RICHMOND vs GEELONG 

Gabba, 6.30pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$150,000 AUD on Draftstars ($20 entry, 225 max)
$10,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 29 max)
WEATHER: 23 degrees and thunderstorms.
BOOKIES: Richmond $1.84 favourites, 117.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

It was the same midfield mix for the Tigers in a sloppy affair against Port, albeit with a few key swings in the KPI’s. The big one was the reduction of Edwards’ CBA presence, dropping from 76% to 50% as the Tigers prioritised skipper Cotchin at the centre bounces with a huge CBA Rate of 1.19 – a figure that you only get when teams specifically try and execute it (think NicNat, etc). Dusty played more of a hybrid role this time around, exposing Byrne-Jones in 1-on-1’s when isolated forward as the Tigers kept going back to the well on exploiting that match-up. Astbury’s scoring suffered as he was forced to perform more as a back-up ruck than a defender, playing just 60% TOG and taking a career-high 31% of the centre bounces – interestingly, Nankervis only took 60% of the overall hitouts despite being the “solo” ruck. This is a stark reminder that Nank (106 AF) doesn’t scale off hitouts (just 19), but more so off his ground-level work, laying a massive 10 tackles in this one. Richmond ran back last week’s wing rotation with McIntosh, Graham and Pickett sharing those minutes, which left Lambert to do all his work from a nominal HFF. At this point, it would take an injury at a minimum to see Shai Bolton play midfield time this Saturday evening, backing-up last week’s 5% presence with a similarly low 13% in the Preliminary Final as Richmond have committed to a midfield mix that doesn’t include him. Balta was moved forward in the second half but was more of a coaching ploy than a lasting role change – he didn’t take a ruck contest all game, even after the switch. 

Comparatively, Geelong was much more settled in their rotations. That was headlined by another huge 75% CBA presence for Duncan (85 AF), as well as a season-low 15% for Dangerfield as he stretched Brisbane’s defence (despite not kicking a goal) – but I don’t think anyone expects those numbers to hold in a Grand Final, especially if Geelong finds themselves a couple of goals down. Stanley, Selwood and Guthrie all had their midfield minutes maxed out with Danger largely forward, while Parfitt hovered around 40% presence in his team-low 66% TOG. Stanley might have dominated the centre bounce work, but overall hitouts were much more even between himself, Blicavs and Hawkins, ultimately simmering down to a 47/32/21 ruck split overall – the Cats like Stanley’s ability to push forward and create mismatches. Blicavs and Menegola dominated the wing minutes, with Simpson taking the overflow when not lining up on his HFF. All other roles were as expected for the Cats, outside of a random 5-minute foray forward for Henry

TEAMSHEETS

Richmond: Unchanged

  • The Tigers have shown their hand structure-wise over the past fortnight, so I’m only really looking at the midfield splits of Dusty and Edwards as DFS-relevant. I don’t think Geelong has the same match-up issue with Dusty when he roams forward as Port had (and his CBA Rate of 0.97 last time they clashed supports that). I expect him to have a bigger midfield presence than last week as a result. Has never played a bad final so has to be highly owned.
  • Edwards is the harder to gauge. Cotchin’s CBA presence was through the roof last week, artificially, and almost certainly comes down this week with Edwards a chance to get some more in his favour. He’s a famously clean wet-weather player, and with anything from showers to thunderstorms forecast tonight, he’ll get his chance to show off his skills. Hopefully a few are scared off based on last week’s 40 in similar conditions – I see that as the exception rather than the rule.

Notable outs: Soldo.

Geelong: Unchanged

  • Danger’s F/M is the headlining act here, and I think we can all agree his CBA presence will be significantly greater than last week’s 15% in a belting. I expect something closer to a 50-50 split is planned, with the margin shaping that as the game wears on.
  • The question is – who sacrifices the center bounces when Danger comes strolling in? Duncan’s season-highs in CBA% over the past fortnight are the obvious concern, but Parfitt would have to be nervous as the last in, first out in Geelong’s midfield.
  • There’s a lot of moving pieces here – if Danger plays more midfield, Duncan plays more wing, and Simpson becomes more of a HFF than a wingman. Try and structure up your crunches to capture both extremes of that see-saw.

Notable outs: Steven, Ratugolea.

TRENDS

Richmond conceded the least points to KEY DEF’s over L5.
Richmond conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Richmond conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Richmond conceded the most points to RUC’s over L5 and this year.

Geelong conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY DEF’s over L5.
Geelong conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN DEF’s over L5.
Geelong conceded the least points to KEY FWD’s over L5.
Geelong conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN FWD’s over L5.
Geelong conceded the 2nd-least points to MID’s over L5.
Geelong conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s over L5.

HISTORY

2019 ROUND 12

  • Edwards HBF role.
  • McIntosh on a wing.
  • Baker up forward.
  • Danger M/F rotation, 7 marks and 9 tackles boosted his score.
  • Ablett M/F rotation.
  • Stanley sole ruck, Ratugolea as support.
  • Blicavs lockdown defender.

2019 PRELIM

  • Houli let off the chain with 11 marks.
  • Lynch dominated, 10 marks and 5 snags to his name. Taylor couldn’t go with him.
  • Dusty mainly midfield. 
  • Baker across half back.
  • Edwards HFF role this time.
  • Graham’s famous dislocated shoulder game, did well to get to 41 after Q1 issue injury.
  • Soldo/Nank brutal timeshare, played 55% and 60% TOG respectively.
  • Selwood enacted Finals mode, 30 touches and 11 marks. 
  • Dangerfield M/F rotation. 
  • Stanley sole ruck, Ratugolea as support.
  • Ablett M/F rotation.
  • Blicavs wing role.
  • Guthrie in the midfield on standard limited TOG, just wasn’t elite last year.

2020 ROUND 17 – SHORTENED QUARTERS

  • Nankervis sole ruck after Soldo went down early with his ACL.
  • Dusty M/F rotation.
  • Bolton a full-time midfielder.
  • Tom Lynch injury-affected score, Riewoldt bobbed up with 4 goals in his stead.
  • Balta match-up on Hawkins, who only kicked 1.2.
  • Blicavs sole ruck, Ratugolea as support.
  • Duncan wing role.
  • Dangerfield 50-50 M/F rotation. 

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