PORT ADELAIDE vs GEELONG

Adelaide Oval, 7.40pm AEST

MAIN SLATES:
$100,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 200 max)
$4,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 11 max)
WEATHER: 17 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Port $1.71 favourites, 115.5 over/under.

CBA’s & ROLES

You know you’re consistent when the most variable stat on the above table is “TOG”. Port have found their ideal midfield mix and are sticking with it, with Boak, Rockliff and Wines the mainstays, Powell-Pepper and Gray the part-timers and Rozee providing cameos. This was the easiest paragraph I’ve written this year as there were simply no surprises structurally from the Power last week; Amon and Duursma owned the wings and Lycett/Ladhams ran a familiar 64/34 ruck split. Houston (107) and Byrne-Jones (91) capitalised on the DEF’s vs Pies trend, but they won’t get the same downhill slope here against an accountable Geelong. 

Geelong cleared their injury list just in time for a trial run leading into the finals series, and the inclusions of Selwood (+74%) and Steven (+57%) predictably wreaked havoc on the CBA’s. The tightening of the midfield screws haven’t even finished either, as I guarantee you that Dangerfield doesn’t play as a permanent forward (CBA Rate of just 0.36 flattered him) when the whips are cracking. Atkins (rested), Fogarty (omitted), Dahlhaus (HFF) and Duncan (wing) have each already felt the pinch with their inside midfield minutes, and I suggest that Parfitt (HFF) won’t get anywhere near his CBA Rate of 0.84 here again when the Cats roll out their best formation against the Power. With Stanley still missing, Ratugolea (key forward) and Blicavs (wing) did their thing in a weird ruck rotation that was 61/39 at the centre bounces but 33/50 around the ground. Ablett returned in his customary forward role and Tuohy still finds himself playing up the ground, but overall there were no surprises with a strengthened line-up from the Cats.

TEAMSHEETS

Port Adelaide: Burton, Clurey, Butters IN – Woodcock, Lienert, Bonner OUT

  • Burton/Clurey for Bonner/Lienert, backline L4L.
  • Butters for Woodcock, small forward L4L.
  • You don’t fix what ain’t broke, and Port won’t try and tinker with a winning formula until someone proves it otherwise. The biggest question mark structurally is whos take Hawkins (after he destroyed them with 6 goals and 123 fantasy points last time), so it’s fair to say that there aren’t many DFS takeaways from Port’s Teamsheets at this stage.

Notable outs: Nil.

Geelong: Stanley, Atkins IN – Ratugolea, Steven OUT

  • Stanley replaces Ratugolea in the ruck rotation, but it doesn’t boot Blicavs out of the ruck picture like you might expect with a “solo” ruckman like Stanley entering the frame. In fact, they run a similar program, with Stanley/Blicavs/Hawkins looking at a 50/40/10 split based on their last few games with this structure in Rounds 10, 11, 12 and 14. Expect Blicavs to spend a lot of time on the wing, while Stanley will play plenty of minutes as a key forward.
  • Geelong surprisingly dumped Steven for Atkins in what was looming as a “too many cooks in the kitchen” scenario with Geelong’s midfield. Atkins will play a lot more across half forward than Steven would have, and the change also allows Dangerfield to move a lot more smoothly in the midfield rotation after playing as a permanent forward in Round 18.
  • Dangerfield usually commands north of 75% CBA presence when he plays as a midfielder, which is more than Steven (57%) had last week. Expect Parfitt to concede some ground with his midfield time to make up the difference.

Notable outs: Ratugolea, Steven.

TRENDS

Port conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Port conceded the least points to GEN FWD’s over L5.
Port conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s this year.

Geelong conceded the least points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Geelong conceded the 4th-least points to GEN DEF’s over L5.
Geelong conceded the least points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Geelong conceded the 3rd-least points to GEN FWD’s over L5.
Geelong conceded the 3rd-least points to MID’s over L5.

Note – Two very restrictive teams as the 1st and 3rd ranked clubs for least points conceded, but also rank 1st and 3rd for fantasy points generated. These figures aren’t surprising given it’s two of the better teams squaring off, but also means we don’t have any clear DvP trends to attack. 

