SUNDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$100,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 165 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings


 

NORTH MELBOURNE vs PORT ADELAIDE

Marvel, 1.10pm ADST

SINGLE SLATES:
$15,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 25 max)
WEATHER: Under the roof.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.17 favourites, 175.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

No Cunnington, Anderson, Dumont, Hall or Polec made for a very interesting North midfield division, but one we unfortunately can’t take anything out of. Simpkin and Davies-Uniacke will still be around when the whips are cracking, but is Tyson even best 22 despite his 106 AF and 3-goal performance? Will Phillips certainly isn’t, while Hayden and Thomas are destined for different roles at either end. Stephenson was extremely impressive with his midfield presence, but that’ll be on the wing exclusively during the real deal you’d think. Still, 98 AF without a goal is an excellent sign for his basement this year. Ziebell struggled to pick up the tempo early in his debut as an intercept defender, but improved as the game devolved into a NEAFL-standard snoozefest. The 9 kick-ins were huge for his scoring with the extra 21 points, which probably hurt McDonald after the B&F winner had the backline all to himself last year. Powell played mostly on a wing and accumulated 64 AF in his 67% TOG before being subbed out – a huge tick for the draftee. Lazarro was quiet up forward, as was Bosenvulagi in defence. Lachie Young didn’t have a huge influence across half back, and the same goes for Bailey Scott as a half forward. 

Veterans Boak and Rockliff pulled half-day shifts, which opened the door for Drew (93 AF, 0.53 CBA Rate) and Mead (0.56 CBA Rate) to soak up some midfield minutes. Amon attended the most CBA’s of Port’s midfielders, finally granted a provisional hybrid midfield license after spending 2020 as a pure wingman. A fully fit Wines was a sight to behold as he flaunted his fantasy game with 114 AF from modest minutes. Port Adelaide took the piss a little bit with their ball movement, racking up an AFL record 190 marks. Houston (154 AF, 16 marks), Aliir (99 AF, 14 marks), Byrne-Jones (96 AF, 8 marks), Burton (87 AF, 9 marks) and Bergman (86 AF, 8 marks) cashed in the most of the defensive group, while Bonner’s new wing role paid dividends with 15 marks and 120 AF. Butters looked incredible in a high half-forward role but it would’ve been hard not to with the fight that Adelaide put up.  Lachie Jones had an immediate influence when activated, scoring 43 AF in his 42% TOG and had incredible presence for an 18 year old. 

TEAMSHEETS

Notable outs: Dumont, Cunnington, Anderson, Tarrant. 

  • The midfield outs are huge for the fringe North MID’s here. Davies-Uniacke should see a full game in the guts while Dom Tyson gets a chance to cement his spot.
  • Rookie Tom Powell finally has a chance to play on the inside after spending the AAMI hitout on a wing with Hayden curiously not named (and not on the injury list) even though he was added to the leadership group this pre-season.
  • North have loaded up on genuine forwards here so Stephenson is looking very likely on a wing.
  • Ziebell will continue with his intercept role, which makes McDonald much less appealing before you even consider the rough matchup. Young has the best chance of the remaining defenders in playing a fantasy-friendly game but didn’t pass the eye test in the AAMI clash.
  • Scott should rotate through a wing/half forward which has been a potent role in the AFL amidst the new rule changes so far. Maybe not against Port, though.

Notable outs: Rozee, Powell-Pepper, Rockliff, Hartlett. 

  • Bergman edges his foot in the half-back door after a huge pre-season and a short-term injury to Hartlett. Definitely has the ability to rack up as we saw last week in the AAMI capitulation of the Crows.
  • His inclusion confirms a wing role for Bonner. Very underpriced on his potential here. Duursma will line up on the other wing with Amon covering the overlap in a hybrid midfield gig.
  • Rockliff’s absence and Rozee’s injury opens up a bit of extra midfield time for Gray (forward pocket) and Butters (high half forward), rather than the pair having to just rely on inside 50’s to score.
  • Fantasia should see plenty of supply in a dedicated small forward role. Was super busy in the AAMI before being subbed out early.
  • Drew could not have been more impressive during the pre-season and is the sole reason Rockliff can’t get a gig. Will be chalk for a reason with a guaranteed inside midfield role for a heavily-favoured side.
  • Aliir was eye-catching as an interceptor during the AAMI and faces a North side short on key forwards. Will lap everything up.

TRENDS

North conceded the 4th-most points to Gen FWD’s last year.
North conceded the 5th-most points to MID’s last year.

Port conceded the 4th-least points to Key DEF’s last year.
Port conceded the 2nd-least points to Gen DEF’s last year.
Port conceded the 2nd-least points to Gen FWD’s last year.
Port conceded the 5th-least points to MID’s last year.
Port conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s last year.

