PORT ADELAIDE vs RICHMOND

Adelaide Oval, 7.50pm AEDT

MAIN SLATES:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 150 max)
$5,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 14 max)
WEATHER: 18 degrees and mostly cloudy, chance of showers.
BOOKIES: Port Adelaide $1.85 favourites, 114.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

It was the same core for Port, with the swings in CBA presence between Wines, Rockliff and Boak typical of their week-to-week variance. Powell-Pepper continues to be a part-timer when not in that pressure HFF role, but the midfield time of Gray has all but evaporated with just 12% – his lowest CBA presence since Round 3. Port did make a tactical change in the ruck this week with Lycett/Ladhams running a 74/26 ruck rotation, which means that Dixon failed to attend a ruck contest for the first time since the season restart. As you can imagine, there isn’t a lot to report here with Port being extremely settled all season, but Duursma’s concussion early in the 3rd quarter did have an influence with Houston moving up to a wing in the second half.

A loss in week 1 of the Finals sent Richmond back to the drawing board, and that resulted in some big tactical shifts. The obvious change was the removal of Bolton from the midfield core, playing as a full-time small forward – his 58 AF was built upon 3 goals rather than weight of possession. This allowed Dusty (+17%) and Prestia (+12%) to spend more time in the middle, but the real beneficiary was Edwards with his CBA Rate of 0.95 indicating a full-time midfield role. Nankervis (72% of ruck contests) regressed to a more typical allotment of minutes as Richmond had to get creative after dropping Chol – they opted to go in one defender heavy and rotated Astbury (13% contests) and Balta (3%) through the ruck. The forward switch of Bolton had a flow on effect to the wing rotation, with McIntosh back into a familiar wing gig alongside Pickett and GrahamLambert was more prevalent across half forward (as was his role to end the H&A season). Interestingly, Houli was back in favour with the extra defender in the side, racking up 32 touches with an uncharacteristic majority of that being up on a wing.  

TEAMSHEETS

Port Adelaide: Unchanged

  • Structurally, Port should remain very predictable. The midfield time of Gray looms as the biggest positional intrigue, and with it guaranteed no longer he profiles as more of a GPP pick.

Notable outs: Nil.

Richmond: Unchanged

  • No change means we’ll see the Astbury/Balta completing the ruck puzzle again, especially with the extra defender named.
  • Richmond’s midfield mix has been far from consistent all season, but Bolton’s removal from the midfield paid handsome dividends last week – it allowed Dusty/Edwards/Prestia to play more genuine midfield time, the wing rotation returned to it’s stable McIntosh/Graham/Pickett configuration and Bolton himself bobbed up with 3 goals for some much-needed scoreboard impact. Hard to predict a backflip on this one.

Notable outs: Soldo.

TRENDS

Port conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Port conceded the least points to GEN FWD’s over L5 and this year.
Port conceded the 4th-least points to MID’s this year.
Port conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s this year.

Richmond conceded the least points to KEY DEF’s over L5.
Richmond conceded the 3rd-most points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Richmond conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Richmond conceded the most points to RUC’s over L5 and this year.

HISTORY

2019 Round 4

  • Houston HBF role.
  • Lycett/Ryder ruck rotation.
  • Lynch 6 snags.
  • Nankervis solo ruck.
  • Bolton forward pocket. 

2019 Round 18

  • Lycett solo ruck.
  • Houston HBF role, concussed during last quarter. 
  • Lynch 3 snags and should’ve had more. Riewoldt 3 goals on top of that.
  • Bolton in the midfield, 22 touches.

2020 Round 11 – Shortened Quarters

  • Wines massive upswing with 11 tackles, 22 CP’s.
  • Lycett/Ladhams with a 44/39 ruck split (Dixon took overflow up forward)
  • Houston HBF role.
  • Gray mostly forward, 3 goals.
  • Cotchin rested.
  • Dusty full-time MID role. Richmond midfield were well beaten, 75 huge in context.
  • Bolton full-time MID. 

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Tom Rockliff – M – $17,060 DS

Richmond single-slaters are a unique beast in the DFS landscape as no one on the Tigers boasts a ceiling – they’ve produced just 4 scores above 100 all season – so we’re forced to go hunting for opposition ball-winners regardless of the game script. Port offers a few accumulators to choose from with Boak, Wines and even Amon on his day, but none have a ceiling comparable to Rockliff’s. In fact, his 6 scores over 100 this season dwarfs Richmond’s as an entire club.

The Fantasy Pig has built a strong record against the Tigers with 132, 90 and 82* in his last few, his form is red hot with a 110-point average over the last month and his bloated price-tag of $17,060 ensures that he’ll be underowned by the masses – make sure you’re on the right side of that ledger on Friday evening. 

BEST VALUE: Ryan Burton – D – $9,520 DS

Much like we talked about in the first week of Finals, Burton’s salary is organically discounted because of the 6-point score poisoning his rolling average, and $9.5k is simply too cheap. Richmond has a weakness for ball-wining and ball-using DEF’s, and the former Hawk is both. Expect a lot of return customers after a strong 66-point showing against the Cats. 

BEST RUCK: Toby Nankervis – R – $11,050 DS

Yes, this pick goes against the DvP trends, but honestly, it’s a line-ball call between Nank and Lycett for the RUC slot on this slate. At essentially the same price, I’d be splitting my teams not too far either side of 50-50 with this pair if you’re multi-entering. 

For Cash line-ups, I’ve sided with Nankervis because solo ruck trumps timeshare almost every time – you can see that in his average of 71 AF without Soldo this year, including a lowest score of 54.  

BEST STAT: Shane Edwards – M/D – $10,720 DS 

The big number here for Edwards is 76% – his CBA share against the Saints last week. The former All-Australian loves that midfield clock, averaging 65 AF this year when getting at least a 50% CBA share, compared to just 46 AF when he doesn’t. The flexibility to pick him in multiple lines opens up some unique possibilities – he’s a key player for mine on this slate.

BEST RETHINK: Shai Bolton – M/F – $11,750 DS

Linked to the man above is Bolton as the player opposite Edwards in the revolving door that is Richmond’s midfield. After averaging a whopping 81% CBA presence since Round 7, Shai was reduced to just the single attendance as the Tigers approach a fully-fit list (and the midfield squeeze that comes with it). Bolton needed 3 sausage rolls to hit even a modest 58 AF last week, so I won’t be going near him often at a lofty $11.8k salary.

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