has conceded the most fantasy points overall this year.
Adelaide has conceded the 2nd-most 80’s at 4.9 per game this year.
Adelaide has conceded the most points to DEF’s this year.
Adelaide has conceded the most points to MID’s this year.
Adelaide has conceded the most points to FWD’s this year.

Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-most fantasy points overall this year.
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-most points to DEF’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the 2nd-most points to MID’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the least points to RUC’s this year.
Melbourne has conceded the least HITOUTS this year.

HISTORY

M Crouch – DNP, 123, 103
Laird – 110, 72, 125
Atkins – 107, 96
Gibbs70, 113, 92 (started in defence then moved to tag Oliver in 2nd half)
O’Brien – 57

Gawn – 126, 99
Oliver – 108, 89, 119
Viney – 104, DNP, 94
Jones98, 94 (half-back role)
Harmes 93, 85, 80 (midfield role)
Brayshaw – 91, 95, 166 (from when he was good)
Petracca83, 81 (forward role)

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