PORT ADELAIDE vs GEELONG
Adelaide Oval, 7.40pm AEST
$100,000 AUD on Draftstars ($15 entry, 200 max)
$4,000 USD on Draftkings ($12 entry, 11 max)
WEATHER: 17 degrees and clear.
BOOKIES: Port $1.71 favourites, 115.5 over/under.
CBA’s & ROLES
You know you’re consistent when the most variable stat on the above table is “TOG”. Port have found their ideal midfield mix and are sticking with it, with Boak, Rockliff and Wines the mainstays, Powell-Pepper and Gray the part-timers and Rozee providing cameos. This was the easiest paragraph I’ve written this year as there were simply no surprises structurally from the Power last week; Amon and Duursma owned the wings and Lycett/Ladhams ran a familiar 64/34 ruck split. Houston (107) and Byrne-Jones (91) capitalised on the DEF’s vs Pies trend, but they won’t get the same downhill slope here against an accountable Geelong.
Geelong cleared their injury list just in time for a trial run leading into the finals series, and the inclusions of Selwood (+74%) and Steven (+57%) predictably wreaked havoc on the CBA’s. The tightening of the midfield screws haven’t even finished either, as I guarantee you that Dangerfield doesn’t play as a permanent forward (CBA Rate of just 0.36 flattered him) when the whips are cracking. Atkins (rested), Fogarty (omitted), Dahlhaus (HFF) and Duncan (wing) have each already felt the pinch with their inside midfield minutes, and I suggest that Parfitt (HFF) won’t get anywhere near his CBA Rate of 0.84 here again when the Cats roll out their best formation against the Power. With Stanley still missing, Ratugolea (key forward) and Blicavs (wing) did their thing in a weird ruck rotation that was 61/39 at the centre bounces but 33/50 around the ground. Ablett returned in his customary forward role and Tuohy still finds himself playing up the ground, but overall there were no surprises with a strengthened line-up from the Cats.
Port Adelaide: Burton, Clurey, Butters IN - Woodcock, Lienert, Bonner OUT
Burton/Clurey for Bonner/Lienert, backline L4L.
Butters for Woodcock, small forward L4L.
You don't fix what ain't broke, and Port won't try and tinker with a winning formula until someone proves it otherwise. The biggest question mark structurally is whos take Hawkins (after he destroyed them with 6 goals and 123 fantasy points last time), so it's fair to say that there aren't many DFS takeaways from Port's Teamsheets at this stage.
Notable outs: Nil.
Geelong: Stanley, Atkins IN - Ratugolea, Steven OUT
Stanley replaces Ratugolea in the ruck rotation, but it doesn't boot Blicavs out of the ruck picture like you might expect with a "solo" ruckman like Stanley entering the frame. In fact, they run a similar program, with Stanley/Blicavs/Hawkins looking at a 50/40/10 split based on their last few games with this structure in Rounds 10, 11, 12 and 14. Expect Blicavs to spend a lot of time on the wing, while Stanley will play plenty of minutes as a key forward.
Geelong surprisingly dumped Steven for Atkins in what was looming as a "too many cooks in the kitchen" scenario with Geelong's midfield. Atkins will play a lot more across half forward than Steven would have, and the change also allows Dangerfield to move a lot more smoothly in the midfield rotation after playing as a permanent forward in Round 18.
Dangerfield usually commands north of 75% CBA presence when he plays as a midfielder, which is more than Steven (57%) had last week. Expect Parfitt to concede some ground with his midfield time to make up the difference.
Notable outs: Ratugolea, Steven.
Port conceded the 2nd-least points to GEN DEF’s this year.
Port conceded the least points to GEN FWD’s over L5.
Port conceded the 3rd-least points to RUC’s this year.
Geelong conceded the least points to KEY DEF’s this year.
Geelong conceded the 4th-least points to GEN DEF’s over L5.
Geelong conceded the least points to KEY FWD’s this year.
Geelong conceded the 3rd-least points to GEN FWD’s over L5.
Geelong conceded the 3rd-least points to MID’s over L5.
Note - Two very restrictive teams as the 1st and 3rd ranked clubs for least points conceded, but also rank 1st and 3rd for fantasy points generated. These figures aren’t surprising given it’s two of the better teams squaring off, but also means we don’t have any clear DvP trends to attack.
*denotes 2020 games, shortened quarters.
Boak - 90*, 121, 101
Houston - 72*, 89, 89 (tagged Tim Kelly, HBF in the others)
Rockliff - 58*, DNP
Wines - 68*, 77, 89
Gray - 46*, 115, 126 (midfield roles)
Lycett - 64*, 130 (against Stanley both times)
Hawkins - 123*, 26, DNP (6 goals as Geelong isolated him 1v1)
Guthrie - 98*, 80 (midfield roles)
Dangerfield - 95*, 110, 109 (midfield roles)
Duncan - 95*, 116, 90 (should have been more, low TOG with a late injury)
Stewart - 84*, 84
Menegola - 73*, DNP, 103
Selwood - 47*, 71, 112
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