HISTORY

Rockliff – 153, 48, 107
Boak – 131, 104, 127
Wines – 125, 74, 98
Amon – 118
Houston – 101, 97
Byrne-Jones – 83, 8, 57

Anderson – 105, INJ, 91
Davies-Uniacke – 91
Simpkin – 39, 119
Goldstein – 74, 127, 96


 

GWS vs ST KILDA

GIANTS Stadium, 3.20pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$20,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 35 max)
WEATHER: 23 degrees and showers, following rain all week.
BOOKIES: GWS $1.64 favourites, 156.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The Giants have high profile injuries to Whitfield and Preuss, but everyone else in their midfield group took part in the AAMI clash with the Swans. Hopper and Coniglio were the full-time inside midfielders, with Taranto top scoring with 121 AF from a forward rotation. Tom Green shouldn’t run into any job security issues this year and was busy in his 48% CBA share. Ward and de Boer found themselves outside of the CBA’s as they finished last season, with Ward a spare parts player with time across half-back and even chopping out as the 2nd ruckman at times. Toby Greene didn’t get his customary cameos and likely won’t in Round 1 as he’ll be needed as a scoring option in the absence of Hogan and Riccardi on top of Jeremy Cameron’s exit. Perryman and Kelly were the main wingmen without Whitfield. Bruhn was busy across half-forward with 4 sausage rolls, looking like he could be a goalkicker in the Toby Greene mould early on in his career. Idun, Ash and Cumming all formed part of GWS’s new defensive unit, with the latter taking the majority of the kick-outs but failing to get involved in general play.

Adelaide off-cut Hunter held down the ruck frontier in the absences of Marshall and Ryder and couldn’t have done much more in his first crack at a club he’d been part of for 3 weeks. Soft tissue injuries kept Jones and Hannebery out of proceedings, which likely stifles the CBA inclusion of Sinclair and removes Bytel from the side completely when they return. Ross and Hunter Clark ran a rare MID/DEF rotation that I’d like more data on to analyse accurately. Recruits in Brad Crouch (full-time inside MID) and Higgins (high half forward) wore St Kilda colours for the first time, as did former Essendon utility McKernan as ruck insurance. Sinclair was monstrous in his new defensive role as a splitter/distributor, as was Bradley Hill (97 AF) as a big beneficiary of the rule changes this year. Webster was impressive as a 3rd-tier distributor out of defence, as was the draftee Highmore after being subbed on as Frawley’s injury replacement. Battle played as a 3rd-tall forward and will be needed there for the foreseeable future with St Kilda’s KPP woes. 

TEAMSHEETS

Notable outs: Whitfield, Preuss, Hogan, Riccardi, Finlayson. 

  • So much for not being able to fit in their 4 key talls – injuries to Hogan and Riccardi (plus the unexplained absence of Finlayson) has the Giants scrambling for bodies. Buckley holds down one post, with Keeffe likely to sneak forward (and help chop out in the ruck) with all of Davis, Taylor, Haynes and Idun able to cover St Kilda’s talls in defence.
  • Toby Greene needed forward as one of GWS’s few genuine scoring threats. Bruhn to join him on debut.
  • Flynn with a huge workload as the solo ruck on debut. Annoyingly been priced up though.
  • Kelly will need to join Perryman on a wing to cover the injured Whitfield, with Ward helping to cover that rotation during the AAMI.
  • No one tags in the AAMI so de Boer’s forward role could easily turn into a forward tag, or even back to the genuine shadowing he was doing after the clearances last year. Gresham has been a target in the past but boy did Brad Hill look good a fortnight ago…
  • Tom Green rounds out the inside core and will rotate through half forward as per usual. Taranto likely in the same rotation. The wet weather will suit both.
  • Cumming already the primary kick-out guy, but can he get involved in general play this time?

Notable outs: Crouch, Hannebery, Jones, Marshall, Ryder, King, Frawley, Geary, Paton. 

  • Like with the Roos, a few key midfielders out opens the door for the fringe guys to smash value. Bytel has elite endurance and can play both inside and outside and is too cheap not to have a nibble at. Hunter Clark steps up from defence and his planned 70/30 DEF/MID rotation now looks like a MID/DEF rotation instead for Round 1.
  • Same goes for Ross who was preparing for a MID/DEF role this pre-season; he’ll be needed between the arcs due to the injuries.
  • Sinclair rotated through the CBA’s with those guys in the AAMI but the defensive line-breaking/distributor hats he wore in the pre-season means that he’ll score no matter which position he lines up in.
  • Higgins could even sneak into the CBA’s from his high half forward role, but as with Sinclair, both roles look potent anyway.
  • Battle and Wood the forward targets with all of St Kilda’s KPP woes. McKernan to chop out the debutant Paul Hunter in the ruck.
  • Highmore to debut but will find it hard to get his SANFL-stamped intercept game going with the forecast rain.

