In a new series exclusively for Draftstuds, I’ll be looking at one of the big winners over the weekend and analysing not only their winning lineup, but also their strategies as a whole, including exposures and any stacking preferences.
This will be mainly focused on the mass-multi entry players, but any exceptional performances I’ll cover too. The aim of this article isn’t to single out anyone in particular, so if you get targeted don’t be offended – I’ll certainly be including the DraftStuds boys as well (if we ever get around to having a big day). The aim of this article is to give newcomers critical insights behind mass multi-entry play.
First up we have DraftKings user ‘NutsInMyPoo’, who is more commonly known as top Draftstars AFL DFS player ILoveLamp. Lamp took out the Friday night AFL Showdown $60K Blinder on DraftKings, netting himself the 20k USD first prize!
Here is the winning lineup:
The first thing to note when analysing a profitable multi-entry player; it’s important not to get carried away with the winning lineup – you have to look at the entire strategy employed.
When Lamp entered his 150 lineups, the thought behind his entries is to maximise the chance of any single one of those 150 to win. It’s important not to get carried away with the results but rather to focus on the process that led to him taking out first place.
Let’s delve into his player exposures for the Friday night comp:
At first glance, Lamp has clearly gone with a very balanced approach. Of the top 8 owned players, he only took a stand on 2 of them, going slightly over the field on Whitfield and Ash.
Both plays failed, with Whitfield unfortunately going down early with injury, and Ash failing to make an impact on debut.
So how did he end up with a team in first place?
Harry Perryman, Callan Ward and Jack Macrae were the big performers of the slate – Lamp had exposures greater than the field for all three of them.
Ward was always going to be slightly under owned after letting people down as chalk the week prior, and concerns about Perryman’s role led to only 16.60% of the field taking their chances on him.
Just quickly, while we’re on Harry Perryman, I thought I’d mention something I’ve noticed in his role…
He currently reminds me a bit of a Brad Ebert – with the combination of being good over his head, having the ability to kick goals, and also the contested trait of tackling hard and winning his own ball.
In hindsight it made him the perfect single game GPP play.
Anyone with a high ceiling that flies under the radar and doesn’t necessarily pop up in projections should be considered for tournaments.
Anyway, let’s get back into the analysis…
Two-thirds of Ilovelamp’s teams contained Ed Richards – who scored a solid 45, which was decent for his salary. Besides these players, Lamp didn’t take many other extreme stands on the field.
Being well over the field on Johannisen and well under the field on Haynes balanced out, with both players ending up in his winning lineup. A lineup that consisted of an excellent mix of both Bulldogs and GWS players.
In this case, I’d consider his winning strategy to be simply getting the best picks right and then spreading exposure everywhere else. This strategy will result in very consistent results from GPP to GPP, as teams should be evenly spread out across the leaderboard.
You can see by the placing of his teams that his intended result came to fruition.
I know this a horribly formatted graph (my apologies, will improve in the future) but the intention is to show how Lamps teams are almost perfectly spread out between first place and last place (5,064).
What this says to me is, Lamp has implemented a strategy that optimises his chances for one of his entries to win the competition, regardless of the outcome of the match. He has “covered all bases”, as some like to say.
This is perfect mass multi-entering strategy.
The aim of the GPP’s should always be to try and take advantage of variance and land a team at the top of each tournament, because of the top-heavy prize payouts.
That is exactly what NutsInMyPoo has done here.
Well deserved $20,000 U.S. dollars!