HISTORY

*denotes 2020 games, shortened quarters.

Boak – 90*, 121, 101
Houston – 72*, 89, 89 (tagged Tim Kelly, HBF in the others)
Rockliff – 58*, DNP
Wines – 68*, 77, 89
Gray – 46*, 115, 126 (midfield roles)
Lycett 64*, 130 (against Stanley both times)

Hawkins123*, 26, DNP (6 goals as Geelong isolated him 1v1)
Guthrie – 98*, 80 (midfield roles)
Dangerfield – 95*, 110, 109 (midfield roles)
Duncan – 95*, 116, 90 (should have been more, low TOG with a late injury)
Stewart – 84*, 84
Menegola – 73*, DNP, 103
Selwood – 47*, 71, 112 

PLAYS

BEST PICK: Patrick Dangerfield – M/F – $14,330 DS

The fact that there are 5 players more expensive than Danger on this slate is ludicrous, but that’s what happens when the pricing formula is based on recent history – you get a few juicy gems slipping through the cracks.

Patty has been playing forward in the last few weeks with CBA presences of 40%, 43% and 30%, but do you really think – with his career winding down and time running out for that elusive Premiership – that he’s going to be okay with sitting up forward and letting his lesser teammates decide the crucial midfield battle? Danger averages 94 AF when attending more than 75% of CBA’s this year, so I would be prioritising him as a DPP when planning your exposures on Thursday evening. 

BEST VALUE: Tom Atkins – F – $7,230 DS

Finding value on this slate is like trying to locate the ‘cancel service’ button on Foxtel’s customer service webpage, so I’m going back to the ol’ reliable in Atkins. He’s attended between 21% and 30% of CBA’s in each of his last 5 games for the Cats, averaging 53 AF over that time – a score you’ll absolutely take at that price and with such scarcity in quality at the lower end of the salary scale.

Selwood ($11,310) looks too cheap but he’s a MID-only, while Rozee ($9,010) has significant appeal in GPP’s – especially after 61% of the field got burned by his 37 AF last week and might be hesitant in going back to a bad beat.

BEST RUCK: Rhys Stanley – R – $10,890 DS 

Ladhams’ ($10,520) last 3 games alongside Lycett has resulted in scores of 56, 41 and 28 as he’s been forced to build his score as a KPP – the problem here is that he’s not a natural forward and Geelong has one of (if not) the best defense in the league. The match-up is so dirty that this looms as one of the rare times I’d feel comfortable enacting a full ruck fade on the big Lad.

That leaves us with Stanley and Lycett ($10,970) in a clumped price bracket, and I’d be splitting my exposures to this pair. I like Stanley better in GPP’s – he’s coming off scores of 70 and 77 and has a higher ceiling with his potential to kick a couple of snags resting up forward. Of course, question marks surround his fitness level after missing the last few games with a groin issue…

That’s why I’ll have shares in the “safer” Lycett, with his ruck time reaching a low of 64% and as high as 75% over Port’s last 5 games, posting between 22 and 27 hitouts in each of these games. He’s consistent, but the obvious drawback is that he’s also consistently mediocre, logging an average of 63 AF over these games. 

BEST STAT: Tom Rockliff – M – $16,030 DS 

Everyone knows that Pigs don’t fly, and Fantasy Pigs are no different. Rockliff averages a monster 102 AF points from his 6 games at Adelaide Oval this year – 18 points better than his output when he’s forced to jump onto a plane before trotting around. He’ll be extremely highly owned after scores of 122, 122 and 105 leading into the Finals series, so there’s a big decision to be made on the prolific accumulator here. 

BEST RETHINK: Sam Menegola – M – $14,800 DS

Do you think the Cats will win?

Menegola has made a mockery of the term “downhill skier” with his output this year, averaging a whopping 36 extra points when Geelong win compared to when they lose. Even taking out his hip-affected Round 3 effort, the wingman only averaged 63 across Geelong’s other defeats, compared to a massive 93 in their victories. With this match at the Portress – where the Power has only lost once this season – I ask again, with Menegola’s DFS selection in mind:

Do you think the Cats will win?

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