TRENDS

GWS conceded the 2nd-least points to Key FWD’s last year.
GWS conceded the least points to MID’s last year.

St Kilda conceded the 4th-least points to Gen DEF’s last year.
St Kilda conceded the 3rd-least points to MID’s last year.

HISTORY

Coniglio – 104, 82, 98, 112
Hopper – 88, 97, 93, 84
Taranto – 85, 105, 102, 95

Steele – 108, 71, 75, 89
Ross – 74, 86, 105, 118


WEST COAST vs GOLD COAST

Optus, 6.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$30,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 50 max)
WEATHER: 33 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.21 favourites, 170.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

The absences of Yeo and Kelly gave us a decent idea of how the Eagles will cope with being 2 elite midfielders (Yeo and Shuey) down in Round 1. Sheed looks to have been promoted to his preferred inside midfield role and it immediately paid off with 96 AF from a huge 81% CBA share. Gaff, Duggan, Redden and O’Neill rotated through the wings and the last couple of inside slots. Oscar Allen kicked off life as a utility rather than a back-up ruck, spending time at either end while Vardy chopped out a managed Naitanui in the ruck. Witherden did Witherden things with 83 AF from 9 marks, crucially avoiding clangers or turnovers by foot and will need to keep doing that with starting sub Rotham gunning for his assumed spot in the back 7. Ryan was impressive with a noticeably improved tank that allowed him to roam out of the arc more often, while Jamaine Jones was busy in a high half forward gig. 

Witts is the only fit ruckman on Gold Coast’s list and gave us a taste of what to expect from him this year with 88 AF from managed minutes. Burgess and Day took the overflow. It was all about young talent from the Suns, who reinstated Rowell into the guts and partnered him with Anderson (wing/half forward last year) and Brodie (Reserves). Old hats Miller, Swallow and Weller were happy to concede those inside minutes in a pre-season game, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll be so forthcoming in Round 1. Swallow, at a minimum, will need to spend more time forward, but MacPherson (105 AF) showed that half forward isn’t such a bad place to be anymore after the rule changes. Will Powell was busy off half-back as Lukosius was trialed on a wing with moderate results. Markov started slow but showed how fruitful the distributor role can be with 9 marks in his 85 AF by the time the final siren wailed. 

TEAMSHEETS

Notable outs: Yeo, Shuey, Hutchings, Williams. 

  • Rotham edged out Witherden in the end and, as we know, there’s no such thing as a bad pick in the Eagles backline (on a dry day) with the way they control the footy with their kicking. Look at everyone back there in West Coast stacks.
  • Eagles once again name a very insulated side with no MID/FWD rotation. Add in the injuries to Yeo and Shuey, and Xavier O’Niell is locked into midfield time as part of a 6-man rotation. Eat that chalk big time.
  • Should go without saying after the pre-season but Duggan in the midfield with a hybrid role. Sheed looking at a heavy inside slant.
  • NicNat will be on reduced minutes as we’ve now come to expect, Vardy to chop out and will probably have limited minutes himself with the Eagles already running 3 tall forwards.
  • Everyone else as expected, with Allen to float between key forward and key back roles.

Notable outs: Nil. 

  • What a juxtaposition Gold Coast’s midfield is to West Coast’s, with the Suns running with an 9-man midfield rotation. Certainly not a bad thing on a stinking hot afternoon in Perth.
  • Swallow and Brodie probably the two lowest on the totem pole in terms of a forward rotation, but Weller and Anderson will be involved heavily too.
  • Lukosius and Ellis the main wingmen with Anderson/Miller/Weller covering the overlap. Probably doesn’t mean much in 2021 footy though with the wings being used plenty so far.
  • Powell had a huge pre-season and probably rose up the defensive rankings to the point where he’s more attacking than defending.
  • Markov the main distributor and hopefully grows as an interceptor too. Second half was huge in the AAMI.
  • Witts a solo ruck, both in this game and on Gold Coast’s list in general. Will have a massive workload.

TRENDS

West Coast conceded the least points to Gen FWD’s last year.
West Coast conceded the 6th-most points to MID’s last year.
West Coast conceded the least points to Elite RUC’s last year.

Gold Coast conceded the most points to Key FWD’s last year.
Gold Coast conceded the 3rd-most points to Gen FWD’s last year.
Gold Coast conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s last year.
Gold Coast conceded the 2nd-least points to RUC’s last year.

HISTORY

Gaff – 123, 144, 122
Kelly 121* (tagged by Miller after fast start)
Sheed – 78, 116, 81
Redden – 78, 120
Darling – 60, 90, 103

Rowell – 135
Anderson – 91
Witts – 81, 98*, 61 (no NicNat)

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