SATURDAY SLATE

MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 150 max)
COMING SOON on Draftkings 

 

ST KILDA vs WESTERN BULLDOGS

Gabba, 4.40pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$20,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 40 max)
WEATHER: 23 degrees and sunny.
BOOKIES: Bulldogs $1.72 favourites, 122.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

Jones and Hannebery basically did a straight swap with the incoming midfielder playing limited minutes – this ensured that Hunter Clark remained a part of the CBA group and even stepped into a larger role with 58% presence. Sinclair is being slowly phased out (-29%) to more of a HFF/wing role and I think that’s in St Kilda’s best interest – Clark over Sinclair at stoppages is a big upgrade and St Kilda have a plethora of defenders to choose from. Ryder and Marshall continue to share to ruck but the split is tilting heavily in Ryder’s favour lately, so just be aware that Marshall’s floor takes a hit and he scales more like a genuine key forward these days. There weren’t many surprises from the Saints this week – Geary played in defence which left Battle up forward to play a defensive job on Haynes.

A lack of colour in the Bulldogs section of the above table is always a good thing when you have the Mastermind Bevo at the helm. The core has been set for the Bulldogs for a while now, with Dunkley being asked to do his best from a HFF – he’s a GPP-only guy at the moment but at least he hasn’t had to take any ruck contests the last couple of weeks. Hunter continued his rich vein of form with 119 purely on a wing – he’s a serious problem for opponents at the moment. Naughton’s head injury threw the Bulldogs into a spin, with Keath sent forward to cover him – Caleb Daniel did similar when Wallis succumbed to injury late. The Bulldogs had defenders coming out of their ears, so Duryea, R Smith and Richards all played predominantly across half forward, with Lipinski on a wing. English’s scoring has improved the last couple of weeks with increased ruck time, scoring back-to-back 88’s with 80% and 82% ruckshare the past fortnight. 

TEAMSHEETS

St Kilda: Jones IN – Battle OUT

  • Jones’ inclusion likely ends the midfield reign on Hunter Clark, which was always needs-based. Clark back to defense and Geary returning to a defensive forward role seems like the most likely outcome.
  • Geary tagged Johanissen the last time these teams met, but I could see a job on an excellent user in Daniel too.
  • With Jones back and Hunter Clark ahead of him, you can say goodbye to any midfield time for Sinclair.

Notable outs: Gresham, Battle. 

Bulldogs: No Changes.

  • Great news after a consistent line-up for a couple of weeks now – Bulldogs should be very predictable here. See above.
  • Dunkley (HFF) and Lipinski (wing rotation) are the key positions for mine, and don’t forget that Duryea is a forward at the moment so won’t scale with backmen as you might assume.

Notable outs: McLean. 

TRENDS

St Kilda conceded the 2nd-most points to KEY DEF’s over L5.
St Kilda conceded the 4th-least points to MID’s over L5.

Bulldogs conceded the most points to KEY FWD’s over last 5.
Bulldogs conceded the 4th-most points to GEN FWD’s this year.
Bulldogs conceded the 2nd-least points to MID’s over L5.
Bulldogs conceded the 2nd-most points to RUC’s this year.

HISTORY

Steele – 102*, 62, 101 (tagged Macrae and Bont in these games)
Billings – 112*, 110, 122
Ross – 107*, 79, 160
Jones – 108*
Clark – 89*, 105 (midfield role)
Marshall – 77*, 108 (solo ruck)

Dunkley – 108*, 123, 127
Macrae 65*, 132, 132 (when Bevo was up to his antics. Season-low 36% CBA presence with a wing/HFF role)
Hunter – DNP, 74, 102
English – 55*, 86
B Smith – 93*
Johannisen 50, 51, 126 (tagged by Geary)

 

WEST COAST vs COLLINGWOOD

Optus Stadium, 8.10pm AEST

SINGLE SLATES:
$30,000 on Draftstars ($15 entry, 60 max)
WEATHER: 14 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: West Coast $1.37 favourites, 109.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

West Coast sorely needed midfield reinforcements and Sheed came in riding on his white horse to soak up 93% of CBA’s. Interestingly, it was Duggan who lost the inside minutes rather than Gaff, who still featured at 93% of CBA’s himself. Bailey Williams’ inclusion cast Oscar Allen exclusively as a key forward, which turned out to be a crucial decision as he covered for Kennedy once the veteran went down with concussion. As mused last week, McGovern’s absence forced Barrass to go completely defensive and he managed just 12 AF as a result. Ainsworth and Duggan spearheaded the wing rotation, with Foley quiet in his minutes up the ground. Nelson’s 92 AF came with a more offensive mindset across half-back this week, with Duggan up the ground and Schofield holding down a key post freeing him up to accumulate. 

