THURSDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$50,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 100 max)
$6,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 17 max)

 

COLLINGWOOD vs SYDNEY

Gabba, 5.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 30 max)
WEATHER: 17 degrees and clear, humid.
BOOKIES: Collingwood $1.37 favourites, 118.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Life without Pendles was relatively consistent for the Pies, with Sier for Wills the only major change. The Bear was on the same program as the man he replaced, limited TOG and half his minutes spent across half forward, which hurt his ceiling greatly. Crisp continues to feature at the CBA’s (as he did to finish 2019), logging a season-high 35% against the Dockers – his floor is much improved if this holds. Elliott continues to be the big surprise, playing the entire game as an inside MID with a CBA Rate of 1.05. Collingwood likes his creativity in the clearances but, like his predecessor in De Goey before him, he often wanders down forward once the ball has cleared. Sidebottom continued the trend of players coming back fresh and dominating, starting on a wing for his 101 AF but followed the ball around like a genuine midfielder. Phillips and Daicos joined him in the wing rotation. Keane played in defence but didn’t have a touch to half time – you can forget about him as a fantasy guy. Mayne had a horrendous downswing with a team-low 20 AF, and doesn’t look to have a clear role with Collingwood’s defence packed and Sidebottom ruining his wing gig.

The core of Parker, Florent, Rowbottom and Mills looks concrete for the injury-riddled Swans, although Sam Gray snuck into the rotation with 7 CBA’s. He didn’t do much with it this week, but his exploits as a midfielder for Port means he’ll be on my radar moving forward. Lloyd had another 25 touches this week – he’s enjoying Mills playing up the ground. Hayward spent time at both ends but mainly in defence, with Cunningham and Dawson permanent defenders. Clarke was quiet on a wing, as was the second-gamer Ling in the back-line. Bell’s improvement was noticeable with 61 AF off a forward-flank. 

TEAMSHEETS

Collingwood: Reid, C Brown, Roughead, Ruscoe IN – Mayne, Cameron, Keane, Varcoe OUT

  • Reid replaces Cameron, L4L. Playable at $6,860 but far from a lock.
  • Roughead replaces Keane, L4L.
  • Cal Brown replaces Mayne in a wing/HFF rotation. Could sneak some CBA’s but could be limited TOG coming off the ankle issue.
  • According to Collingwood, Ruscoe is “a tall defender who is a real competitive beast…. (who) has developed into a forward since joining the club”. If we assume that’s true and his likely position for Thursday evening, then it suggests a slight reshuffle with Varcoe out from that defence. It’s likely just as simple as Crisp going back to defence full-time and more inside time opening up for Sier/Brown.

Notable outs: Pendlebury, De Goey, Howe, Wills, Cameron, Cox, Mayne. 

Sydney: Stephens, Thurlow, Melican, Wicks IN – Gray, L Taylor, Blakey, Clarke OUT

  • Stephens replaces Clarke on a wing, L4L.
  • Wicks is a small forward who averaged 101 from 20 games in the NEAFL last year, which you take with a grain of salt because a) some of it was as a midfielder and b) it’s the NEAFL. He’ll replace Lewis Taylor as a pressure small forward.
  • Melican/Thurlow are both defenders and Gray/Blakey are not, so a reshuffle looming. Hayward almost definitely returns to the forward line, while Jordan Dawson up to a wing would solve kill two structural birds with one stone.

Notable outs: Franklin, Heeney, Hewett, Kennedy, Naismith. 

TRENDS

Collingwood had conceded the 3rd-most points to DEF’s this year.
Collingwood had conceded the 2nd-least points to RUC’s this year.

Sydney had conceded the 4th-most fantasy points overall over the last 5 rounds.
Sydney had conceded the 4th-most 80’s with 4.0 per game over the last 5 rounds.
Sydney had conceded the 4th-most points to DEF’s over the last 5 rounds.
Sydney had conceded the least points to FWD’s this year.

HISTORY

Grundy – 149, 150, 133
Treloar – 114, DNP, 134
Adams – DNP, 134, 137 (tagged by Hewett)
Crisp – 90, 105, 101
Sidebottom48, 70, 126 (tagged by Clarke)
Maynard – 72, 73, 78
Sier – DNP, 89

Parker – 107, 92, 84
Lloyd – 105, 91, 108
Rampe – 91, 117
Sinclair – 89, 91

 

GOLD COAST vs ST KILDA

Metricon, 8.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$25,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 50 max)
WEATHER: 15 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: St Kilda $1.50 favourites, 122.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Really consistent mix from the Suns again here. Miller conceded a few appearances to Noah Anderson while Witts had a more reasonable allotment of minutes, but that was about it. Greenwood went without a single tackle but incredibly still leads the league in tackles per game (with daylight second), so I’m happy to just write this one off as an outlier. Gold Coast didn’t have any role changes to speak of, with Hanley still up on a wing and Ainsworth, despite a team-high 78 AF, was still anchored to the forward line.

Seb Ross’ late withdrawal shaped the CBA’s here, with Jack Sinclair surprisingly the player – and not Hunter Clark – to receive the boost in midfield time. Billings snuck in for 6 CBA’s too but that’s not a long-term manoeuvre. A hand injury to Ryder meant a ruck bump for Marshall, which is a good omen for possible solo ruck time in the near future. Hunter Clark didn’t need the midfield time to thrive this week, producing a team-high 91 AF off a back flank. Hind (81) and Butler (79) capitalised on a vulnerable Swans list with upswings from HFF’s. Savage was the late inclusion and predictably played in defence, which moved Geary to a defensive forward role. Hill (wing) and Battle (swingman but mostly forward) were the other roles of note.

TEAMSHEETS

Gold Coast: Sharp, Lemmens IN – MacPherson, Hanley OUT

  • Lemmens likely replaces MacPherson in the forward line, as he did in the first 2 rounds of this season.
  • Sharp replaces Hanley on a wing potentially? High-energy forward perhaps? He’s a bit of a wildcard but he can find the footy, scoring 43 and 60 in half-games in the Marsh Series early this year.
  • If Sharp or Lemmens don’t replace Hanley’s wing time, someone like Ainsworth would love the opportunity to get up the ground, although Holman is probably ahead of him for a promotion.

Notable outs: Rowell. 

St Kilda: Long, Kent IN – Parker, Savage OUT

  • Long replaces Savage, L4L.
  • Kent replaces Parker, L4L.
  • No structure change means Geary probably plays a defensive forward role again, with Sinclair having the red carpet to midfield time rolled out for him again.
  • Plan B would be Hunter Clark into the guts, Sinclair a permanent forward and Geary back to defence.
  • Does Marshall play a bit more ruck time here with Ryder (hand) a bit sore?

Notable outs: Hannebery, Dunstan, Ross. 

TRENDS

Gold Coast have conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s this year.

St Kilda have conceded the 4th-least fantasy points overall this year.
St Kilda have conceded the 3rd-least 80’s at 2.7 per game this year.
St Kilda have conceded the 3rd-least points to MID’s this year.
St Kilda have conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

Swallow – 115, 73, 102
Witts – 84, 95, 81

Billings – 170, 84, 104
Marshall – 106
Steele – DNP, 111, 94 (no tagging)
Gresham – 98, 65, 96

 

Leave a Comment

Scroll to Top