Collingwood spread the load across their midfield more evenly this week, but it was the same core of Adams, Treloar, Elliott and Pendlebury at the coalface. Of course, that meant that De Goey was still a permanent forward and it’s obvious to anyone watching that if he has a down game in attack, then Collingwood really struggles in finding another avenue to goal. The merry-go-round with Stephenson and Hoskin-Elliott continued, with the gangly pair rotating between full forward and a wing this time (with Daicos and Tyler Brown rounding out the wing rotation). Greenwood spent all his time across half forward again and struggled to score in that role, as did Varcoe as a pressure forward. 

TEAMSHEETS

West Coast: Shuey, Redden, McGovern, Cripps IN – Williams, Rotham, Foley, Schofield OUT

  • McGovern for Schofield in defense.
  • Cripps replaces Williams in attack.
  • Redden replaces Foley in the midfield rotation.
  • That leaves Shuey for Rotham, with Duggan sliding back into defence with the Eagles actually having a midfield for this one.
  • There won’t be any surprises with the Eagles – they love their structure and their game-plan and they’ll stick to it now that they have the soldiers back. Expect Gaff to play more on the outside this week, with Redden and Sheed both playing hybrid roles. Ainsworth will be bumped to more of a HFF than a wing this week.
  • McGovern might have replaced Schofield but they’re still a lockdown defender out with that transaction – expect Nelson to play a more defensive role than last week (and Duggan moving back into defence supports that).
  • Sheppard will get the De Goey job defensively, it shouldn’t affect his output – Eagles defenders scale from uncontested marks when they have the ball.

Notable outs: Yeo.

Collingwood: Mayne, Cameron IN – Varcoe, Brown OUT

  • Cameron replaces Varcoe in attack.
  • Mayne replaces Brown on a wing.
  • De Goey, Cox, Cameron, Mihocek, Stephenson and Hoskin-Elliott are too many marking types for the same forward line, so I strongly suggest one of Stephenson and WHE rounds out the Mayne/Daicos wing rotation. As to which one – your guess is as good as mine, and Collingwood even rotated them through that position last week.
  • Greenwood’s dirty HFF role set to continue.
  • I’m assuming that Elliott (full-time midfielder) and De Goey (full-time forward) continues, but it’s a Final and Collingwood likes to flex their versatility. The extra tall forward definitely allows De Goey to move into the guts if/when required, with Elliott as a small forward technically better “balance” up forward.

Notable outs: Howe, Sidebottom, Phillips. 

TRENDS

West Coast conceded the 3rd-least points to KEY FWD’s over L5.
West Coast conceded the least points to GEN FWD’s this year.
West Coast conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s over L4.

Note – RUC’s generally limp to something respectable against the Eagles because NicNat spends a fair chunk of time on the bench and they can actually get a few hitouts for 30% of the game. However, he does limit the ceilings of the big dogs, with Grundy (62) and Gawn (73) his notable scalps this year.

Collingwood conceded the most points to GEN DEF’s over L5 and this year.
Collingwood conceded the least points to KEY FWD’s over L5.
Collingwood conceded the 4th-most points to MID’s over L5.
Collingwood conceded the 4th-least points to RUC’s over L5 and this year.

HISTORY

Gaff – 126*, 104, 97
Kelly – 103*
Shuey – 73*, 78, 101
Naitanui 55, DNP, DNP (Spanked Grundy in the ruck then chilled out, 58% TOG)
Kennedy – 91*, 15, 55
Sheed 44*, 103, 93 (wing/HFF role mainly with everyone fit)
Hurn – 69*, 77, 89 (forward tag from Mayne)
Duggan68* (HBF role)
Sheppard – 61*, 83, 95 (Gets De Goey match-up when forward)

Crisp – 76*, 110
Adams – 70*, DNP, 82
Treloar – 68*, 121, 98
Sidebottom – DNP, 124, 107 (not playing but wing DvP potentially?)
Pendlebury – DNP, 104, 79 (Tagged by Hutchings)
Grundy62*, 129, 122 (NicNat opponent)
De Goey – DNP, 83, 107 (forward roles)

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